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Mr. Nick Beaudrot@nbeaudrot.bsky.social |
121 followers 55 following 1084 posts
Math Dad. Aspiring-to-comeback Triathlete. Fall Out Boy apologist.
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Jorge Caballero
@datadrivenmd.social
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How does a journalist go from stating that Project 2025 "is undeniably a Trump-driven operation" to "Heritage Foundation's Project 2025" in the span of 7 months?
3 replies 11 reposts 13 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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The Fred Armisen to Robin Thede's Jordan Peele.
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Somehow the "Project 2025" branding has juice, I guess it conjures up some cabal of old white men plotting to ruin the country. Decent low social trust outreach. Glad something is doing that.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I do think we can meme Biden or Harris into doing this.
2 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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just watched 74 people speaking at least a dozen different languages become american citizens in a ceremony at monticello, where the speakers were themselves children of immigrants. inspiring stuff and a vivid illustration of what reactionaries want to snuff out
72 replies 1052 reposts 5942 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I don't think we know that they'll vote. It's true that Trump is gaining little to no ground, but "two way vote share among voters who express an opinion" is still the most predictive. Harris is a clearly super alternative now and will be in a few weeks as well.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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The Institutionalist has presided over the largest decline in approval of the court in both elite and mass opinion
0 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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/5 …but it’s obvious that my statement can be introduced as evidence if I’m accused of murder. Contrast this type of Presidential immunity. Say Donald Trump, days into his second term, meets with the Department of Justice and demands a way to deport all Muslims, reviling them as subhuman.
2 replies 77 reposts 761 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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/4 More powerful, to a trial lawyer, is the prohibition on the use of immune acts as evidence. In almost every other context (save Speech & Debate), you can use things as evidence when you can’t prosecute for them. If I say “this man must die,” that’s usually protected by the First Amendment ….
5 replies 77 reposts 845 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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There are two elements to the immunity decision that are particularly extreme in a way that many will miss: (1) motive is irrelevant and (2) immune acts are not just excluded from prosecution, they’re excluded from evidence. /1
50 replies 905 reposts 2436 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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This is what's mind blowing on up of everything else. The SCOTUS conservatives haven't created a some of immunity out of some public safety or economic or military threat, they've created it for a mediocre real estate developer who tried to overturn an election.
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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If like 1 in every 1000 low turnout voters is answering polls because they're angry, but the turnout will be the same, it's all junk. There's also someone about old white Dems filing up the quota first, so everybody else gets skewed the other way.
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I guess "they're both old but Trump is nuts" is possible.
0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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post malone ergo propter malone
@proptermalone.bsky.social
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this year, man
1 replies 1 reposts 36 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Clinton 96 is the exception, but everyone understood Dole was drawing dead.
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drewtoothpaste
@drewtoothpaste.bsky.social
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My doctor: It's actually amazing he has survived Posting Disease for over 50 years. Me: A sesame seed bun should be made entirely of sesame seeds My doctor: If there's anything you want to say, do it now My grandchildren: Goodbye. We love you Me: Air conditioner where is air shampoo
2 replies 61 reposts 582 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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That's possibly weirder!
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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The French 2 phase parliamentary election process is absolutely bananas. The top *three* move on? But you can drop out?
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I don't know the mechanics here. I assume there's some way to keep the hard dollar committee but IDK.
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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The media market is very fractured, to "know" how the debate plays among dropoff and swing voters, you have to see what's happening in a lot of places.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Or Mayo Pete but I assume his plan is to run for Governor.
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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For the record my opinion is 1. No evidence Biden should drop out at the moment. 2. IF he does, Harris is the clear replacement. 3. TODAY I'd rather have not Harris but maybe her favorables change.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Harris is a new generation of politician but she has Biden-esque favorables. Dems would arguably be better off with a popular purple state governor (Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers, Polis, Beshear).
2 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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So my take on this is that a LOT (not all) of "Biden shouldn't run for a second term"/"Biden should drop out" is Shadow boxing around 2028.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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My biggest complaint is that I think they should have hired more Never Trump Republicans and business friendly Democrats, and just pick and choose on where to antagonize the business community.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Adam Serwer
@adamserwer.bsky.social
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Both the “black jobs” remark and using palestinian as a slur are hopefully clarifying as to actual Trump’s ideology and worldview, in contrast with the imaginary trump some people have built up in their heads as the memory of his administration has receded
26 replies 241 reposts 1150 likes
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Quinta Jurecic
@qjurecic.bsky.social
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it feels like the whiteness of big political media spaces right now is having a big effect on how people are thinking about the debate. eg I have seen relatively little discussion of trump's "black jobs" comment, which immediately exploded on black twitter
46 replies 485 reposts 1966 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Yes, though I think for casual consumers just "you literally can't believe anything he says" is better than trying to slice and dice.
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Jonathan Bernstein
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Reducing Trump's terrible debate performance to "he lied a lot" misses a bunch of important stuff. It was as much - or more - of an incompetent disqualifying performance than Biden's.
1 replies 9 reposts 30 likes
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Brendel
@brendelbored.bsky.social
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One of the funny things with pundits being alarmed about Biden being old and not making decisions is that it implicitly suggests that when Trump was president he was looking over dossiers and intelligence briefings and not just watching old episodes of Baywatch
16 replies 68 reposts 437 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Thank the Maker
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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This sucks man
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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My guess is he'd try to forge a center out rather than left in coalition if at all possible.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Every morsel I have picked up from anyone casually engaged with politics is either "duck Trump" or literally Grumpy Old Men memes. Carry on.
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Italy under Berlusconi is the closest to Trump's first term. Trump's hypothetical second term ... boy I dunno.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Isaac
@catsashimi.bsky.social
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The classic text on this by @chrislhayes.bsky.social is still jaw-dropping to read 20 years later archive.is/V3sbx
8 replies 53 reposts 201 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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While we're spitballing things shouldn't somebody figure out how to get him to drop out and endorse?
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I actually partially agree with Gorsuch's trolly take that if Congress doesn't like the interpretations they can rewrite the law, except it ignores practical realities about how hard it is to pass laws, shorter legislative tenure, longer waits for rulings, etc.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Not if it's at the expense of Biden! But it's a small move regardless.
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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post malone ergo propter malone
@proptermalone.bsky.social
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the extent to which the judiciary is powergrabbing for the judiciary is really something
5 replies 9 reposts 108 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I feel bad for my country but that would be tremendous content.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Isn't this an oddball coalition around defendant's rights? (Whether "defendants rights" are part of "liberalism" beyond racial justice is unclear to me)
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I think at this point huge chunks of regulation are effectively voluntary. The SEC case about penalties seems just as important.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Liberals really want a knockout blow against trump and there just isn't one.
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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post malone ergo propter malone
@proptermalone.bsky.social
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it's an extraordinary claim. Biden is solidly within MoE of a win *right now in the polls* and there are good reasons to think that the snapshot polls are structurally underestimating Biden relative to where he'd be if we were voting.
3 replies 5 reposts 92 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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I think just have faith they'll make some course corrections and Trust the Process.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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Among debate watchers (who are less partisan than the overall electorate)
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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People really want there to be a knockout blow on Trump and there just isn't.
0 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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The front-runners -- Mario Cuomo and Al Gore -- didn't run, assuming Bush was unbeatable after Desert Storm. Paul Tsongas was the national and NH poll leader. If you were an insider you knew Clinton had a good shot b/c of strategic moves by Southern govs, but no guarantee then even.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot.bsky.social
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projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-...
1 replies 0 reposts 10 likes