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Sam Heller | سام هيلر@abujamajem.bsky.social |
594 followers 175 following 1228 posts
Researcher and analyst looking at Lebanon, Syria and the wider neighborhood. Century International Fellow. Former Crisis Group. "Jamajem" means ☠️.
www.abujamajem.com
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Jonathan Spyer account of Iranian arms smuggling to the West Bank suggests weapons bound for West Bank militants are entering Jordan via the same Suweida routes used for Captagon and other drugs: www.jpost.com/middle-east/...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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When I run without a backpack loaded with vegetables, and also my laptop: www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYH...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Latest UN vulnerability assessment of Syrian refugees in Lebanon: reliefweb.int/report/leban...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Doug Ollivant for @warontherocks.bsky.social on how the Sudani government's policy agenda matches up with (or doesn't) the Biden administration's vision for the U.S.-Iraqi bilateral relationship: warontherocks.com/2024/06/iraq...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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MSF Lebanon on how new Lebanese measures targeting Syrians have made life harder for displaced Syrians whom MSF supports in Baalbek-Hermel, and limited their access to basic medical care: www.msf.org/syrian-refug...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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New 2024-2026 Swedish regional strategy for Syria announced last month incorporates new objectives 👇🏻 related to countering irregular migration and enabling voluntary returns: www.government.se/press-releas...
Sweden's previous strategy (2016-2023): www.government.se/internationa...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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The National's Lizzie Porter on leak of personal data of hundreds of thousands of Syrians living in Turkey: www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...
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Nina Metz
@ninametz.bsky.social
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Wallace Shawn on Gaza: “The Anger of the Palestinians Cannot Be Ended by Killing Their Children” The playwright, actor, and member of Jewish Voice for Peace challenges the notion that all Jews support Israel's actions Via THR
10 replies 339 reposts 995 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Jama'ah Islamiyah leader Taqqoush meets with Hamas's Haniyeh: www.al-jamaa.org/%D8%A3%D8%AE...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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a) Does Erdogan expect Assad to visit Ankara and give him a political win without a clear commitment from Turkey to withdraw from northern Syria?
b) Rhetoric about a "new social contract," etc., sounds inconsistent with respect for Syria's sovereignty.
www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-ea...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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L'Orient Today's Stephanie Bechara on World Bank-KNOMAD report: Lebanon received $6.7b in remittances in 2023; 30.7 percent of GDP, third highest ratio in the world: today.lorientlejour.com/article/1419...
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Abu Aardvark (on leave, allegedly)
@abuaardvark.bsky.social
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“Israel has seized control of 26 percent of the Gaza Strip.. Palestinians are barred from entering, residential buildings were destroyed, vegetation has been uprooted and the IDF built a new road with four bases. "This is an effort toward a prolonged occupation.”
www.haaretz.com/opinion/edit...
1 replies 15 reposts 23 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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From Sunday: Al Jazeera publishes video of Israeli military using captive Palestinians as human shields – sending them into boobytrapped buildings and tunnels as defenseless, camera-rigged minesweepers: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSbW...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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@nytimes.com' Vivian Yee, "What to Know as Israel and Hezbollah Stand on Brink of New War" www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/w... Includes my thoughts.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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AP's Wafaa Shurafa on how Israel is still bombing the miserable "safe zone" into which it has concentrated most Gazans: apnews.com/article/isra...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Results highlight mix of safety and more material (livelihoods, services) concerns currently discouraging returns. 3/3
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Very few refugees in any host country said they intend to return in the next 12 months, but a majority of Syrians in Lebanon, in particular, said they hope to return in the next five years / some day. 2/3
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Important: New edition of UNHCR annual Return Perceptions and Intentions Survey of Syrian refugees regionwide: data.unhcr.org/en/documents...
Results mostly consistent with 2023; conditions inside Syria still tend to be main driver of decision-making around return.
1/3
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Hizbullah deputy leader reiterates to AP: only sure path to Blue Line disengagement is Gaza ceasefire. Reaction if Israel shifts to lower-intensity warfare unclear; will assess then. And even if Israel tries "limited" offensive, should not expect it stays limited: apnews.com/article/hezb...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Economist analysis of how larger Israel-Hizbullah war would play out; echoes @nytimes.com report on Israeli security sources' concerns about lack of readiness for more open war in Lebanon, preference for a deal: www.economist.com/middle-east-...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Lebanese army announces receipt of $20 million gift from Qatar; will distribute donation across army personnel after administrative steps completed: www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar/%D8%B3%D9...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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So if – per @nytimes.com – Israeli military leaders want to scale back their Gaza ambitions to refit for conflict with Hizbullah or to negotiate some de-escalation, that would seem to vindicate Hizbullah's theory of the case for its Gaza "support front," no? www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/w...
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CHOAM Nomsky 💭
@thielman.bsky.social
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Oh boy, $150,000!
