NEW: analysis of millions of books published over the centuries suggests western society is shifting away from a culture of progress, and towards one of caution, worry and risk-aversion.
I think this is one of the most important challenges facing us today.
It would be great if progress could enhance our habitat rather than convert it into a giant, polluted shopping mall. But humanity can’t regulate its consumption on a planetary basis. So if it has to be a choice between “nasty, brutish and short” or “progress” to extinction, then I’m with shorty.
Generally a big fan of your work John but I cannot see the sense in drawing these conclusions from these data. Is it not more likely that people are making accurate appraisals of their prospects and the prospects of society in general?
It would help a lot to understand whether this is more or less a reflection of situations such as the AIDS crisis, global warming, and ocean plastics. If it’s mostly that, then maybe we just need to solve problems that we created with endless optimism and insufficient planning.
It's cool one can do this with these data. It's not a convincing argument overall (shouldn't people worry about nuclear weapons?). Sample selection seems like a problem for this methodology applied to recent years. Unfortunately, the book format may not drive debates like it did even 25 years ago.
My column this week explores how language and culture have historically played under-rated roles in human progress, and what that means for our present and future ft.com/content/e577...
Could the cause for that cultural change be the aftermath of two world wars, the invention of nukes and increasing awareness of climate catastrophe?
In which case couldn't increased caution be a good thing?
I wonder to what extent these social/emotional trends might be an unconscious reaction to the very real existential challenge of climate change. People respond to talk of CC by entering denial, but the provoked anxiety emerges/leaks as fear/defensiveness that can be manipulated by authoritarians.