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GOLIKEHELLMACHINE@golikehellmachine.com |
i’m just asking you to take a moment to consider this from biden’s perspective: most of the fundamentals still look good for him. he’s beaten trump once. swapping the nominee this late has never worked, and there is *every* reason to believe republicans in every contested state would contest it
18 replies 33 reposts 252 likes
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Brian Spears
@briankspears.bsky.social
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Just to add, Trump’s whole political persona is built on being a successful bully. Biden dropping out would strengthen that persona immeasurably. And it’s not like much of the mainstream media would try to counter that.
1 replies 1 reposts 13 likes
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Gayzillionaire
@godzillionaire.bsky.social
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And not for nothing the panicky calls to drop out are not taking any post-debate polling (early as it is) into account! He dropped a pt or two so is still statistically dead heat in one- which is where he’s averaged and not unusual for an incumbent 1st debate. The voters at large don’t seem to care
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Malraux
@malraux.bsky.social
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If we swap now, absent sudden health event like aneurism, stroke, etc, the message will be that Dems lied to everyone about Biden’s health and that the public shouldn’t trust them.
0 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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N F
@natef.bsky.social
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Fortunately the contestation part is more annoyance than a real problem, but yes, agree otherwise
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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DSA Wellbutrin Caucus
@goconolly.bsky.social
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Can you explain more about what you mean by "most of the fundamentals"? I'm not sure that we're thinking of the same ones.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Aaron van Dorn
@aaronvandorn.bsky.social
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And Biden is *manifestly* not in serious decline!
0 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Ryan Godfrey
@rgo.bsky.social
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What would be the grounds for contesting Harris's nomination by her party, assuming she's the choice of her party's delegates at her party's convention?
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Stephen Webb
@stephenwebb.bsky.social
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You could *try* to argue that the GOPs in the various contested states (AZ WI MI PA) are in various levels of disarray and aren't equipped for that fight, but it still means your committing resources to that fight that could be spent on advertisements calling Trump an asshole
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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GOLIKEHELLMACHINE
@golikehellmachine.com
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if, after having considered all of this, you still come to that conclusion, well, at least you have an informed opinion, but it’s a one-time thing, we do not get to load a previous save if it goes badly
0 replies 0 reposts 38 likes
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GOLIKEHELLMACHINE
@golikehellmachine.com
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it’s just incredibly frustrating that no one’s even pretending to look at this from a whole picture standpoint, it is not a small thing, and it is likely, from an odds standpoint based on precedent, to fail.
11 replies 7 reposts 110 likes
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Alex Cruikshanks
@alexsaysstuff.bsky.social
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I think they'd struggle to contest it if Harris were the replacement, but then again we're back to the open convention fantasists' desire to leapfrog Harris as well.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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'viktor shtrum'
@viktorshtrum.bsky.social
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That's a great point - they would do that nonsense they tried in Ohio and elsewhere about the convention date and the state deadline
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Erin Siobhan
@erinsiobhan.bsky.social
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I think Harris would make a fine candidate and president, but I just can't get past feeling like doing a swap at this point in the campaign is the equivalent of posting a flashing neon sign to disengaged voters that says "WE'RE LOSING LOSERS WHO CAN'T CREDIBLY GOVERN"!
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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⏱📋David Steinberg⏱📋
@zzyzx.bsky.social
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While I don't think that swapping makes any sense, if it happens before the convention, how could it be contested? If the delegates all voted for Harris, what grounds would they have?
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Tom Wrongbottom 🍦
@wrongbottom.bsky.social
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with any and all signal changes it's going to be noise. Especially because we're ignorant, uncoordinated, and free... It's the dumbest thing to do. Would you shoot yourself in the foot before climbing a mountain? Fuck, would you do it before sitting down to watch a movie?
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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DeathsHead419
@deathshead419.bsky.social
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The pundit class smells blood in the water and want drama.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mike Puterbaugh
@mike.puterbaugh.net
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Closest comparison that comes to mind is NJ Dems tapping Lautenberg as an 11th-hour replacement for Sen. Torricelli in 2002, but all the details of that election were different.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Shiv Ramdas
@nameshiv.bsky.social
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where's that WFAN skeet again, it was excellent
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes