John Pfaff

NanBP @nabbp.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 20:18 UTC

Rick Wilson of The Lincoln Project, former Republican and Republican strategist that I most loved to hate when he was doing political ads against my guy, said the Gop is planting the talking points and we’re just repeating them. You would think we would learn..

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 20:11 UTC

"Gorging on Panic." Fantastic band name, but also a perfect summary of things now.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:51 UTC

(Also, dumb typo: their share is 74% in 2009 and 78% in 2019, which has to be the case, since I also said their rate of growth was LESS than the national ave, so obv their share of the overall pop has to grow, not shrink.)

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:47 UTC

I define a county's Dem-vs-GOP-ness by the average share of the vote the Dem POTUS candidate got from 2008-2020. I'm sure there are other ways one could do this. I'm skeptical that they would change the fundamental results here. Decarceration is local, and it's not bipartisan.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:46 UTC

If we drop CA, which adopted a massive state-level change no other state attempted, then ... in my sample of 27 states, ALL the decline is driven by Dem-voting states, since on net GOP counties pushed prison pops up (tho their urbanest counties saw drops). The net GOP decline is a CA-GOP decline.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:44 UTC

Decarceration in the US has been almost exclusively a Dem-voting county endeavor, despite rhetoric abt bipartisanship. In a sample of 27 states (holding ~75% of the ppl in prison), Democratic-leaning counties were responsible for ~90% of the decline. And ironically, CA makes the GOP look good:

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 13:51 UTC

Ah, okay, I see the distinction. It's subtle, in a way, but also pretty big. Think I'll just delete my initial post then. Thanks!

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 13:50 UTC

But also, invocation of Kacsmaryk and the 5th Circuit aren't really about "what the new rule means" anyway. It doesn't matter what SCOTUS says about anything. They're going to do what they're going to do, new precedent or not.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 13:48 UTC

Yes, def! But within limits.

Someone #onhere got a lot of reposts saying "just think abt all the crazy homebrew aircraft the FAA currently keeps grounded--now Judge K can let them fly."

Keeping bad planes grounded is, I think, a core FAA function even the 5CA can't overcome.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:45 UTC

Serious question, asking not just for myself: Who out there is actually doing serious work on how other branches of govt, states, or the public more broadly can resist SCOTUS arrogation? I think Keith Whittington has written some stuff, right? But who else? Must be some who have?

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 20:31 UTC

Agree, but think we can aim higher: put the Court in strip malls in Kansas, not backrooms still in DC.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:52 UTC

Please repost this one far and wide. Like I said, I'm asking this for reasons that go beyond just my own academic interest (I don't have time for this one, trying to prove reform DAs aren't pro-criminal takes all my time), and would really love some names. Thanks!

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:45 UTC

Serious question, asking not just for myself: Who out there is actually doing serious work on how other branches of govt, states, or the public more broadly can resist SCOTUS arrogation? I think Keith Whittington has written some stuff, right? But who else? Must be some who have?

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:36 UTC

Congratupologies! (Congrats on #1, my apologies on #2)

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:33 UTC

Here's a rare chance for accountability in the punditocracy. Will all the people who praised Kav, Gorsuch, Roberts, et al *from the left* still get their takes published next year? Or will there actually be some real costs to such argument. (I'd obv bet on the former, but one can hope.)

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:32 UTC

The conflict of interest was so glaring, it should have required an acknowledgement in their bios. "This commentator's law school boasts about its SCOTUS clerkships, and profs take pride in `placing' ppl. They will thus be unwilling to bite the hand that feeds them. Judge these takes accordingly."

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 16:03 UTC

Yep. Far too often, norms of "collegiality" and "civility" are ways to ensure that those who do terrible things can't be confronted about them. Justices strip women of rights in polite legalese, and it's "rule of law." People protest at those justices' houses, and it's "impolite."

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:37 UTC

Also, just learned this, which is an awesome example of misnaming. Wilhoit's Law was not coined by noted political scientist Francis Wilhoit, but by an Ohio composer named Frank Wilhoit, in a blog comment. Keep posting, y'all. Sometimes comments hit it big.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:35 UTC

Shorter Version: Happy Wilhoit Day to all who celebrate.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:20 UTC

It's been working so well so far, no complaints, excited for this new chapter.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:20 UTC

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:14 UTC

The attack needs to be on all fronts: Doctrinal arguments to help lower courts tell SCOTUS to F off. Political and historical evidence to support the executive when it wants to ignore SCOTUS lunacy. Constant judicial and academic bashing of the Justices: make them professionally MIS.ER.A.BLE.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:13 UTC

No more hand-wringing over what it means to treat the Court as political. No more running away from teaching Con Law after Bush v Gore bc it feels "uncomfortable." What we need are strong, solid ideas about what principled resistance to a toxic but powerful institution looks like.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:11 UTC

The current liberal approach has been to pray Dems win every election, and then hold their breath hoping an inimical Court didn't do too much damage, or then-Justice Kennedy would miraculously swing left. Those easier doctrinal days are dead. The time of real resistance is here.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:10 UTC

I really, really, REALLY hope that there is a large group of Con Law scholars and lawyers working on what a coherent form of resistance to SCOTUS looks like. Something like the Originalist project, which took years, but laid an intellectual groundwork that has worked.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:09 UTC

I suppose a loophole here for lower courts to exploit is "what counts as an official act?" Like, maybe ordering the assassination of your political opponent isn't "an official act." Maybe taking a bribe from Saudi Arabia isn't either. (Obv SCOTUS could say they ARE, but until then....)

