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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Oh, I'd seen that, but I was thinking more about file Covid_data.xlsx
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Chris Hanretty@chanret.bsky.social |
1038 followers 584 following 772 posts
I teach politics at a university in the UK. I'm interested in electoral systems, public opinion, and the politics of non-majoritarian institutions like courts and regulators.
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Oh, I'd seen that, but I was thinking more about file Covid_data.xlsx
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Do you have the replication data for that article? It would be good to use as a teaching example given that you've got all the code for the various models in the appendix
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Rahel Freiburghaus
@rfrbrghs.bsky.social
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#ENGSUI isn’t just a clash of two different football philosophies. It’s also a battle between two fundamnetally different political systems. When it comes to off-pitch performance,it’s already clear who the winner is: Consensus democracies like Switzerland www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... polisky
1 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Would love to see also some analysis of turnout...
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Yes, it is. If you rebase to GB only one or two companies had it with in nominal margin of error
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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It was very interesting watching Ann Widdecombe defending PR on Channel 4 last night; "where you stand" depends on where you sit
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Pete Birkinshaw
@binaryape.bsky.social
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Unfortunately FPTP is like The One Ring of UK politics: whoever wins does a Boromir/Isildur and thinks "Maybe we shouldn't destroy it, maybe we should use its terrible power for good?"
3 replies 44 reposts 151 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Significant overestimation of the Labour vote, some underestimation of the Conservative vote. Errors on other parties vary.
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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This means more three cornered contests, and low winning shares like that of the Labour candidate in Liz Truss' seat of SW Norfolk (26.7%, into third place on the all time list)
0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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The effective number of vote-winning parties at constituency level (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effecti...) has increased a lot
2 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Apologies, thought Poole was the outstanding one
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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This doesn't make any sense from Farage. Poole is Con/Lab; Inverness is SNP/LDem.
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Edward
@fornbirkibeinn.bsky.social
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Not the biggest element of FPTP disproportion, but it appears that Labour has won 84% of Welsh seats on 37% of the vote, the second and third placed parties in terms of votes won no seats, with 4 seats for the fourth party and one for the fifth.
1 replies 6 reposts 13 likes
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Carl Baker
@carlbaker.bsky.social
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An interim page showing results (644/650), plus spreadsheets of winning Members and defeated MPs, is available here. It'll be updated later today.
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...
0 replies 3 reposts 10 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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We are still waiting on some seats, so although it won't affect the conclusions (not good) it might be a bit bad mannered not to wait
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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I would love to know what David Pinto-Duschinsky's view on electoral reform is, given that his dad is one of the few academic defenders of FPTP
1 replies 3 reposts 11 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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For the UK, it's at the bottom part of the writeup of www.survation.com/survation-mr...
For international comparisons, you can try christophergandrud.github.io/Disproportio... but that only runs until 2015, and most people roll their own
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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(I haven't discussed Sainte-Laguë, but it is *off the hook*)
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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In other words, this looks like a hugely out-of-equilibrium result, and Labour is very fortunate to be benefitting to this extent
4 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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The combination of "high effective number of vote-winning parties" and "high disproportionality" is really rare. You're mostly looking at cases like Poland 1993 (25.6), where, in a new political environment, there was a huge tail of small parties which didn't win seats
1 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Other elections with similar values tend to be small island nations with FPTP: Jamaica (1997): 25 Antigua and Barbuda (2014): 24.9 Bahamas (2012): 24.3
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Gallagher index for this election is 24.9, beating the figure for 1983 gist.github.com/chrishanrett...
1 replies 2 reposts 4 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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I was wondering about that. Polling generally was showing movement away from Labour, but generally not increasing conservative vote share, which was widely underestimated
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Yeah, I would describe this as a polling failure except for one company, maybe two
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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About 14
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Yeah, I think we've done well on the Lab/reform margin but we've not got the Lab/Con margin at all right
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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On 14 per the last projection
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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h/t to Verian, who are going to be very, very close
2 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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I think this is going to be a moderately bad election for the polling industry which will be forgotten because it's essentially a blowout
1 replies 2 reposts 9 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Trying to back out vote shares from the exit poll, starting from Survation seat estimates, and I think it's something like Lab 37.5, Con 25.8
1 replies 3 reposts 9 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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It's possible, and exit polling is harder this year, but given the historical record of the exit poll team it's very unlikely
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Forecast was poor on Labour but captured Reform well. I said I was certain they'd better 1997 and it looks like they haven't
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Paul Brand's suit is a bit tight... I have no other insight yet
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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It was very much at the instigation of my partner...
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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I went to play tennis 7-9. I played poorly, but it was better than being eaten up by anxiety
2 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Not proprietary, but "not frequently asked". Full model runs can take up 4-8 hours depending on desired accuracy; Stan programming language run through cmdstanr; 96-core cloud machine courtesy AWS
2 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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No, not at all! It's a testament to how I've brought a more academic approach to Survation's work that final_preds.xlsx now becomes final_final_final_preds.xlsx!
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Apologies if you're following along, but model runs take a long time and model runs don't always sync up with some of the very last data drops
3 replies 5 reposts 19 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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It's generally hard to infer levels of turnout from queues; this year it may also reflect a longer time per voter processing photographic ID.
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Julia M. Rohrer
@dingdingpeng.the100.ci
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An example in which substantive knowledge tells us all 3 types of effects exist: legwear. Clear age effects (rompers go down); clear period effect (barely any 70s jeans anymore); clear cohort effects (I like my jeans longer than my students bc that's how we wore them back when I was that age).>
2 replies 2 reposts 12 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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In non-election news, this is a fascinating piece on amateur mathematics, featuring an underemployed Bulgarian telecoms administrator, a mononymous Polish university dropout, and an anonymous hero (who presumably works for some three letter agency) www.quantamagazine.org/amateur-math...
0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Vote! Vote to choose who will represent you! Vote for all those - at home or abroad - denied that right!
0 replies 8 reposts 11 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Yes, the 99% figure is from "inside" the model. If you believe the model is correct, your probability should be 99%. If you believe the model is incorrect for (reasons), then it's not 99%. The value of providing comparisons with, e.g., other elections is that it's not model dependent in the same way
2 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Thanks!
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Yeah, the number of Lab/Con/Reform three-ways is crazy
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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Well, that's very kind, but there are lots of excellent people out there (including people I've trained) producing very different estimates!
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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I wrote a blog post about why I felt confident saying that Labour will win more seats than they did in 1997 www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/why_wa...
6 replies 15 reposts 41 likes
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Chris Hanretty
@chanret.bsky.social
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It's the seat forecast they're all describing as "punchy"
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Toby S. James
@tobysjames.bsky.social
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The next UK general election could be quite different, depending on who is elected at this one.
Here's the parties' proposals for electoral reform....
tobysjames.com/2024/06/22/e...
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Eric Rauchway
@rauchway.bsky.social
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RICHARD NIXON: Listen, you all laughed when I said that if the president does it, that means that it is not illegal, BUT WHO’S LAUGHING NOW
8 replies 105 reposts 392 likes