104 replies 1202 reposts 7006 likes
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Abu Aardvark (on leave, allegedly)
@abuaardvark.bsky.social
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“Liberal Alliance” featuring Saudi Arabia, Israel and Jordan 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
5 replies 4 reposts 24 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Iraqi resistance coordinating body says that if Israel follows through with threatened offensive on Lebanon, Iraqi factions will treat U.S. targets in Iraq and across the region as legitimate targets: muqawamalogy.com/2024/06/30/n... via @azelin.bsky.social
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Newly arrived Israeli consul general in New York promotes anti-Muslim bigotry: nypost.com/2024/06/29/u...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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More on Israeli "bubbles"/"humanitarian enclaves" scheme: www.ft.com/content/d6a5...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Fidaa Abdulfattah for Al-Akhbar on the perverse effects of General Security moves to close off channels to legal residency for Syrians, and to deport violators who typically just turn around and re-enter illegally: al-akhbar.com/Lebanon/383718
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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And of course, since the Israelis bombed that Iranian consular facility in Damascus, we can’t assume they won’t act like real stupids and get everyone in trouble
1 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Azadeh Moaveni's dispatch for @londonreview.bsky.social from election-time Tehran: www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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A+
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Like, are you stupid 👇🏻? Do you think Hizbullah is going to be chill about Israel invading southern Lebanon and then, what, occupying a several-kilometer buffer zone?
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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U.S. officials reportedly had to tell their Israeli counterparts that there's no such thing as a "limited" invasion of southern Lebanon that avoids a major escalation, because of course there isn't, you absolute goons: www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...
1 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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EU mission in Lebanon highlights assistance for Lebanese army – for military health care, in particular – and says more to come, per von der Leyen announcement: x.com/euinlebanon/...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Arab League official says League no longer classifies Hizbullah as a terrorist organization, permitting dialogue with the party: today.lorientlejour.com/article/1418...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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I'm old enough to remember the pained-sounding way the Pod Save guys talked about Biden's performance in the 2019-20 debates, because Biden had, even then, clearly lost a step. Then Biden consolidated the nomination, and they tried to get with the program. But they were right!
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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WSJ: In official Israeli discussions of Gaza "day after," idea of civilian "islands" or "bubbles" – camps in which Israel would concentrate Gazan noncombatants (🖼️ 1) – reportedly gaining currency: www.wsj.com/world/middle...
It's called "population control" (🖼️ 2, 3, 4): tcf.org/content/comm...
6 replies 9 reposts 19 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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@washingtonpost.com's @kareemf.bsky.social, John Hudson and Sarah Dadouch on U.S. efforts to mediate a de-escalation between Hizbullah and Israel and avert a larger war: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/0...
Ha, what a dummy 👇🏻
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weeder
@weeder.bsky.social
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Hard Lemonade creates strong men. Strong men create Country Time Lemonade. Country Time Lemonade creates weak men. And, weak men create Hard Lemonade.
9 replies 50 reposts 276 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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I mean, they weren’t last time. Let’s see if they’ve gotten more flexible.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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So are the Turks willing to commit to withdrawing their forces from Syria? (Not immediately – eventually, at some agreed future point.)
Because last time they weren’t, and things got stuck.
x.com/ragipsoylu/s...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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@hrw.org on deportations of Syrians from Iraq – including Syrians possessing legal Iraqi residency or registered with UNHCR – as part of crackdown on illegal foreign labor: www.hrw.org/news/2024/06...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Yeah, I think the U.S. and Israel are doing a good cop/bad cop routine to intimidate Hizbullah into de-linking the Lebanon front from Gaza.
(Which, to be clear, doesn't necessarily mean the threat of an Israeli attack isn't real.)
x.com/amalsaad_lb/...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Oh great, the Biden administration is partially unfreezing a shipment of bombs that Israel will use in an offensive against Lebanon: www.axios.com/2024/06/27/u...
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Michael Hanna
@mwhanna.bsky.social
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Israel’s threatened termination of a banking waiver would cripple West Bank banking and could hasten an economic meltdown. That risks a collapse of the Palestinian Authority, which is the point for Smotrich.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
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Jonathan Cohn
@jonathancohn.bsky.social
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Just so disgusted by the (all but 2) Republicans and 62 Democrats (see below) who voted to ban US officials from acknowledging the death toll in Gaza.
clerk.house.gov/Votes/2024313
31 replies 180 reposts 483 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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@politico.com’s Lara Seligman and Erin Banco: Aid groups refusing to deliver aid arriving via Gaza pier because of security concerns, due in part to Israeli hostage rescue/mass killing that used truck resembling aid vehicle and exfiltrated from close to pier: www.politico.com/news/2024/06...
2 replies 9 reposts 16 likes
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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Syrian central bank directs private banks to extend working hours to help citizens open accounts; reflects government inclination to transition from in-kind support to cash assistance, which will require ration card holders to open bank accounts: sana.sy?p=2105918
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر
@abujamajem.bsky.social
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I think the reports' "Internal protection alternative" sections analyzing Damascus do a good job laying out the layered reasons why even a relatively "safe" area might be unlivable because of an individual's profile, or because they lack resources to support themselves. 4/4
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