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comfortero.bsky.social

@comfortero.bsky.social

179 followers 39 following 32 posts

President & CEO @crisisgroup

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Polls in Iran on 28 June. Whoever emerges as the Islamic Republic’s ninth president will face significant challenges from day one: social discontent, the anaemic economy, contentious relations with Israel and the U.S. and the future of its nuclear program.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

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Hundreds of thousands of Sudanese civilians are caught in the crossfire with war intensifying in North Darfur and its capital El Fasher, under siege from the Rapid Support Forces.

Concerted pressure is urgently needed to get all sides to de-escalate.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...

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Mairav Zonszein, senior analyst for Israel-Palestine @crisisgroup.org: “The big story is that this is no longer ‘creeping annexation’ or ‘de facto annexation’, it is actual annexation.”

www.theguardian.com/world/articl...

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Heavily mined and devastated, areas reconquered by Ukraine late in 2022 are struggling to recover.

With Kyiv's attention understandably absorbed by the war, the government should not neglect its liberated areas.

And foreign donors must help it rebuild.
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

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Stephen Bush's avatar Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social
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Terrific piece on why different UK election projections show different things:

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Lawrence Freedman's avatar Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social
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With a new government will come new strategies. This post is for those charged with writing them, in and out of government, as a guide to the problems often faced when putting together strategy documents.
samf.substack.com/p/on-writing...

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Having watched the power of TikTok in Indonesia, France, and Pakistan, here’s how it’s not making impact…yet…in the UK’s election. Traditional media, including the good old BBC is where it’s at!! Call it generational too!!!

www.economist.com/britain/2024...
from The Economist

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Sudan's war has severely disrupted South Sudan's oil exports, putting the people further at risk of a worsening humanitarian crisis.

Donors should monitor the immediate threat of famine and hike their support for agencies struggling to respond.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...

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Cameroon's poorest region is experiencing recurrent inter-communal frictions over water reserves.

To help resolve tensions between Choa Arab leaders and Musgum fisherfolk, international partners should help Cameroon strengthen its climate security.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/centr...

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As Israel now weighs what to do, the rules of engagement between it and Iran are being rewritten in perilous ways. Still, further escalation is not inevitable. All sides are now in a position to step back from confrontation. They should do so. 

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

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👀 on #Pakistan's elections in two days, with the electoral commission facing major challenges in overseeing a transparent and inclusive ballot.

In such a polarised context, we at Crisis Group look at how authorities can still avoid the worst-case scenarios: www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-a...

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In DRCongo President Tshisekedi can’t vote away his problems: country’s dangerous fault lines & regional tensions. On this, he’d be well advised to repair relations with his East African counterparts & avoid playing regional organisations against each other

www.crisisgroup.org/africa/great...

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Lyta Gold's avatar Lyta Gold @lytagold.bsky.social
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broke: we should elect only women politicians because women are naturally more moral and peaceful woke: we should elect only women politicians bc men worldwide are losing their goddamn minds

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)'s avatar Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social
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On a new @crisisgroup.bsky.social Hold Your Fire podcast, I talk to host Richard Atwood about the war in Ukraine. We cover dynamics of attrition, prospects for diplomacy, and most, if not all, of the rest of it. Listen in!

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If Israel is to comply with the ICJ ruling ordering measures to prevent genocidal acts, military operations in Gaza must end.

Continuing the war until "total victory” over Hamas is unsustainable both for Israel and Palestinian civilians.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

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This hits close to home.

Today, we publish the story of our researcher in Gaza, Azmi Keshawi, through a recollection of voice messages he has sent us since 7 October.

Azmi’s family's struggle to survive Israel's onslaught should haunt us all.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

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On 4 January, Myanmar’s military surrendered a city to the ethnic armed group Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, in a deal brokered by China. Richard Horsey says it is the most significant ground the military has given up in decades.

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The escape of gang leader Adolfo Macias, leading to an eruption of gang violence in Ecuador, has prompted President Noboa to declare an “internal armed conflict”. Important for the government to first regain control of prisons, says Glaeldys González Calanche.

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Experts Mairav Zonszein and Tahani Mustafa say that Blinken’s meeting with Netanyahu is unlikely to change the war’s course. Absent U.S. support for a permanent ceasefire, the humanitarian catastrophe in the strip is likely to worsen.

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Nearly 20 million Taiwanese will go to the polls on Sat 13th January in a pivotal election.

Whoever becomes a new president will face the challenge of maintaining peace and play a critical role in managing tensions with Beijing, Taipei and Washington.

warontherocks.com/2024/01/a-po...

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Crisis Group's avatar Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org
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Thank you for all your support in 2023 🙏 Here's to a new year with more diplomacy and less wars 🕊

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No their political lines are not compatible even with their regional body, let alone Europe! On this I agree. And thank you for your observations and comments on the paper. As you imply, there’s still much to unravel about these coups and what else they can tell us.

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Andrew Stroehlein's avatar Andrew Stroehlein @andrewstroehlein.bsky.social
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Israeli military sending warnings for people in south Gaza to evacuate, but: ➡️ maps they provide are confusing & error-ridden ➡️ hard to access maps on phone when Israel military block communications & cut power for phone charging ➡️ fact is, there’s no safe place to flee to

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“Realpolitik and protecting the national interest involve concessions and compromises. They may also entail new, extraneous or unpredictable factors, such as human rights and climate change — not issues that bothered, until he had long left his positions of power, Henry Kissinger”
on.ft.com/3R5lwms

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Welcome step! Something we’ve been urging including deescalation on #Taiwan. Good to see that too.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping agree to resume high-level military communication on.ft.com/3uiBh1J

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Rima I Anabtawi's avatar Rima I Anabtawi @rimaanabtawi.bsky.social
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“We cannot accept that the brutal nature of war is some kind of fait accompli. And we cannot and must not lose sight of the fact that there are laws that govern the conduct of these hostilities. There is no blank cheque, even in war. “
By Karim Khan of the ICC

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

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Michael Hanna's avatar Michael Hanna @mwhanna.bsky.social
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A very useful overview from my colleagues on current escalatory spiral of strikes and counterstrikes with Iran-backed groups against the backdrop of Israel’s offensive in Gaza. Stark reminder of how conflict can become more regionalized and further enmesh the US.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

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