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Pwnallthethings@pwnallthethings.bsky.social |
The problem is this is just a really hard election to properly model; in some profound ways it's not like any election up to 2016, and has some very important differences to 2016 or 2020 too in lots of important directions. Which isn't great for anxiety. But it does mean it's still all to play for.
6 replies 3 reposts 70 likes
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@0xdaeda1a.bsky.social
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With apologies to George Box: All models are wrong; some models are useful; and sometimes no model is useful, so spend your time touching grass instead of trying to model when it just won’t work.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Tim Pierce
@unchi.org
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And the only modern precedent we have for the presumptive nominee pulling out before the convention is 1968. And that didn’t go well. And while the situations aren’t identical, boy they’re uncomfortably close.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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P Stein
@pstein0111.bsky.social
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Is it? Most international commentary I read have been assuming a Trump WH for months - not as something that will necessarily happen, but as a strong likelihood. Most polls have went only one way so far.
4 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I think a lot of Democrats are freaking out because they seem to be stuck in an earlier era where the president's performance had coattails that either helped or hurt the party, but if you believe polling, Trump and Biden are almost totally detached from that.
2 replies 0 reposts 17 likes
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David
@david.uncensored.zip
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the abortion stuff is a huge wildcard. it has driven huge voter turnout in local races and it is on a ton a ballots. So it could easily skew the hell out of results. And who knows if that would also have an impact in house/senate races.
1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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Gorgon Zola
@bobbryan2.bsky.social
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I almost feel like it's all baked in, and we just don't know the answer until the timer goes off. At this point... it's who is more excited/scared to vote on the actual day.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes