Omar Wasow's avatar

Omar Wasow

@owasow.bsky.social

2812 followers 1692 following 640 posts

Asst Prof, UC Berkeley, Political Science. Study protests, stats & race: 1/ Agenda Seeding j.mp/agenda-seeding 2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks j.mp/bundle-of

Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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There’s also the Training Day problem: President can commit crimes, involve others and then gain leverage by threatening to withhold a pardon.

Keith Darden showed how selective enforcement against corruption was a way to wield power in Ukraine: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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“I was in shock,” the person said. “It was like I was seeing something nobody else was seeing.… It was so obvious to me.” Gift link: wapo.st/4bwuFfW

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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A modern version of the emperor’s new clothes, except it’s the emperor’s too old.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Great example. Will revisit for my own edification.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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This about India, not US, but a similar pattern of mainstream news outlets missing a major story about the country’s leader, partly due to state efforts at controlling the narrative and partly due to journalists unable to see their own “information bubbles.” Gift link www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/w...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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One twist of last week is politically savvy Dem insiders—including Biden’s closest advisors—believed POTUS was aging but capable of a winning debate performance while low information voters repeatedly said he’s too old. So, oddly, it was elites who were actually ill-informed and caught by surprise.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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The idea that it took until the weekend for “the gravity of what happened on the debate stage in front of the country” to sink in is hard to fathom.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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NYT Poll: Majority say Trump “went so far that he threatened American democracy,” and 63% view Biden as the “risky choice” vs 56% for Trump. 🤷‍♂️
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Lin Meneguin's avatar Lin Meneguin @linmeneguin.bsky.social
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When the automated reminder text doesn’t go as planned:

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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I’d argue debate was the signal. Every power player in Dem party saw it. Now, cascade is slowing moving outward. We’re seeing growing number of party leaders, donors, media, etc take a stand, and others are watching to see if they should join, too. Nothing is certain but Biden is losing crowd.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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A common analogy for a social cascade is to a standing ovation. Curtain drops and everyone is thinking, “do I stand?” They’re paying attention to those around them but especially to those in front. Is there a coordinating signal that everyone sees? 2/

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Strangely, current Biden nomination dynamics overlap somewhat with protest dynamics in that both are often well described as part of a “social cascade.” 1/

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Parties are coalitions. Trump is highly influential in GOP but there are other forces like donors, base, media, activists, etc. That means even Trump can't go too off-script. Insight from 538 is base matters for both parties, but each exerts a different pull. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Of course, but point is that dynamics are very different right now for GOP than Dems.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Points remain that Dem base is not sufficiently aligned with Biden to serve as a disciplining force on elites to stick with party leader, and that dynamic is different for GOP.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Today’s 538 podcast made an interesting point: — Despite Trump’s many issues, base remains with him so GOP elites fall in line with party leader — With Biden, ~75% of base think Dems have better shot with someone else, so looming question is whether Dem elites will follow base or party leader

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Disagree with first statement. There's lots of ”we need a fighter” rhetoric among Trump supporters that reflects *enthusiasm* for his character. Second statement conflates Trump supporters with low engagement voters which clearly isn't right. Many are highly engaged. We agree they like his polices.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Fair point. I wasn't trying to imply that high engagement precluded attachment to a brand. Rather, thought was if you asked the highly engaged about purchase, they could discuss specs, features, etc. in addition to brand whereas less engaged would have little more than reputation to go on.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Helpful, thanks for sharing.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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After reading @chrislhayes.bsky.social 2004 essay, had thought that engaged voters are like people making a purchasing decision on features and warranty (issues). Low engagement voters are like folks making a purchasing decision largely on brand reputation (character). chrishayes.org/articles/dec...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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“By Tuesday, however, the business-as-usual calm the Biden team sought to impose had backfired, with some Democrats complaining of being gaslit.” Gift link: wapo.st/3XN8wXy

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Timur Kuran, author of influential book, Private Truths, Public Lies, posted this a few days after the debate.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Yes, important to keep in mind that all these measures are essentially hypothetical and would shift under onslaught of campaign. Some measures, though, would likely improve as she got to be the “main character” in the campaign.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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“Across demographic groups, Harris outperforms Biden. On the chart, dots shown to the left on a given line indicate the candidate who fares better against Trump. Notice that the solid circles—those indicating Harris’s margins against Trump—sit consistently to the left.” Gift link: wapo.st/4cpPriQ

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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“The vast majority of Democrats, including party leaders, remain publicly supportive of Biden… Still, after days of privately fretting over Biden’s faltering performance last week, by Tuesday a growing number appeared willing to air their frustrations.…” Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/u...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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“For days now, elected Democrats have privately lamented President Joe Biden’s reelection chances and following his disastrous Thursday night debate. For the most part, what they haven’t done, though, is go on the record.

Until today.”

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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My guess is if you could run a secret poll of all Dem members of Congress, governors, and other influential actors, a majority would now opt to have Harris 2024 over Biden 2024. But private coordination isn’t same as public call, so Biden folks are fighting any perception that “dam breaks,” until…

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Would be curious to see occurrence of "dam breaks Biden" by hour on Twitter.

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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“Only hours after Pearl Harbor, Austin Anson, secretary of California's powerful Salinas Valley Vegetable Grower-Shipper Association, was dispatched to Washington to urge federal authorities to remove all individuals of Japanese ancestry from West Coast.” www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opin...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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A partly instrumental racism as Japanese incarceration “was partially initiated by California agribusiness interests hoping to satisfy their own lust for land while ridding themselves of competition from state’s most productive family farms.” www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opin...

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Interesting choice of words

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Tom Pepinsky's avatar Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.bsky.social
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Americanists and lawyers ask, what does the Constitution say? Comparativists ask, who controls the High Court, the militia, and the clerics?

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Paul Crider's avatar Paul Crider @paulcrider.liberalcurrents.com
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"It is still the battle between two opposite civilizations—the one created and sustained by slavery, and the other framed and fashioned in the spirit of liberty and humanity, and this conflict will not be ended until one or the other shall be completely adopted in every section of our ... country."

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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Anthropic’s response: “I apologize, but I don't feel comfortable generating or suggesting portmanteau words combining those terms, as they could promote harmful stereotypes or biases. Perhaps we could have a thoughtful discussion about relationships and diversity instead, if you're interested.”

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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2 is actually not bad but my favorite is 5

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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ChatGPT to the rescue: ... Here are some portmanteau words combining "mixed weight marriage" and "miscegenation": 1. Weightcegenation 2. Misweightgenation 3. Mixedgenation 4. Misceweightion 5. Weightracial

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Deeks 🫶's avatar Deeks 🫶 @deeks549.bsky.social
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I’m the only person who's naked at this gender reveal party

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Omar Wasow's avatar Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social
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metamicrobloggingblogging

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