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:09 UTC

I suppose a loophole here for lower courts to exploit is "what counts as an official act?" Like, maybe ordering the assassination of your political opponent isn't "an official act." Maybe taking a bribe from Saudi Arabia isn't either. (Obv SCOTUS could say they ARE, but until then....)

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:05 UTC

Pack the Court with 1000 new justices, reverse 80% of its recent decisions, and then strip it of 99% of its jurisdiction. This Court is absolutely lawless and beneath contempt. And should be treated accordingly.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:04 UTC

Homeless people can be arrested for sleeping, Presidents cannot be arrested for rampant graft and corruption done while in office. There is no clearer a summary of "conservative 'law and order'" than this.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 03:45 UTC

My decision to take 95%-social media hiatus def appears to have been the right call (for me! YMMV, etc.). Even if hysteria ever dies down, not sure I'll ever put it back on my phone. Only three days in, and already finding my obsessive need to check non-stop waning... and my blood pressure w it.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 00:57 UTC

I will say this, though. It's clear the director grew up near Chicago (he lived in a Cook County suburb), because the opening credits to the second episode were a giant cinematic love-letter to the city that made me really miss it.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 00:19 UTC

Just watched S3E1 of The Bear, and .... I feel like it was less a TV show, more a Culinary Koyaanisqatsi. Not sure if that's a criticism, but not sure if it's a compliment either.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 18:59 UTC

Fair enough. But even that has been increasingly hard for me to deal with on here: the experts are all hedging, and the non-experts seem to be getting more and more confident with their claims. Which is at best half-backwards (expert hedging is good, confidence by either ... less so).

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 17:44 UTC

Yeah, in case any additional evidence was needed, this is definitive proof that all these AI things are designed by people who have never genuinely enjoyed things like reading, who see it all as some sort of task to complete, not a pleasure in and of itself.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 17:40 UTC

The downside of that same flattening is that expert opinion--which, again, while not always correct, is non-pundit expert opinion for a reason--will often get drowned out in a much deeper flood of overly-confident non-expert assertions. And this it is hard, mentally and emotionally, to filter well.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 17:39 UTC

Which, if IIRC, is what every political scientist who studies polling and presidential elections predicted. Upside of social media is helps experts escape professional bubbles, face ideas and criticisms they might otherwise miss: DEF the case for me w views of activists/abolitionists, etc. But:

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 04:48 UTC

Just finished my first day of not having any social media apps on my phone and ... man. Should have done this sooner! First, made me realize how mindlessly I apparently opened it during the day. Kept going to it and ... it wasn't there. Def addictive behavior that I (YMMV) had to solve directly.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 05:05 UTC

I think this is esp bad when it comes to Political Social Media, bc the stakes are higher, and the things that people are talking about are mostly outside of the control of even the non-average person. Like, even w my job, there's not much I can do, esp right now, to fix the new Chevron mess.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 05:03 UTC

Yeah, I think social media in general--I think inescapably--is a mood amplifier, bc it's everyone commenting all on the same thing all at once. So if it's something good or funny, it's great, but when things are not-so-good, it's just a firehouse of stress.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 04:53 UTC

And I guess I'd say it's not a bad thing to at least try. I was honestly surprised at how it felt.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 04:53 UTC

Just saying that, personally, I was surprised at how almost ... liberating ... it was to not have it on my phone. And how I felt like I was more present in general once I physically made it impossible to hop on it. Maybe someday I'll put it back on. But ... honestly? Maybe not.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 04:50 UTC

And second, was still able to stay aware of the various bad things that were going on, but in what was--again, for me, just being descriptive for me, not prescriptive for others, YMMV--a far mentally healthier way. More "I see this happened," less "I'm going to obsess over news I can't control."

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 04:48 UTC

Just finished my first day of not having any social media apps on my phone and ... man. Should have done this sooner! First, made me realize how mindlessly I apparently opened it during the day. Kept going to it and ... it wasn't there. Def addictive behavior that I (YMMV) had to solve directly.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 04:38 UTC

The part of it that really gets me is the negative correlation on the confidence. I know, I know: academics are notorious for answering "... it's complicated" even for "is today Monday?" But still. The confidence I see sometimes in their replies is still surprising.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 04:36 UTC

The correlation between a bio that suggests extensive rigorous studying of presidential elections and political communications and confident doomer takes is close to -1. There's a lot to be said, genuinely, for the social flattening of social media. But it has some real costs too.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 03:43 UTC

Yeah, I'm definitely sympathetic to that! It's why I can't stop doomscrolling myself, and had to physically remove the app from my phone to stop (and wish there was a way to make it so certain apps could be re-downloaded only if a third party enters a password).

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 03:31 UTC

Europe isn't going to take in 150,000,000 US refugees. Running somewhere else isn't a real solution. But going into a (possible--still merely possible!) second Trump term with zero emotional strength left bc of months of doomerizing seems ... really bad to me.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 03:30 UTC

Like, we all know the stakes are high, we all know the margins are far thinner than they should be. Most every regular poster on here is a high-info voter type. Just constantly yelling "we're all going to die" at each other for weeks seems ... unhealthy. And counterproductive.

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