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Twlldun

@twlldun.bsky.social

2506 followers 288 following 1153 posts

You must gather your party before venturing forth.

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Stephen Bush's avatar Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social
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This thread is full of errors (a consequence of the fact that the Tory rulebook is not available online). No, the 100 is not fixed. No, no members of the 1922 “lost their seats” - there are no members of the 1922 when parliament is dissolved. There are fresh elections every term.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Nick Timothy run for Tory leader bitch

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Be honest mate: you may not be a dispassionate observer on Miss B and her future employment prospects

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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She’s the centre left candidate (within the Tory context, surprising I know) and to be clear, you’ll have her and Cleverly and maybe Tugendhat in some senses scrapping over that so I would be surprised. Dark horse is Hunt, after his near miss and his pretty gracious speech last night.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Solid media performer*, hasn’t made any internal enemies, ethnic minority, absolutely aware of his own limitations, generally praised by civil servants for his application, brash and reasonably likeable**, seems relatively human. Could do a lot worse *not my cup of tea, but **I don’t like him, but

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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I don’t think Braverman gets into the last two, if the Tories have any sense (a straight up fight between Badenoch and Cleverly seems likely in my eyes, with Badenoch taking it, which is interesting because I still don’t think she’s ready for Prime Time and he is)

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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think the Greens might be somewhere similar: they play well with left wing well off homeowners (Bristol, Brighton), and students (Bristol, Brighton) and rural areas chary of development and the like, there are a lot of people who won’t carry over their 21 year old support if they don’t back housing.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Yeah always difficult for these parties to progress once you hit a certain point because the demands of the voting coalition becomes unwieldy: a classic example would be Plaid Cymru, who - even though they have “independence” as glue - have never really been able to operate in north and south wales

1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Which way would you go after that? Your first assumption would be they coalesce and hoover up the semi disenfranchised left vote but honestly that’s a crowded field whereas the rural nimby one…less so. Especially if the Tories go for Moar Growth as their lodestar

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Certainly likely, which is where the solid Lib Dem presence could come in helpful (and that’s a *lot* of short money they’ve just helped themselves to, isn’t it?). Also gonna be interesting what happens to the Greens because their 4 seats are perfectly balanced between lefty townie and rural nimby

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Which means there may well be a nice potential coalition partner sitting right there even if you go backwards in seats. And the circumstances of the Gaza multiplier on the Muslim vote may very well have changed by 2029. So the next election is gonna be interesting as hell.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Yeah. And I am extremely cautious about any Rise Of Reform doomsaying here as well. This was absolutely the perfect storm for them: come 2029, neither the government nor the Tories will be in the shape they were. That matters. Also: the Lib Dems work hard and dig in like ticks.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Absolutely ruthless playing of the game in front of them, innit. Will be extremely interested on a campaigning level how that translates in 5 years time. Do they go more expansive, get out the vote, bump up turnout? More narrow?

1 replies 0 reposts 9 likes

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Ian Rennie 's avatar Ian Rennie @theangelremiel.bsky.social
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Jacob Rees Mogg is trying to get through the cordon with a fishing rod and a Fortnum & Mason's hamper.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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BREAKING: Allister Heath has locked himself into a corner window room at Telegraph Towers with a sniper rifle, and trained police negotiators are currently trying to talk him down.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Well looks like I could well be spectacularly wrong here

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Yeah, Feinstein’s pretty insane numbers also a tell

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Look, the reason we are watching these shows is the declarations. We can pretend it’s for high-minded data reasons, but it’s because we want to watch Tories having their dreams crushed in some run down sports centre at 2am. Show us more declarations! Show us more pathos!

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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My smaller platform prediction would be I suspect Reform will be closer to 3 than 13

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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How many do they need for serious money?

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Yep. If the US election had been reported all at once, then it would have been “solid democrat victory”. But because it was dripped out it was a bit more “can they squeak it?”

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Could well be. But worth noting - for instance - the numbers under the hood in Sunderland Central

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Clive Myrie (who is a solid presenter and I think I prefer him to Huw The Nonce) saying “the story is Reform”. And I’m a bit eh

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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One of the things that Sunderland declaring so quickly does is that a very leave heavy set of seats sets the narrative for the rest of the night. The rest of the night *may completely* mirror the narrative set by that. But even so, it is v interesting to observe.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Cackling at Leadsom going full We Were Not Tory Enough. YES YES YES YES.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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He LuOVE Garethh Southgate

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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I am a bit disappointed that - according to the exit poll - Labour will get a 1997 result 5 years after suffering a 1935 result, and the Tories will only get an 1832 result, which is far too good a performance from them imho. I am quite hard to please.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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He’s only launching them at Islington north

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Honestly, disappointed by those Tory seat numbers. KEIR STARMER MUST CONSIDER HIS POSITION.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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It’s fantastic isn’t it

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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An AI generated picture I made to troll a Scottish fan of my acquaintance, of him being chased through the streets of Glasgow by angry Celtic fans after he admits he’s supporting England because he loves Gareth Southgate

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Go into your photo roll or whatever and post the first image that makes you laugh literally out loud.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Tbh the children aren’t really a red line for me but Comrade Kim (PBUH) is

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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I’m sorry if that offends your reformist palate, but some of us aren’t prepared to leave Comrade Kim (or the little children) in the lurch.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Comrades, I have PROUDLY voted Worker’s Party of Great Britain, as they stand strong on the two most important issues to me: (1) support for PEOPLE’S KOREA, and in particular their quest for a worker’s bomb and (2) hang all the nonces.

2 replies 0 reposts 22 likes

Reposted by Twlldun

Stephen Bush's avatar Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social
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Today’s newsletter: some thoughts on Rishi Sunak’s election campaign, and the decisions, in the last six weeks, but also the last two years that made it so:

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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If the “some thoughts” don’t begin “what the fuck WAS that”, you are a more disciplined writer and thinker than most could ever dream of being

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Happy Polling Day everyone

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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I’ll tell you something: the Red Wall won’t stand for this.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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All these moments will be lost in time. Like tears in rain.

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Twlldun 's avatar Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social
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Yes, agree. It might need - at least - two kickings before it gets the message though.

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