What explains that some countries see a lot of heat pumps being installed whereas others lag behind?
Key factor is the 'spark gap' - the ration of electricity to gas prices.
I plotted heat pump sales per 1,000 households in 2023 against the spark gap.
See the correlation?
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China added 19 GW of solar, 3 GW of wind and 1.2 GW of nuclear capacity in May. 79 GW of solar and 20 GW of wind were added in Jan-May, increasing 29% and 21% from last year's record numbers. Solar additions sped up in May from last month and May last year.
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In the long run IMO I think we’ll see refineries morphing into “carbon manipulation” complexes, that will buy their carbon, hydrogen and oxygen tagged with GHG intensity (recycled, CCS, bio, DAC, etc), and sell the product (eg jet fuel, chem products) with a carbon charge attached. But we’ll see.
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That would be a beautiful sight to see 😁
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👍 Refineries have two values: where they are (at the nexus of supply and demand), and what crudes they can handle. While chemical demand demand is growing fast, as you say it cannot make up for likely falling transport fuel demand, and there will be a competitive culling of refineries.
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I’ve heard the interesting argument made that Alberta’s bitumen may be most valuable for its high asphalt content, in a world where less conventional crude is being processed and less byproduct asphalt is produced as refinery bottoms. The more exotic and interesting product would be graphite.
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😉
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To the degree they are able, refiners will likely shift to lighter crudes easier to turn into petrochemical feedstocks, but this flexibility is limited with a given plant design. Adaptive refinery designs are becoming more common, however, was locked to local crudes.
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Petrochemicals are most easily made directly with C2-C6 ish chemicals, or cracked from naptha. In a world with less gasoline & diesel use, high middle distillates like them can be used, but more energy, cracking transformations and physical waste are needed, reducing returns on a barrel.
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Refineries are designed to take in a given set of lighter to heavier & sweeter to more sour (sulfur) crudes and output a set of products. The first couple of steps separate the lightest (butane, propane, naptha), medium (gasoline, diesel) and heavy (fuel oil, parrafins & asphalt) products. 1/n
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PhDs are about finding the frontier and pushing it out, which so far doesn’t seem to be a ChatGPT strong suit. But I’m a novice using it and it may have gotten much better.
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One thing I’ve noticed about ChatGPT, because it’s trained on a bulk of knowledge, is that it has a bias towards what has been said the most times. I’ve given up using it for industrial decarb because it says CCS & now hydrogen a lot, with zero ability to sort new electrification wheat from chaff.
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And .. it’s mainstream 😁☀️”Solar power is going to be huge”
www.economist.com/interactive/...
from The Economist
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Lately, journalists have asked if scientists didn't warn us enough, or didn't know how bad climate change would be.
Scientists did their jobs. It's fossil fuel companies who lied about climate impacts FOR DECADES. They're to blame for these heat waves.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...
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It doesn’t specify the source, but for it ton be that widespread, you need a widespread vector
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If you're growing stuff to eat in your garden, get your soil tested rn
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How anyone though adding lead to gasoline was a good idea, I’ll never know. “New study finds at least 1 in 4 US residential yards exceeds new EPA lead soil level guideline” phys.org/news/2024-06...
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taxes
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So, if you want to stop worrying about car and catalytic converter theft, apparently Teslas are the least stolen vehicle in the US by a wide margin, and EVs in general in Canada 🤣🤣🤣 www.kron4.com/news/these-a... & economical.com/en/blog/econom…
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So, if you want to stop worrying about car and catalytic converter theft, apparently Teslas are the least stolen vehicle in the US by a wide margin, and EVs in general in Canada 🤣🤣🤣 www.kron4.com/news/these-a... & economical.com/en/blog/econom…
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I like the ‘70s cars (motorcycles were more my thing), but imagine taking the advantages of EVs (e.g., linear torque, raw power) & weaving them together with the muscle car ethos to make the best ever? It might change people’s minds about EVs on the subconscious level , like the Roadster & Model S.
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Range is not as important as maybe a 100-150 kWh battery, 200hp on each wheel, phat tires, 70s styling, and low wide base. That would do it
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We’re still waiting for the “rip the doors off” all American EV muscle car, properly styled. A glaring omission.
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And for your final “weird but cool” Friday concept, a technology that uses carbon fibre to store electricity, e.g., in wind turbine blades. www.rechargenews.com/energy-trans...
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And for your final “weird but cool” Friday concept, a technology that uses carbon fibre to store electricity, e.g., in wind turbine blades. www.rechargenews.com/energy-trans...
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📣 NEW REPORT 📣
To meet Canada’s climate goals, the way we heat buildings needs to change.
Our new report Heat Exchange analyzes how to keep building heat reliable and affordable, with a planned switch from gas to electric heat. #CleanEnergy
climateinstitute.ca/reports/buil...
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Another entry for unanticipated damages at +1.2°C (+1.3°C?) “Alaska's melting permafrost is dumping toxic metals into the state's rivers, turning them bright orange and making the water highly acidic (& toxic to aquatic life).” www.space.com/alaska-river...
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I’m here for primacy of the periodic table posts.
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That_is_brilliant 🤣
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Is that what it looks like, a heat electrification rule actualized as a NOx elimination rule? 😉
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Anybody who has studied the interwar period and specifically the 1930s can find parallels in the current polycrisis period. WWI may not have been preventable, but the scale and horror of WWII certainly was. www.theguardian.com/world/articl...
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The externalities (damages we endure but are not reflected in the cost of gasoline) of congestion, crashes, air pollution, climate change, and noise easily add up to another $3/gallon. Congestion is one of the biggest costs.
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Tesla makes great cars with an excellent charging network. The Y was the best selling car in the world of all types last year. Elon is the only liability.
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Anyone want to see how much of the "demand for EVs is falling" pearl clutching is really just people not wanting to give money to Elon Musk?
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Good article on “vasectomy zoning”, where cities block the size the housing young families need, and the amenities for them. Vancouver suffers from this - chronically full elementary schools, a shortage of 3-4 bedroom apartments, etc h/t Russil Wvong www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Because it’s Friday, I have a public service message for cat lovers. My wife & I have a collective ~80 years of cat care, & we learned only last weekend you should separate their food & water, something instinctual about their prey maybe contaminating the water. Might explain all the kidney disease.
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🤣 Sort of like people eventually arrive at democracy because everything else is more hazardous to your health if you’re in politics?
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This showed up in some global climate and then IAM model literature about a decade ago, and now here we are. “When hydropower runs dry” via @nytimes www.nytimes.com/2024/06/04/c...
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www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
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Have you had full SSD over the same period?
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👍 It would be lovely to not wear a backpack on the bike all the time ...
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Do you ever have issues with vibration? I’ve always stuck my laptop on my back, because I’ve been scared of rattling components inside.
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The sad thing, given its political troubles, is a carbon tax is likely the closest thing to a perfect consumption tax, while only part of a complete climate policy package. “Laurence Tubiana, one of experts behind 2015 agreement, calls for taxes on consumption”
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
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A star so old it may be a member of only the *second* generation of stars born ever. Like EVER ever, just a few hundred million years after the Big Bang, and it's right in our galactic back yard!
badastronomy.beehiiv.com/p/one-oldest...
🔭 🧪
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