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Philip Bump@pbump.com |
17915 followers 206 following 4436 posts
Washington Post: National columnist. Newsletter: "How To Read This Chart." Book: "The Aftermath." philip.bump@washpost.com
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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The post-debate Times poll is interesting in part because several groups (Black voters, under 30, men) now view the race as they did in April.
Polling averages, though, show a modest shift against Biden in a race where such shifts can be a big problem.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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There is nothing that politics-obsessed Democrats spend more time thinking about than the Times poll in particular so prepare for an energetic afternoon.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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dude always wants credit
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Read the post!
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Being snotty about things I obviously know about is obnoxious.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Democrats and Biden have put enormous emphasis on the risk Trump poses to democracy. It's central to his support. But Biden barely mentioned it in the debate and swing-district Democrats have downplayed it. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
2 replies 1 reposts 18 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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If the right is fighting a "second American Revolution," as Heritage's guy put it, it's worth identifying what they are rebelling against. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
11 replies 77 reposts 211 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Oh, right. Yes!
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Well, no! There are laws that guide Congress. Ignoring how things work is different from there not being constraints on how things work.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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I think it's funny that there have been all these close reads of the DNC rules about their candidates as if they are somehow set in stone. It's the party's rules! They can just change them completely! It's not the law!
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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The question isn’t *how* a president would violate the law when engaging in an “official act,” it’s that he can.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
1 replies 10 reposts 58 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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A poll conducted post-debate shows:
- no shift in the horse race since April
- Harris faring better (though not significantly) than Biden against Trump
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
0 replies 10 reposts 61 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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The 16 most conservative members of the House GOP caucus all took office since the 2016 election. So did the Speaker. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
3 replies 7 reposts 26 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Walked through the ways, including and beyond immunity, that Trump would be unfettered in a return to the White House. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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I will listen to West Side Story because I have seen the play and the movie and I understand what undergirds it. Also I generally listen to hip-hop and … what I’ve heard of Hamilton sounds like a teacher doing hip-hop?
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Weirdly we don’t spend a lot of time talking about musicals so I don’t know.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Nope. Seemed like it would lose something without the stage.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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I have never seen it either!
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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This is similar to the distinction I was drawing here, between the official act and the method employed in service of that act. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
0 replies 4 reposts 16 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Rejecting the Seal Team 6 scenario on the details is just an effort to downplay the immunity question broadly. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
2 replies 4 reposts 28 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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32.4%-ish
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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What if I told you that your assessment is deeply ignorant?
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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CNN's new poll doesn't establish some failsafe alternative to Biden for Democrats. But it does run against the twin ideas that the debate itself doomed Biden and that Harris isn't a viable alternative. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
18 replies 34 reposts 150 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Well, "the boom" isn't the same as the generational identifier! So saying "1964 equals Baby Boom" is right in the vernacular. She just wasn't born in the actual boom after which the generation is named. I was just trying to help you save face / share a factoid.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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While we talk about the boom as encompassing 1946 to 1964, demographers note that it really began mid-1946 and ended mid-1964. Harris, born in Oct 1964, can therefore fairly be described as Gen X.
8 replies 7 reposts 114 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Most Republicans in Congress took office after the 2016 election. They are more conservative than those who took office before Trump won that year. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
5 replies 10 reposts 31 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Bold to be the first Dem legislator to call for Biden to step down the day after SCOTUS granted the president "kill your enemies" authority.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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The new expectation of immunity is only one way in which a second Trump presidency would operate outside of traditional limits and accountability.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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seal teams one through five: *sigh*
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Well, Caleb has other interests. www.thedailybeast.com/pro-trump-st...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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It's useful to remember that the court that granted Trump immunity is heavily a product of non-majority power in the first place.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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A potential Trump VP is worried about the "Biden dictatorship" but assures the world that everyone will respect an election result that "both parties agree to."
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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"The risk the SCOTUS majority identifies is that others might be prosecuted, not that others — or reelected presidents — might feel confident in ignoring the law. Instead of addressing what’s happening, they excuse it by theorizing about what might."
wapo.st/4bquy5M
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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It will take a while to know what effect the debate had on the presidential race, if any — and it's way harder to game out Trump-vs.-someone-else scenarios. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
1 replies 1 reposts 17 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Most Americans opposed presidential immunity. But then most voters opposed the presidents who nominated several justices to the court and most Americans were represented by senators who opposed their confirmations. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
2 replies 67 reposts 243 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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are you saying... the ai... is wrong???
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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til only 2 million people lived in the US in 1995
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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A good lens into views of democracy comes from a Trump VP short-lister who on Sunday talked about the "Biden dictatorship" (executive orders). www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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If you have a press list, please add philip.bump@washpost.com !
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Reporters and pundits don't care that much about selling subscriptions.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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No, it isn't. Go away.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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I get that this makes you feel better, but it comes off as nothing more than obnoxious.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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In fairness, it would be funny if Kimberly Guilfoyle was the nexus of American politics.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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The immunity decision was upside down, fretting about the indictment of Trump as a harbinger of future threats to the presidency instead of recognizing Trump's actions as a past and current one.
Gift link: wapo.st/4bquy5M
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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The state of Twitter is that the world's dumbest people are no longer facing sanction for saying idiotic embarrassing shit and so it's like wandering into a public restroom that hasn't been cleaned in 42 years.
5 replies 16 reposts 141 likes
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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I just wanted to share that, for inexplicable reasons, I also posted this on Twitter. Immediately, some right-wing blogger accused me of getting hilariously emotional about things. In short order, someone tagged The Post asking if I actually thought Frost v. Nixon was a SCOTUS case.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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No.
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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From May. www.cnn.com/2024/05/24/p...
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Philip Bump
@pbump.com
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For your consideration in the less important news of the day: post-debate polls aren't going to tell you much yet, if they tell you much at all in the future. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
0 replies 0 reposts 8 likes