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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Indeed. Seeing my home county of Surrey flush orange has been astonishing. Tories have lost small-c ethical conservatives.
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Gregory Norminton@gregorynorminton.bsky.social |
594 followers 682 following 485 posts
Yet another writer. Environmentalist. gregorynorminton.com/
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Indeed. Seeing my home county of Surrey flush orange has been astonishing. Tories have lost small-c ethical conservatives.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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I could massage that data by adding SNP and PC votes to the centre/centre-left: 891,753 votes, 3.1% share. But I think it's simpler to leave them out of the UK-wide equation. Low turnout is a problem. I suspect we'll find out that oldies voted in big numbers, young people did not.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Centre/centre-left vote (Labour/Lib Dem/Green): 15,538,253 votes 52.9% share Centre-right/Far-right vote (Cons/RefUK): 10,888,178 38% share 2029 is going to be a tough one. Everything - literally - to fight for.
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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2. Labour held steady in total votes, but combined with the fractured vote on the right, won a historic parliamentary majority. This is in line with trends elsewhere in Europe. The far right rises and wins when the center-left atomizes (Italy, France) and falls short when it holds (Spain, Portugal).
2 replies 34 reposts 165 likes
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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A Labour win: here's what it means for climate action.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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I hope so too. But populism is rampant pretty much everywhere, and the crises coming our way will likely supercharge it.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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That Labour share of the vote looks small, too. I would have felt a lot happier if it were a lot higher - it means a defeat in five years (to Farage or a Farageist Tory Party) is more likely.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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It says everything about the effect of the past decade's politics on my psyche that the exit poll was announced and all I could see was 13 seats - 13! - for the far right. I remember hope and exhilaration in 1997. Now, all I feel is dread.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Dégagez, les fachos.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Imagine the crowing - that nicotine-stained, batrachoidal mouth agape with glee in tomorrow's papers. Ugh.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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My election prediction: Reform UK will be the turd in our victory night cocktail.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Yup. First election of any kind in a decade that hasn't filled me with existential dread. Better not get used to it.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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In three weeks I will turn 48. In my lifetime, Britain has changed government only three times. Hoping for a fourth on the fourth of July.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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The Progress Trap illustrated.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
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I don’t like first past the post and in general prefer minority governments or coalitions. But I think it would be very bad for everyone if Sunak’s Conservative party didn’t get a notably worse result than Major’s, because the cynical and lazy approach of the last two years would appear validated.
7 replies 27 reposts 135 likes
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Today on the anti-fascist playlist:
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Amongst many other horrible things, the RN hopes to make dual nationals second-class citizens. So we have that motivation as well.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Trying to vote online in round two of the catastrophic French elections. The website has crashed. Not surprisingly: of the 10 overseas constituencies, not one has a far right candidate in the second round. Travel broadens the mind, eh?
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Anti-fascism - but with correct spelling, please.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Let Woody Guthrie speak to our moment. open.spotify.com/track/649Zk1...
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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At the very least, Trump will turn the US into a giant version of Hungary. One of many frightening questions then: will California and New York State and New England want to stay in a benighted neo-fascist union?
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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America is teetering on the edge of the abyss. The corrupt Supreme Court has given Trump total immunity for crimes committed while in office. If, as seems likely, he takes the Presidency in November, he can become a tyrant.
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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Massive and repeated flooding in Switzerland. Thousands of heat related deaths in southeast Asia and the Middle East. What’s looking like an absolutely devastating hurricane about to hit the Caribbean. Welcome to Global Weirding, brought to you by a minority of companies + countries.
6 replies 130 reposts 271 likes
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Also: Macron, you arrogant imbecile.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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The French live in paradise and thinks it's hell. Now it looks like they're set to reverse the formula. Another election I'm glad my Maman didn't live to see.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Pundits asking whether Britain's racists will be put off voting for the racist party by evidence of its racism do rather answer their own question.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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A little article that shows what marvels we can accomplish when we don't sabotage ourselves with terrible political choices:
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Dread, fear, scalp-shrinking panic. They're all back, as the foothills of Trump's second term rise on the horizon.
