here’s a fucking marker: biden does not step down, trump loses. make your arguments against it, but that’s the baseline you would expect if you don’t read the times and the atlantic writers shitting their pants in public. show your work, and i will show mine.
Abortion rights is still an issue. That obviously has yet to be resolved by pro-choice voters
2022 was the warm up. 2024 is when more vote for Abortion Rights
And there are other policies people want Democrats to pass and want to prevent judges from taking away.
Biden has had judges block a lot 1/
In 2022 GenZ and women almost tanked the "red wave" primarily because of abortion. Exit polling showed GenZ voting 2:1 in favor of Dems.
This November there will be about 3 million fewer Boomers and 12 million more GenZ'ers eligible to vote.
Elections with abortion on the ballot are going Blue.
Since Star Wars metaphors are suddenly the rage for this campaign all of a sudden, Dems should be like Luke and turn off their targeting computer. Tune out the broken polls and broken press and focus on running a campaign that's already proven it can win.
when you start asking questions about the fucking boogeyman the fucking boogeyman loses his power. candyman isn’t real. NYT columnists absolutely do not predict the future of elections, and they are legitimately very bad at it.
how does the RNC mobilize? what votes does trump get this year that he didn’t get in 2020? where does trump get *new* votes, and does he take them from biden, and how?
i can’t get past them taking a group of people who have never voted (20%) and putting them in the likely voter category. tell me i’m a denier or whatever but you’re going to have to prove that is valid.
My thought is that they used ‘but her emails’ to break Hillary, choosing an absurd minor story to fixate on obsessively instead of paying attention to Trump’s many, many flaws. The NYT has found its equivalent for this cycle and will not stop between now and November no matter what.
Quick in the weeds question: how many states have abortion referenda on ballot in November? I know that Nevada and Arizona do (two swing states). What others?
That’s relevant to Biden’s chances in ways the NYT rarely if ever engages.
I'm pretty sure Biden wins in any state Abortion is on the ballot. I'm pretty sure Biden wins regardless of what polls are showing, because who responds to polls? People who have landlines/answer unknown numbers (read: Boomers). Who doesn't? Gen Z. There's what? 11mil more Gen Z voters this year?
I'm less confident than I was about the latter - "don't you think he looks tired" keeps going around, I've seen left-wing and liberal Americans panicked (or thinking they were lied to about his health) - but the former, well, a lot of the people saying he should step down don't know who FOR.