Chris Bertram's avatar

Chris Bertram

@crookedfootball.bsky.social

1869 followers 1576 following 2043 posts

Political philosophy and theory, migration, refugees, Rousseau, photography, French literature, Crooked Timber, books, Bristol ... Wrote "Do States Have the Right to Exclude Immigrants" (Wiley/Polity, 2018).

Reposted by Chris Bertram

Taniel 's avatar Taniel @taniel.bsky.social
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In a new French poll, respondents are hating on pretty much every possible configuration of could govern. Only-Left, Macronists + left, Macronists + left + right, Macronists + right... None gets more than 39% approval, and none gets less than 60% disapproval.

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Pretty much the same decision went against us v Brighton 2 or 3 years back. 50:50 in the box. Was annoyed then

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Before driving to England yesterday, made a trip to the déchetterie and spotted a man dumping 100s of books. “Nobody wants them, it is the internet” he told us. Too pressed for time to go through the lot, but saved illustrated history of the town and a history of the Languedoc. O tempora, o mores!

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Lots of articles saying that the French left needs to compromise with the Macronists. Where are the ones urging the Macronists to compromise with the left?

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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I said "he was willing", not that it was his aim. If the reports in Le Monde are correct he had become reconciled to the prospect whereas Attal had not.

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Seamus Heaney's The Cure at Troy is a marvellous work. Its rhetorical and ceremonial use by Clinton and Biden can't much help its reception though (even its readership is thereby increased).

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Since Macron tried to sabotage withdrawal of third-place candidates from his party, it is hard to see how the failure of that effort vindicates him. It looks more and more clear that he was willing to cohabit in the hope that the RN would discredit themselves in government. He utterly miscalculated.

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Reposted by Chris Bertram

Casmilus's avatar Casmilus @casmilus.bsky.social
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Is the original version of that joke from Milovan Djilas, the Serbian communist who fell out with Tito? Something like: "the trouble with Marxism is trying to predict the past".

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Well, social science generally takes its time to work out where it went wrong, newspapers tell you what happens next within a couple of hours

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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The media: something happened that we totally failed to predict, here's our guide to what happens next

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Press reading guideline: anything described in an opinion piece as a "Ponzi scheme" is not, in fact, a Ponzi scheme

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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There’s a case that in both the UK and France electors are distributed into roughly thirds between left, centre and right. But different party boundaries and electoral systems delivered solid centre-left majority in one case while the other just escaped extreme nationalist disaster

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Well there was a worry the Macron and LR voters would just abstain

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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No FT, "most seats" would be a majority of seats. That might happen, but it isn't what's expected

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Edward Chambré Hardman (whose Liverpool studio is now a National Trust property)

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Stephen Bush's avatar Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social
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I cannot for the life of me understand why England and France, the two best European sides at the World Cup, are both now playing like this Simpsons soccer match.

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Turkey - Netherlands fantastic. So much better than Boring Snoring England.

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Shitty of Southgate to make Trent take the last penalty. Thank goodness he scored or it would have been blame and hate. Commiserations to the Swiss, who made a better fist of things in regular play,

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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I blame Trent. Just nowhere to be seen, did absolutely nothing.

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Disney are pulling the plug on Biden, I'm told they think Mickey Mouse would stand a better chance

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Reposted by Chris Bertram

Taniel 's avatar Taniel @taniel.bsky.social
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Explosive reporting in Le Monde confirms what was apparent all week: Macron resisted the emergence of anti-far-right front after round 1. His PM, Attal, forced it as a fait accompli, & pressured for drop outs to block RN. Even then, Macron made some phone calls to undercut it.

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Germany planning to win by crippling their opponents?

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Greens won one Bristol seat and are in 2nd place in all the others (very strong in Bristol E). A template for breakthrough in cities against a backsliding Labour

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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True, but insofar as FPTP incentivises tactical voting and insofar as it actually happens, the mismatch between share of votes and share of seats may not support a robust counterfactual about what would happen under a different system

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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The age profile of the Reform vote will be interesting to see. A good chance that the Tories will hare off after voters who’ll be dead next time and make themselves more vulnerable to Lib Dems in the process

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Very pleased at the Green seats! All 4 target seats and a springboard to more next time, plus some voices to hold Labour to account on climate and human rights

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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and I'd even googled to make sure I spelt Smyth correctly, ah well...

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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My proxy is voting Green for me in Bristol South, I hope, with the good expectation of a second-place finish that will have the Labour MP (the awful apparatchik Karen Smyth) looking over her left shoulder

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Isn't the obvious interim solution for the EU (and other states) to deem expired Belarus documents as valid?

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Reposted by Chris Bertram

ændra.'s avatar ændra. @aendra.com
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I feel the UK dropping from 1st to 17th in the ILGA Rainbow Europe rankings is a bit of an omission in this...

rainbowmap.ilga-europe.org

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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Well it does have the advantage of building a political base for rights

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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"it did its job of hostile-framing Labour". Hmm. Personally, I supported a second referendum because I wanted a second referendum. I also voted Labour in 2019.

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Chris Bertram's avatar Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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I'm old enough to remember when liberal progressives like Ronald Dworkin pushed the line that the US Supreme Court was a fount of supra-democratic wisdom and the the path to equality and justice. Maybe engaging in regular democratic politics to secure liberal aims would have worked out better.

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