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Melissa Gira Grant
@melissagiragrant.com
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“To not mention climate change in a breaking news story about record heat in June 2024 is like not mentioning COVID-19 in a breaking news article about record hospitalizations in March 2020.”
2 replies 39 reposts 127 likes
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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CCHQ being run by the ghost of Ian Paisley.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Told my wife this was the Tory campaign's closing poster. She refused to believe me. Election extinction next Thursday is the very least they deserve.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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This is the Tony Gallagher effect. He is turning THE TIMES into THE TELEGRAPH. Even as its sales deservedly plummet.
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Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
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Sunak’s most significant political legacy is that he has brought a form of climate denial politics firmly into the mainstream of British politics, to the point that “a bland statement about a ‘cost’ both parties are committed to” is being written up like this in the Times.
7 replies 51 reposts 94 likes
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Because, as always, our commentariat is ecologically blind and our politicians are chasing the same small section of the electorate. I've yet to see one media assessment of a Green Party vote which is polling at double what it got in 2019.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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The last party leaders' debate of the General Election tonight. Chance of serious questions and answers on the cascading ecological emergency:
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Maybe you had a drier spring than us, Claire. Things are looking a bit brighter this afternoon: a decent showing of bumblebees and hoverflies in the brambles. Striking how insects seem to prefer species they've long had a relationship with over nectar-rich garden imports.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Admittedly, metres away there is an abundance of flowering bramble. What bees there are are spoiled for choice right now. Even so, the stillness and quietness are frightening. I do everything I can to create a wildlife garden, but what can a tiny space achieve amid so much desolation?
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Breakfast in the garden - which is full of pollinator-friendly flowers after a week of sun. No pollinators.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Journalists want Trump to win because chaos and dysfunction are better for ratings than sober government.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Just voted online in the first round of the French Legislative elections. Needed a PhD in fiddly code gathering, and low blood pressure - but I got there. (Voted for Macron's party, though expecting a far right nightmare.)
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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"Promising climate commitments from the Labour Party include the creation of Great British Energy... as well as investment in green homes and an end to new oil and gas licences. However, their investment in the green transition doesn’t go far enough. You can’t deliver real change with spare change."
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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"The Conservative Party’s manifesto is worrying reading. They’re doubling down on oil and gas... no credible plan to stop sewage in our rivers and seas... They’re promising new gas plants and more dependence on... fossil fuels that... will increase our climate-wrecking emissions."
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Greenpeace & Friends of the Earth manifestos scorecards - out of 40 green policy recommendations: Green Party: 39 Lib Dems: 31.5 Labour: 20.5 Conservatives: 5.0
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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Yeah, I'm not a fan of their strategy. But again: very little attention when they targeted private jets the following day. It suits the powerful that they also do inept things like defacing ancient monuments.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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In my (admittedly limited) experience of farmers, there's a growing gap between the younger ones & the older ones. Risky to generalise; there are plenty of pro-nature farmers. Also, re. the rural vote - farmers are now a small proportion. Plenty choose to live in countryside for its 'green' virtues.
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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The environmental blindness of our commentariat is a major problem. They set the parameters of discourse, and politics shapes itself accordingly.
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Aarne Granlund
@aarnegranlund.bsky.social
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I have not seen a poll in which the majority of voters does not support strong climate action and nature restoration.
The top-down politics are not in tune with democratic wishes of people if they do not deliver on these issues. #RestoreNature
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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(Coverage on Channel 4 News and in the Guardian. But not a peep from our cowering BBC, and of course, nothing whatsoever in the Tory press.)
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Gregory Norminton
@gregorynorminton.bsky.social
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There would appear to be a real chance that Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire could elect Green Party MPs. 'Deep blue' rural seats, full of people who notice stuff like extreme weather and sewage-filled rivers. You'd think the ecological emergency might be an electoral issue.
6 replies 2 reposts 15 likes