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Kevin Morris

@kevintmorris.bsky.social

887 followers 390 following 655 posts

Senior Research Fellow and Voting Policy Scholar at the Brennan Center. Voting is good, prisons are bad. Probably on a bike or a beach.
kevintmorris.com

Reposted by Kevin Morris

Kevin Elliott's avatar Kevin Elliott @kjephd.bsky.social
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When future historians periodize US history, 2013 will mark the end of the US's first era of officially consensual multiracial democracy. After Shelby County v Holder began a period of acute struggle over democracy in the states and eventually at the federal level. The denouement remains to be seen

3 replies 57 reposts 188 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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CALL FOR PROPOSALS:
Stephanie Puello and I are organizing the election science CWC at #SPSA2025 in Puerto Rico--and the call for proposals just went live! Please submit them here (not through AllAcademic), and share widely!
polisky
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

0 replies 2 reposts 4 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Absolutely. And while preclearance itself wasn't directly struck down, I do have concerns about what Alexander would mean for a preclearance condition if we got a new coverage formula

1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Reposted by Kevin Morris

Marty Beach's avatar Marty Beach @chefmarty426.bsky.social
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Excellent thread on the ongoing threat to democracy in the US, courtesy of SCOTUS

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Woot woot! I'm looking forward to seeing this!

0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Reposted by Kevin Morris

Neil Lewis, Jr.'s avatar Neil Lewis, Jr. @neillewisjr.bsky.social
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As RBG wrote at the time: “Throwing out preclearance when it has worked and is continuing to work to stop discriminatory changes is like throwing away your umbrella in a rainstorm because you are not getting wet”

1 replies 73 reposts 227 likes

Reposted by Kevin Morris

Michael Tae Sweeney's avatar Michael Tae Sweeney @mtsw.bsky.social
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The way the one-way ratchet of reactionary power works: They steal the Presidency in 2000, which lets them steal the Supreme Court and federal courts, which lets them rig elections, which lets them steal the legislatures, and on and on it goes until we're in one-party GOP rule in many states now.

2 replies 42 reposts 144 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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The legacy of the VRA is powerful--and so too is the evidence from the past decade that preclearance is still needed in the 21st century. That's why we need to pass the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, and bring it back!!

0 replies 10 reposts 58 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act "flipped the script." Now, states and localities would have to prove that they wouldn't violate the 15th Amendment _before_ a policy could go into effect. Wohoo!

2 replies 5 reposts 37 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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In the years leading up to the 1965 Act, Congress had expanded the powers of the government to sue over voting rights violations. But it wasn't enough--litigation is time consuming, and localities would often just switch to a new way of discriminating when the old way was blocked

1 replies 4 reposts 34 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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In SC v Katzenbach in 1966--the SCOTUS opinion affirming the constitutionality of the VRA--the court wrote, "Congress might well decide to shift the advantage of time and inertia from the perpetrators of evil to its victims." That was the power of the VRA

1 replies 4 reposts 34 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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#ShelbyCounty also allowed states like TX to implement discriminatory policies. And, while we litigate, these laws are on the books and disenfranchising people---laws that almost surely would have been blocked *before* going into effect under preclearance
bsky.app/profile/kevi...

1 replies 9 reposts 50 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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And the effects of #ShelbyCounty on the turnout gap were largest exactly where we'd expect: in counties that tried to implement racially discriminatory policies and practices in the twilight years of preclearance:

1 replies 15 reposts 68 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Eleven years ago, SCOTUS gutted the Voting Rights Act in #ShelbyCounty, arguing that "things have changed" since the 1960s. Today, we know that things have changed since this ruling: namely, that the turnout gap exploded in formerly-covered places 1/n
www.brennancenter.org/our-work/res...

4 replies 191 reposts 417 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Today's newsletter from @jbouie.bsky.social has me thinking about our working paper again. JD Vance argues that concerns about fraud should be taken seriously. But that's not true when they're just a means to launder racial anxieties, whether today or in 1876
www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/o...

1 replies 2 reposts 7 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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This is one of those figures that will get stuck in my head for months. _Registration_ gaps are dropping for most groups, even as _turnout_ gaps are not

0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Preliminary results, but weak Dems and weak Reps were more likely to support Dem congressional candidates in CO in 2022 when the Rep candidate was an election denier (using cast vote records)

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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We asked whether they could access it easily, in order to register. A lot of folks are like me -- I'm _pretty sure_ my birth certificate is in my parent's safety deposit box, 3,000 miles away from me!

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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This morning we published some research showing that millions of Americans couldn't prove their citizenship to register to vote, as some Republicans are demanding. Check out the NPR writeup here:
www.npr.org/2024/06/11/n...

