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KA SEMENOVA@kasemenova.bsky.social |
76 followers 414 following 245 posts
Writer, editor, lapsed Russianist substack.com/@kasemenova?utm_source=byline
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Matthew Sheffield
@matthew.flux.community
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Senior Project 2025 executive says presidents should override the law and withhold spending on anything they don't like.
It might seem boring, but this is exactly how the far right plans to defund social welfare and states that won't go along w/Trumpism www.mediamatters.org/project-2025...
0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Almost all men. They just don't feel the visceral terror that women do abt a Trump admin that will ban abortion & birth control pills.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Zero. Resignation of the presidency is a mark of shame, only Nixon has done it, why wld he? It's a natl security risk, there's potential for constitutional crisis bc House is involved. And it's completely unnecessary, nobody is asking for that, except like 2 columnists.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Yep. Ohio Rs thought it gave them leverage so they tried to get a bill thru loaded with voter suppression BS, etc. When DNC outmaneuvered them with virtual convention, Rs said nevermind & passed clean bill.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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That July 21 virtual convention date is now moot, legally. Ohio changed the law so it's not necessary. Doesn't mean they might not go ahead anyway, if he decides to gut it out.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I just read the article. Frail doesn't even appear in it. He in fact does exactly what I describe: says the fundraiser night was bad, then it happened again, on debate stage. It accords with how most of us realize such things, ie when they repeat.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Because it's possible to believe that what you are seeing is an isolated instance. And then it happens again. And other ppl begin reporting what they thought might be a bad night. This is a very strange line of attack, as if more info never develops over time.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Okay. I thought this was abt the earlier argument but my take is the same: An old person who isn't hurting the party by staying is one thing; an old person who is doing damage is another.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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It is not. Mitch McConnell would not have allowed a replacement for Feinstein on Judiciary, which was key to Biden’s court appointments. Pelosi is refusing to do so now bc Biden is not helping the party as Feinstein, however addled, was.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I know, it is deeply unpleasant.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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She was signaling that she does not consider the matter closed, that Biden has not succeeded in closing down discussion. This is how politicians do it. “Should” just isn’t a useful analytical tool.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Unfortunately, yeah. I mean, I don’t want that for him, my alarm alternates with sympathy bc I just went thru this with my mom & it’s so fucking hard to get old. I really wish he’d managed it gracefully but here we are & ultimately it’s abt us, not him.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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She has to go on TV to deliver the message bc Biden is not hearing it privately. I think there’s a lot of fear abt how tomorrow’s presser is going to go, btw. 45 minutes, just Biden & reporters. So this is also abt getting ahead of that.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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It was done by a D pollster. Why do you think elected Ds are freaking out, exactly? Don’t you think that ppl whose jobs are literally getting elected have a clue abt why this campaign isn’t working? Ppl are weird abt age. I think it triggers visceral fear in some but whatever, think what you want.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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There’s a new poll out on this specific issue, which is Biden’s theory of victory, & results aren’t great. Half of likely voters wouldn’t vote for a diminished Biden to stop Trump & one quarter of D’s wouldn’t either. So it doesn’t appear to be working.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I'm not going to do this. Right-wing & elite news will do what it does. The question is what opportunities it would give us to change convo with voters. Doom to somebody else pls
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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If they wanted to chase that story when he'd be out of office in a few months, so what. Spoiler: they wouldn't, they wouldn't gaf any him anymore bc he'd be old news
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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He won’t say he’s incompetent to campaign, he’ll say he can’t promise the next 4 years. Then go potus while Harris runs. A challenging media environment for next 4 months is a given; question is how changing focus & issues might help us. The narrative wouldn’t be set like it is now.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I don’t disagree. It’s all high risk. I’m surprised that D number is only 75%, tho. It seems high but flip it: one quarter of Ds wouldn’t vote for a diminished Biden to stop Trump. I didn’t expect that, honestly.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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That isn’t why pollsters ask the question tho. Hypotheticals help distinguish between antiparty sentiment vs anticandidate sentiment. To really oversimplify: If being D is the problem, then everybody would poll same as Biden. It doesn’t mean they think Michelle would actually run.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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www.politico.com/news/2024/07...
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Polling on Biden campaign’s theory of victory: “poll included a provocative question that asked likely voters whether they’d support Biden if he were cognitively diminished …& unlikely to complete another 4 years—if it meant preventing Trump from winning.” 48% no; 44% yes, incl 75% of Ds.
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Mark Chadbourn
@chadbourn.bsky.social
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New AARP poll of Wisconsin, taken after the debate: Trump: 44 Biden: 38 RFK: 9 Baldwin: 50 Hovde: 45
5 replies 3 reposts 13 likes
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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You started out objecting to "condescending" to voters & now you're condescending to electeds who see things differently? What is your point here? That you think everything is fine? Okay, good for you, I guess.
