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Michael Plank

@michaelplanknz.bsky.social

786 followers 356 following 345 posts

Professor of Applied Mathematics @UCNZ. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him

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Ed Hill's avatar Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social
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🧪 #H5N1 #influenza poses a threat to wildlife, livestock & public health.

🐄 Have been recent cases in US cattle herds & spillover infections to humans

❓How can mathematical modellers contribute to the health response?

🔗 to Plus Magazine article to find out more: plus.maths.org/content/beat...

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Reposted by Michael Plank

Reposted by Michael Plank

Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Amazing week at the Mathematical Institute in Oxford- thanks Ruth Baker for hosting and everyone for all the interesting conversations. I have to stay longer next time!

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Marc Veldhoen's avatar Marc Veldhoen @marcveld.bsky.social
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Inactivation of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus in Raw Milk at 63°C and 72°C

Is drinking pasteurised milk containing influenza virus dangerous?
Please read this paper with care and no hasty conclusions.

www.nejm.org/doi/ful...
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's avatar @paulmainwood.bsky.social
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Falling vaccination rates - a long-term trend in the UK since before the pandemic - has already allowed measles outbreaks in the Midlands and London.
An obvious question: what about the other diseases the vaccines had suppressed?
The next is already here. open.substack.com/pub/paulmain...

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Reposted by Michael Plank

Reposted by Michael Plank

Marc Veldhoen's avatar Marc Veldhoen @marcveld.bsky.social
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Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir and Symptoms in Adults With Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Is #LongCovid caused by a persistent viral presence? We do not know the cause, although persistent virus has no correlation, worth to make sure.

jamanetwork.com/jour...
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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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No, vaccines are not causing excess deaths, part 46922

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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There's a lot of respiratory disease out there at the moment - some of it is Covid (orange), a lot of it is other viruses. It's likely we are close to winter Covid peak whereas flu will probably peak later in the winter. Not too late to get your Covid + flu vaccines!

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's avatar @paulmainwood.bsky.social
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A big safety review.
Nuffield Oxford full observational analysis of COVID vaccine risks in under 18s in UK vs background risk. N = 5.1m.
Results:
5-11 years: no excesses.
12-17s: ~5-per-million excess myocarditis cases per dose of BNT/Pfizer + two other uncertains.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

1 replies 1 reposts 5 likes

Reposted by Michael Plank

Reposted by Michael Plank

Marc Daalder 😷 Wear a Mask's avatar Marc Daalder 😷 Wear a Mask @marcdaalder.bsky.social
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Paywall now lifted: Why an Australian who has caught bird flu is less worrying to New Zealand than an outbreak of the H5N1 virus in American cows.
newsroom.co.nz/2024/05/27/u...

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Must admit I didn't think even the Tories would have the nerve to gut public services so badly they need to rely on unpaid labour just to keep running, then spin it as a bold vision to give the decadent youth of today some much needed backbone

1 replies 3 reposts 10 likes

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Helen Branswell's avatar Helen Branswell @helenbranswell.bsky.social
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1. #CDC has posted an analysis of the #H5N1 #birdflu virus from the farm worker in Michigan. Key points:
— It is H5N1. (They only knew the H5 part on Wed.)
— I assume this is the avian N1 because CDC does not say otherwise. If this were a reassortant with a human N1, they would say so.

2 replies 11 reposts 33 likes

Reposted by Michael Plank

Reposted by Michael Plank

Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Yes the government seems to be rowing against the international tide on a number of fronts

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Reposted by Michael Plank

Joanne Hewitt's avatar Joanne Hewitt @joannehewittnz.bsky.social
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poops.nz Updated dashboard -New Zealand wastewater COVID-19 surveillance. Weekending 19 May 2024. Increase 📈trend nationally in SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater. KP.3 was at 22% weekending 5 May (delay due to seq machine issues). Another update on variants next week.

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Reminder not to approach or touch sick or dead birds and if you see 3 or more call it in - public awareness is an important part of our early detection system for avian influenza!
www.mpi.govt.nz/biosecurity/...

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Reposted by Michael Plank

Marc Veldhoen's avatar Marc Veldhoen @marcveld.bsky.social
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Repeated vaccination does not appear to significantly weaken the protective effect of influenza vaccine in the elderly: A test-negative case-control study in China

Does repeated influenza vaccination negatively impact vaccine effectiveness? No!

www.sciencedirect.co...
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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Almost like they have a bunch of disparate pet projects but haven't bothered to join the dots and work through what delivering those actually looks like

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Yep it will be a major barrier. And seems completely at odds with their stated aim of improving school attendance.

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Quite a jump in Covid hospitalisations to 242 from 152 last week. Plus flu season is just beginning.
Reminder you can book Covid & flu vaccines at bookmyvaccine.health.nz
Covid booster free for all over 30s
Flu jab available for all over 6 mo, free for 65+ & other risk groups

2 replies 14 reposts 24 likes

Reposted by Michael Plank

Prof Sheena Cruickshank 's avatar Prof Sheena Cruickshank @sheencr.bsky.social
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International students bring new ideas, culture and boost local economies so why oh why if you want the UK to be work leading in science and innovation would you try and curb international students?

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Marc Veldhoen's avatar Marc Veldhoen @marcveld.bsky.social
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Excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020–2022

Did the differences in mitigation policies during the pandemic in otherwise similar countries make a difference in excess mortality?

academic.oup.com/eur...
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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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I must admit I find studies like this on hospitalised cohorts a bit tricky to interpret anyway as they don't tell us anything about what % of infections were hospitalised so can't compare overall fatality rates, only in a subset of already severe cases

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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This is a good point from Michael. Death rate amongst over 65s hospitalised for covid was 35% (confidence interval 10%-66%) higher than those hospitalised for influenza **in a pop where almost twice as many are recently vaccinated for flu than for covid**

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Reposted by Michael Plank

Marc Daalder 😷 Wear a Mask's avatar Marc Daalder 😷 Wear a Mask @marcdaalder.bsky.social
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Paywall now lifted: Diplomats representing New Zealand at negotiations for a Pandemic Treaty have been told by the Government to focus on making sure New Zealand can opt out of international health rules rather than stopping future pandemics. newsroom.co.nz/2024/05/16/h...

4 replies 14 reposts 22 likes

Reposted by Michael Plank

Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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It's amazing to see kea regularly in murch. I've been going there for years and only starting seeing them regularly down near the river in the last year or so. Sadly they're a less common sight these days in many other places

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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health on avg than ppl dying 10 yrs ago. Still it's reassuring to be at or below pre pandemic rates

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Yeah I agree that's likely a big part of it. At the same time it's possible death rates are still slightly above where they would have been if there had not been a pandemic- long term health improvements have a lot of momentum - ppl dying now have been living for 80 yrs with slightly better

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Should add - I'm talking about age standardised mortality rates, i.e. accounting for the fact that we have an ageing population

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Long-term downward trend in death rates due to overall health improvements that were already "baked in" before the pandemic is big part of it I think. Also big overlap in the cohorts at high risk of Covid vs other respiratory illness. I don't think it's cos we all started eating sourdough🤣

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Agree. Also should point out that study estimated Covid mortality rate was 35% higher (confidence interval 10%-66%), not 60% higher as OP claimed; and all-cause death rates in NZ are lower now than pre-pandemic
bsky.app/profile/mich...

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Michael Plank's avatar Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social
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Agree - if symptomatic stay home where possible, wear a mask if you do need to go out should be the norm

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