Yair Wallach

Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 06:52 UTC

Some initial thoughts on the UK elections. 1. It confirms once again that when a center-right party veers to the hard right to weaken the far right, it ends up doing the opposite. After purging moderates and going full-on wingnuts and fever swamp, the Tories got decimated by Reform, not Labour. 🧵

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 12:12 UTC

Meantime, on X: Corbynistas: 34% vote share? In 2017 we had 40%!! (throw toys out of pram) Anti-Corbynistas: yeah but 2019! and we have 412 MPs!! (puts tongue out)

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:06 UTC

Yes I mean a Tory party with a fascist makeover. Which it kind of half-is already

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:58 UTC

I'll say more. Labour takes power in a terrible moment (poor growth, public services in terminal crisis, Brexit effects). Voters may get angry and frustrated soon as things deteriorate. Labour comes to power with only 35% of the vote. The risk of a fascist takeover in the next election seems high.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:37 UTC

As someone who grew up in a proportional representation system, the UK always seemed to me profoundly anti-democratic, in the way it prevents representation from large groups. However, it is what it is, there's not much sense faulting the winner for playing according to the rules.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:34 UTC

חברי פיט כינה את המעבורת הזו ״מקדונלדס מרחף מעל המיים״

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:31 UTC

Left wing challenge in inner cities probably won't win many more seats in 2024, but it could prevent Labour from winning them and open the way to Conservatives. We've seen examples of this now, and may well see more if Labour disappoint and don't offer a progressive horizon. 4/4

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:29 UTC

and while it worked well in 2024, it's very unlikely that it would work again in 4-5 years, when the memory of the Conservatives government will start to fade, and the right wing may well run on a joint hard-right ticket. 3/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:27 UTC

That's a very different game from the US - where the success of the Democrats depends on keeping a coalition of liberals and progressives; very different from France, where a hard and soft left coalition may block Le Pen from a parliamentary majority. 2/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:25 UTC

Labour won decisively by playing to 2024 conditions. It shifted to the right, took advantage of Conservative implosion and division. It told its left leaning urban constituency - young voters and ethnic minorities - to get lost, and gambled correctly that losses in urban areas won't matter. 1/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 06:55 UTC

Haaretz today

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 21:22 UTC

Shocking scenes as a major G7 country votes decisively for the not completely shitty option

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 12:40 UTC

Perhaps it's inevitable. But that framing comes with various underlying assumptions that I'm not sure people think through.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 11:11 UTC

Palestinians already couldn't build anything in area C, now they will find it much more difficult to build in area B. This decision leaves them with very small enclave in which Palestinians can build houses, schools or anything.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 11:09 UTC

Under the pretext of "protecting archaeological sites", and contrary to the Oslo accords, the Israeli govt effectively revoked Palestinian planning in Area B (22% of the West Bank). Israel already has full planning control over Area C (60%), leaving Palestinians with only 18% of West Bank (Area A).

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 10:50 UTC

Jews who are embracing the Diasporist identity are unwittingly accepting the Zionist framing of Israel vs Diaspora. That framing and dichotomy didn't exist, and didn't make sense, before modern Zionism. "Israel", in 19th century Hebrew press, is the people of Israel, where they are.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 08:30 UTC

Happy Tories Out day. Untold damage. 14 years.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 08:29 UTC

If a ceasefire agreement is not reached and the current situation persists, there is a very high likelihood that this military-religious presence would be expanded towards permanent Israeli rule, and permanent Palestinian displacement from much of the strip. 3/3

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 08:27 UTC

The synagogue is in the Turkish Hospital - built on the site of the Netzarim Settlement (evacuated in 2006). The Menorah and Torah scroll from Netzarim were brought to the new synagogue in the hospital. 2/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 08:24 UTC

Haaretz publishes today that the IDF established permanent control over 26% of the Gaza Strip, including a large "corridor" cutting the strip to two. In that corridor, Jewish fundamentalists established a synagogue with view of permanent "return". 1/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 16:11 UTC

The Supreme Court declared a new civil war, which is not going away even if Trump loses.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 16:09 UTC

Striking that the NYT appears totally obsessed with Biden's withdrawing from the race (which I have no doubt will happen) while not talking much about the Supreme Court's paving the way to fascism. Seems to me primarily a coping mechanism: you fret about the things you know/may have control over

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:44 UTC

I often return to the words of my professor (Edward Acton, historian of the Russian Revolution): have you ever seen a ruling elite give up its entrenched power and privileges without violence or a credible threat of violence?