7 replies 57 reposts 84 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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This ups the ante on a new preclearance formula: it needs to be perfect, knowing this challenge is waiting in the wings

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Chilling story here from Judge Tatel. While Shelby overturned the formula determining which places were covered under the VRA's preclearance condition, preclearance as a remedy still remains (awaiting a new formula). But in NAMUNDO, SCOTUS nearly killed Sec 5 altogether
www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/p...

1 replies 10 reposts 25 likes

Reposted by Kevin Morris

Zahava Stadler's avatar Zahava Stadler @zahavastadler.bsky.social
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"Sub-county jurisdictions" might not even be the towns and city council districts you're thinking of. The VRA's preclearance provision was a really important federal defense against racially motivated school district gerrymandering by bad actors.

www.newamerica.org/education-po...

0 replies 17 reposts 54 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Here's a great illustration of why the VRA's preclearance condition was so vital: More than 50% of objections (1965--2013) were for sub-county practices. A system protecting a fundamental right _can't_ rely on activists monitoring and potentially litigating this many changes!

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Just a reminder that, uh, "presumptive good faith on the part of the state" isn't exactly little-c conservative

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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This morning saw an awful opinion that will undermine Black political rights in the USA. And yet, Alito recognizes that racial inequalities in participation are endemic in the US. What he left out was that the Court was a major driver of this in Shelby County v Holder

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Cited in a SCOTUS opinion 😃 ... ... ... ... in a shitty Alito opinion😠

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Greetings from LA! Looking forward to sharing a nearly-polished draft of our working paper, "The Disparate and Durable Effects of Mail Voting Restrictions: Evidence from Texas." Buckle up for some CRAZY effect sizes 🧵

1 replies 18 reposts 36 likes

Reposted by Kevin Morris

Taniel 's avatar Taniel @taniel.bsky.social
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As we wait for results, mainly from WV & MD, my usual election night reminder:

If you prize how bolts is spotlighting local politics, & want us to continue doing this: we're a nonprofit newsroom that thrives on your support! You can become a member: boltsmag.org/donate

1 replies 6 reposts 24 likes

Reposted by Kevin Morris

Don Moynihan's avatar Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social
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This TX voting law is terrible, designed to impose burdens in voting. The fact that it has large effects and disparate effects is unsurprising, though its important to see these confirmed, and to see how the law continues to reduce turnout across multiple cycles. responsivegov.org/research/und...

2 replies 27 reposts 67 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Finally, a note: these are high efficacy, high turnout voters. They were voting in a midterm primary! 85% had perfect turnout between 2016--2020 generals. These effects would prob be even larger for other voters

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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3. Looking at turnout isn't enough. Voters shift to a costlier vote mode after a rejection. In fact, the turnout effects for folks with a ballot rejection was _larger_ in the 2024 primary than 2022 general. Higher C term reduced turnout less in general than the (uncomp) primary

1 replies 3 reposts 7 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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So, a couple of takeaways: 1. Racially motivated restrictions restrict access for racial and ethnic minorities 2. Looking at the effects of a crappy law in a single election aren't enough; they can have effects for years...

1 replies 3 reposts 10 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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And in a really perverse outcome, the 2022 primary rejection continued to reduce turnout TWO YEARS LATER by 7--10pts. That's a crazy large effect, if this isn't your home literature

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Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Oh, but hang on. That _understates_ the costs imposed, since thousands of these folks moved to voting in person if they _did_ vote

1 replies 1 reposts 5 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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But that's not all; in the 2022 general election, turnout cratered for folks with an application rejection (-16pts). Even for folks with a ballot rejection, it declined among this high-propensity group by 1.5pts

1 replies 1 reposts 6 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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The effects weren't felt equally across all voters; voters of color had their ballots and applications rejected at considerably higher rates (on ballots, +5pts net of covariates)

1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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The same thing applies for ballots. But in the 2022 primary, the field was *hidden under the envelope flap.* This led to huge rejection rates; more than 10% of people who started the process were rejected

1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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First, some background: in 2021, TX passed SB1. Among other things, it requires voters to put either their DL or SSN # on their mail ballot app. The catch? They have to remember which one they used before! Guess wrong, get rejected

1 replies 3 reposts 9 likes

Kevin Morris's avatar Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social
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Greetings from LA! Looking forward to sharing a nearly-polished draft of our working paper, "The Disparate and Durable Effects of Mail Voting Restrictions: Evidence from Texas." Buckle up for some CRAZY effect sizes 🧵

1 replies 18 reposts 36 likes