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Andrea Grimes
@andreagrimes.bsky.social
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IT'S NOT A 'SOFTENED' STANCE ON ABORTION IT'S ADVOCATING FOR FETAL PERSONHOOD UNDER THE 14TH AMENDMENT
www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Elected Ds are not raising concerns based on clickbait polls. Their jobs, & control of Congress, is at stake & they see internal data that's alarming. Most of the ppl Parker is referring to don't know this. They think this is all bc NYT & iffy public polling & that's just not true.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Sorry, not Pollyanna. I trained in history, I understand how fascism wins.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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The main reason the candidate is failing is bc he is failing. He is running behind D Senate candidates by 10 pts in some states. MN looks to be in play bc of him. This was predebate. That is why electeds are freaking out. They might sit down & shut up now but the problem still exists.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I think he actually did write it. Maybe not "write" but dictate. It's in all caps & sounds like him.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Yep. They are relying on the fact that most ppl have no idea how many staffers work at WH, how many different things they do, etc. They open space for inference in the headline deliberately, then close it in text which is behind a paywall.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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It says right in the text that 7 out of 8 meetings were w/a Walter Reed liaison, so it was likely policy/protocol discussions abt veterans w/Parkinson’s. Randos just said “it must’ve been new bill” when they saw headline bc it’s last “Parkinson’s” thing they can think of.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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His campaign team are on track to produce a historic disaster.
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Asawin Suebsaeng
@swin24.bsky.social
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Follow Mak, who’s covering this on the ground
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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It’s just a very odd leap to ask the average, not highly partisan voter to make: Here is a really old guy who will protect you, even if he dies next year. It is structurally true ofc. But did HRC warning ppl abt Trump/SCOTUS/Roe help? It seems to make ppl mad to suggest they don’t see danger.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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www.washingtonpost.com/elections/20...
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Biden strategist (inadvertently) encapsulates how we got here: “We have to get them [voters] to think the threat to their fundamental way of life is worse than the president dying in office.” That’s ok strategy for D base, which is mostly there. But as a strategy for low-info & swing voters?
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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She published a whole ass article on it a few days ago in the Atlantic! I am still amazed at such idiocy from someone I respect(ed?) & who knows the stakes!
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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You might consider that Dem leaders had no incentive to narc on Feinstein. Had disincentive, in fact, since McConnell wouldn’t allow her replacement on Judiciary. The many Dems leaking concern re Biden are already showing that this is a very different situation.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Ruth Ben Ghiat on forming counterrevolutionary cadres, from her piece in TNR:
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Includes: leading intellectual historians of fascism; member of fourth estate who learned firsthand what the Trump lash feels like; leading expert on civil-military relations; Guatemalan American novelist; … a man with all-too-real experience in living under a notorious authoritarian regime.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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The New Republic devotes June issue to American Fascism: What it Would Look Like
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Only half the states allow ballot initiatives or referendums to start with, & there’s many variations among those. In some states, the battle is in the statehouse over new or zombie abortion laws. Dobbs was written specifically to make a national strategy very difficult!
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wade of mutilation
@waderockett.bsky.social
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I will bang this drum forever: in THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE FREE: THE GERMANS, 1933-45 Milton Mayer interviewed 10 ordinary Germans after WW2 to learn how fascism took hold. There was never a moment when everyone woke up:
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Dr Emma L Briant
@emmalbriant.bsky.social
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A must read from Monbiot on the implications of a Trump win for the rest of the world: "In short, the UK and Europe will need to find the means of defending ourselves against a Trump regime and its allies." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Google it.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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Fair enough. But what if there is no messaging that can reach people who believe, fairly or not, that 81 is too old to start another potus term? According to reports, he’s running 10 pts behind D Senate candidates in some states. I find it hard to wave that away as bad polling.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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And all the unknowns abt performance & oppo etc are why it can only be Kamala, imo. At least she’s done this once, she inherits campaign $, etc. And I agree w/everyone abt media unfairness, ableism, etc. But I also believe there is good faith belief that this campaign is a disaster in the making.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I’m not talking about general polls so much as internal data. Elected Ds are seeing focus group results, etc & they know exactly where they’re not getting votes they could. Data isn’t perfect ofc but I think many of them genuinely believe he can’t win, & will cost us Congress too.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I don’t agree that that’s an assumption. The elected Ds who are seeing data & leaking to reporters know Harris, eg, has negatives, they know what media will do. But they assess that she can make a better case for abortion or the future or whatever, & reach voters who find Biden’s age a dealbreaker.
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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I disagree that fears abt electability are solely abt media. It's abt how he's actually polling among key swing voters in key states. Media will be problematic regardless; question is: wld a new candidate/Kamala be able to get those voters?
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