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:41 UTC

Hamas agrees to a permanent ceasefire. Israel rejects the premise of "permanent". And yes for sure they'll be political damage. But a full scale war in Lebanon (again, 50% likelihood now) can be much more damaging.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:39 UTC

Between 1998 and 2023, Israel declared 28k dunams as "state land" (=land for settlers). In 2024 alone, Israel declared 24k dunams as state land. (1 dunam = 0.25 Acre)

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 13:44 UTC

This is a reminder that anyone who has ever defended Roger Waters is not worth your time.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 12:09 UTC

Rabbi Yitzhak Sarfati, calling on Jews to leave the "accursed land" of Christian Europe and come to the Ottoman Empire. 1454

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 12:08 UTC

"I have heard of the afflictions ... that have befallen our brethren in Germany -- of the tyrannical laws, the compulsory baptisms and the banishments ... Is it not better for you to live under Moslems than under Christians? Here every man may dwell at peace under his own vine and fig-tree." 1/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 11:29 UTC

We can only speculate. I know that no other administration allowed Israel to have an un-ending war. They know an escalation could harm them. I think if Trump would be in a position that he thought war in the ME could harm him, he would not hesitate for second to bring it to an end.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 10:06 UTC

There's evidence Qatari funds were allocated to Netanyahu.
No evidence he received them.
But the story stinks.

www.jpost.com/israel-news/...

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 08:32 UTC

A UN Security Council resolutions calling for an immediate and permanent ceasefire (with US abstaining) was a credible enough threat. That threat should have been used. NO ONE serious in Israel thought the US would let this go on for 9 months.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 08:27 UTC

The Democrats have enough things to sink them in the November elections, with Biden running or without him. They should have eliminated the risks for an all-out Middle East war this summer. It was - and is - perfectly possible. They didn't, and instead invited Netanyahu to Washington.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 08:25 UTC

No other US President allowed Israel a carte blanche for a never-ending war - now almost 9 months in the making. Perhaps Reagan in 1982. In 2002, operation "defensive shield" in the West Bank ended after a month. The Lebanon 2006 war, the Gaza wars of 2009, 2014, lasted no more than six weeks.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 08:20 UTC

Sure - they gave indication that this would be their preference. And usually that indication would be enough: Israeli PMs usually don't like to tell the US President to get lost. But not with Netanyahu in 2024. It would have taken the US using its leverage to stop this pointless carnage.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 08:17 UTC

While it could be easily prevented by reaching a ceasefire in Gaza. That's, in fact, the position of the IDF high command. For pure pragmatic reasons, the US should have forced a ceasefire in December. In March. In June. Any other US administration would have done this. Except Biden's. 3/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 08:15 UTC

Such an escalation would be catastrophic to Lebanese and Israelis. It could also destabilise the region, cause further disruption in other flashpoints, and drive oil price up. The escalation would serve no strategic purpose - Israel cannot "defeat" Hizballah". 2/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 08:14 UTC

On the recklessness of US policy: The risk of dramatic escalation between Israel and Hizballa will remain elevated throughout the summer. In fact, if there's no cease-fire in Gaza, it's more likely than not that the Lebanese front would also escalate. 1/

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 20:07 UTC

It's a really good question. So Far I haven't found any first person accounts of people who studied there. There are quite a few for the AUB which it seems was welcoming. Indeed, some American Jews who didn't get a place in US universities due to discrimination came to study medicine in the AUB.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 11:59 UTC

With the inevitable "see it's not so bad" takes along the way

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 10:43 UTC

And yes, please ignore the caveats - it was a residential building with 300 residents, targeted directly with 20 bombs. No "miscalculation" can explain this; no military target can justify this.

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 09:42 UTC

highlight of the last 9 months: ignoring Nigel Farrage's request for an interview

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Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 09:32 UTC

I'm an academic with 30k followers and anyway not tweeting. They have 150k followers and an international platform. But I guess they need effigies to burn

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