Reposted by Chris Parker
Explosive reporting in Le Monde confirms what was apparent all week: Macron resisted the emergence of anti-far-right front after round 1.
His PM, Attal, forced it as a fait accompli, & pressured for drop outs to block RN. Even then, Macron made some phone calls to undercut it.
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For me this is about crate digging, in the day, when you could find odd to great $1-$3 records
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The campaign to replace Biden is being underwritten by the Underpants Gnomes
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Well put
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Lately i have noticed an increase in garbage rhetoric from centrists
Faux grade logic here pitched to people with significantly more sense
Know your audience and keep throwing tomatoes on hand
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Thought about it, tried it briefly but young Chris did not have the patience for this and was too easily distracted
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Easily my favorite writer at the Prospect. Very disappointed to see Kuttner & Meyerson on the #SomeoneElse train because i used to have respect for them. But useful to see who the weak knees are so I can avoid their voices going forward.
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At yet they (literally) ignored my editorial about changing the patent system so govt pays Drug Co. for testing and keeps the patents
Why this voice and not mine, eh?
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The @nytimes.com is trying to play you and it’s as subtle as a cat killing
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The goal is the better candidate and also trying to play political consultant like well paid pundits with writers block and too much time in their hands accomplishes less than nothing
Stop bidding against yourself Dems guessing what your neighbor thinks like has been happening with economic polls
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I really can’t tell if Israel stopped being egregious in Gaza or the media got bored with it and moved on to filling the news hole with AARP content
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One of the first times i said, “the complainants are way too online pundit sorts who by nature have bladder control issues that give them something to talk about constantly”
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Yeah you’re much better off with liberals and Nate Cohn centrists
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Well also his handlers have intentionally kept him under glass which only amplifies it
But at same time it is unclear at least to me how much is truly dysfunction and how much is he has never been much of an extemporaneous speaker unlike TFG
Certainly hasnt shown in running the country, so…
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it's disengenuous to suggest a bad debate is probative of anything
it hasn't been in the past and it won't be worse for Joe than Afghanistan. I mean it will probably cost him some votes
but history indicates losing a news cycle is just that
losing your bladder control is something entirely diff
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yeah & you never see them repeated; one poll he's cut the lead on under 35 another poll he's winning indies big, the next he's even on women
there is no consistent group he's winning other than a few points off latinos maybe (pretty consistent) so hard to believe TFG is making inroads
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I'll be honest, I'm not sure who Trump has really won over. He lost pretty badly to Biden. I get saying polls are wrong, but they've been wrong an awful lot esp. early, and when difference is within 6% that's way within the error range
so what groups has he won? cross-tabs haven't been consistent
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yeah, the work of his campaign staff makes Keystone Kops look like Seal Team 6
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I think on the whole Warren native american thing
she was never going to outrun that; that's the smear you get
but as smears go, really, I think it's pretty weak
I'd be a lot more worried about what indies think about a felon
But admittedly, Dem messaging is pretty shit & media big part of that
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oh yeah, he needs to do something about his team who by all appearances are Stephen Miller quality
no argument here; and yeah they stupidly invested capital in this
but if you think it's easier to choose a new candidate than recover from one bad debate, I got news for you....
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it was powerfully stupid to have the debate way way earlier than they ever were
for that alone Anita Dunn should be looking for work
my hope is that is the ultimate playout of this; he dumps that shite advisors he's been carting all campaign
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if you believe any GOP narrative will be put to rest you haven't been watching long enough
how many stories were there on immigrant caravan
how long did that go on?
how probative was it in the end?
I mean I get feeling bad, but over-reaction is best thing Dems could do for Trump; same smear DD
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how much slippage would you imagine there is week to week in avg bad news cycle?
he lost 3 pts & ppl want to give up? How much did Trump lose after grab them by the pussy? Totally sunk him lol
there WILL be bad news cycles. If tDems can't do them without soiling self, maybe democracy not for us
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thank you, earned a follow
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Reposted by Chris Parker
Reagan won a second term with alzheimers because Republicans knew that it didn't actually matter, control of the office does. There's zero polls that show a statistically significant slippage. Don't throw out the old ass baby with the bathwater
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he lost this news cycle, but if you dump the guy Dems will lose a lot more news cycles and if they can't see that, then I understand how we wind up here
we can't run around scared what people will say
projecting confidence works for GOP & their candidates sux eggs
word to the wise
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based on what? pundit vibes? lot of people were not going to vote for Joe after afghanistan lol
people need to go thru life w/o relying on the crutch of polling whose error bars haven't changed as they went from >50% response rates to <1%
it's scary but I get no sense Ross Douhat/Ezra knows shit
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well if Trump is incompetent and made it thru 4 yrs and only killed an extra million or two Americans and the US is still cool with him, I guess I don't know what the scary thing about Biden is. They have to get Trump up at 3am too & he flung plates of ketchup!
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I mean the press has panics over anything Fox tells them true or not, so I just don't take press freakouts very seriously; I'm old enough to not only remember the evil caravan for the killer bees
if there were something that happened in his OFFICIAL DUTIES I would be more attentive
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or raises a question on how good the Dunn's advice is
he got better as the debate went on
idk what to tell you; the other guy got thru and he's a fucking basket case, so I guess nobody had given any practical reasons to be upset
did he suggest injecting bleach?
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realer based on what exactly? one TV appearance and a lot of pundit griping?
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whole debate thing recalls economy issue
issue is more @ people freaking out than it is about the actual thing they say it is
like ppl saying the economy is bad even if it isn't for them
it's bad faith, pundits and weak bladders & I'm not afraid, he's actually best prez we've had in long time
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I am not convinced he's mentally unfit
I think a lot of Democrats have weak bladders which is a bad thing in a fight for democracy; we have to fight for this thru thick and thin, not complain and jump shit at the slightest provocation
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Reposted by Chris Parker
I strongly support Israel, but this angers me, it’s not helping the perception fight. Stop it! Wise up!
apple.news/AlMIveD5aTba...
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Reposted by Chris Parker
this. that’s why they rig elections, that’s why they stockpile guns, that’s why they puff their chests out and act tough. they’re in the minority. and at their core, they’re weak.
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Reposted by Chris Parker
Every day proves Thaddeus Stevens right: there should've been big Nuremberg-style public trials of leading Confederates, accompanied by seizures of the assets of all pro-Confederate large landowners and businessmen, which should then have been distributed to freed slaves as compensation.
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Understand this very deeply
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It clearly is imo
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And it never has been outside magical thinking
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Me as well but it has shown me who the weak links are and i can move away
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Reposted by Chris Parker
Giving up the incumbent advantage because a bunch of disingenuous and/or nihilistic journos have condemned Biden like he's an old building seems the dumbest thing imaginable. Biden wasn't my choice in the 2020 primaries, but he's the president now, and just being the president is a big advantage.
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so Iron Man doesn't count?
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if I waited until I saw cross-tabs that made sense I'd never listen to polling
this is why I don't trust <1% response rate polling any farther than I can kick it
error bar may be +/- 10pts which isn't very informative
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If you read Trump, you know this means they're much more frightened of the guy that beat them last time than whatever the Democrats can pull out of their hat
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so talking exclusively about the economy didn't address that?
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I feel like we would need a contrary example
if Judy Miller wasn't a deterence what would be?
the moral hazard is operating and there seems little that will stop it short of a Clear Channel-like impolosion
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