WeatherTiger

WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 17:43 UTC

This week's hurricane newsletter goes deep on Beryl's forecast impacts in Jamaica, the Yucatan, and western Gulf, and how other seasons with early season activity in the deep Tropical Atlantic turned out. Lots more at the link:

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 17:42 UTC

Those 10 seasons are 1887, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2018, 2020 and 2021. Heavy hitters in there.

#Beryl doesn’t guarantee any particular outcome in 2024. However, historical analogs square with the expectation of a hyperactive season based on the totality of evidence.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 17:42 UTC

With #HurricaneBeryl, 2024 is the 11th hurricane season in last 150 years in which a hurricane developed south of 20N, east of 80W prior to Aug 1.

The other 10 seasons went on to average twice or more the normal number of U.S./Florida hurricane and major hurricane landfalls.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:10 UTC

#HurricaneBeryl became the strongest July #hurricane ever this morning. Jamaica, the Yucatan peninsula, & western Gulf Coast should be watching #Beryl carefully as NHC track edges north.

Today's newsletter has my latest thoughts on an evolving forecast:

weathertiger.substack.com/p/category-5...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:20 UTC

Category 4 #HurricaneBeryl is plowing through the Windward Islands today and will menace the Caribbean this week, but risks to the U.S. from #Beryl are minimal.

New Monday morning newsletter breaking down latest developments and forecast impacts here:

weathertiger.substack.com/p/major-hurr...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 21:22 UTC

Newly formed #TropicalDepression2 puts the Windward Islands on alert for potential Cat 2 hurricane hit on Monday. Certainly plausible in the favorable outflow regime shown on most guidance.

Full #TD2 details in today's WeatherTiger #hurricane newsletter:

weathertiger.substack.com/p/triple-tro...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 01:44 UTC

The “Cape Verde” portion of #hurricaneseason may kick off this week, quite early by historical standards. The reason why this keeps happening may SHOCK YOU, or perhaps prove mildly interesting.

Full forecast and the STUNNING answer in this week’s column.

weathertiger.substack.com/p/ship-of-fu...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 19, 2024 at 16:30 UTC

It's an odd couple situation in the Tropics this week, with huge #TSAlberto in the western Gulf, a small disturbance approaching Florida from the east, and the potential for an immediate reboot.

Details on the impact of #Alberto &co in this week's column:

weathertiger.substack.com/p/el-gordo-y...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 17, 2024 at 20:39 UTC

The NHC has begun advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 in the Gulf of Mexico. #PTC1 will be another large system with rains rather than wind as the key impact, and those impacts will extend far from the center into Texas.

Daily update for subs: weathertiger.substack.com/p/under-the-...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 12, 2024 at 16:38 UTC

This week's Hurricane Watch newsletter covers the continuing heavy rainfall in Florida as the odds of the 1st named storm of Hurricane Season 2024 developing in the upcoming 7 days tick upward.

But what's in a name? Is rain by any other name just as wet?

weathertiger.substack.com/p/hot-gulf-r...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 05, 2024 at 19:12 UTC

Lots more climatological fun facts, like how June is like the bun-warming lid on the George Foreman Grill of hurricane season, at this week's newsletter.

Read here:

weathertiger.substack.com/p/hitting-cl...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 05, 2024 at 19:11 UTC

WeatherTiger's 1st weekly column of the 2024 season looks at potential tropical activity mid-month and dives into June's colorful #hurricane history.

Interestingly, June has the highest % of U.S. impacts relative to total ACE. Nearly 1/5th of June ACE occurs near or over CONUS, 4x Aug-Oct ratio.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 03, 2024 at 20:09 UTC

Happy first (week)day of hurricane season! You all must have set out distilled water and 9-volt batteries for the Cyclone Imp on Hurricane Season Eve, as 2024 kicks off with nothing of note in the Atlantic. Tropical bulletins for supporters start now and continue each weekday through 11/1.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] May 22, 2024 at 15:53 UTC

WeatherTiger's #HurricaneSeason2024 forecast is out now.

The most likely outcome is overall tropical activity more than twice average, with little chance of a quiet season and over 90% odds of a hyperactive year among the top dozen since 1950.

Read here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/weathertig...

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] May 21, 2024 at 16:10 UTC

ALERT: WeatherTiger's seasonal activity and U.S. landfall risk forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season will be released tomorrow, May 22, at 11 a.m. EDT.

Look for a post here or sign up now at weathertiger.substack.com to get the full report in your inbox.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] May 15, 2024 at 14:13 UTC

May 15 is day 1 of 200 for Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center. Fortunately, outlook #1 is a beautifully empty map.

Today's newsletter debunks rumors of pre-season tropical activity ahead of WeatherTiger's updated #HurricaneSeason2024 outlook release on May 22nd.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 09, 2024 at 13:02 UTC

Totality. Cave City, Arkansas.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 04, 2024 at 17:47 UTC

Hurricane season 2024 outlooks are calling for a hyperactive season. However, it's still too soon to confidently predict U.S. impacts. Our analytics show a >90% chance of a top tercile ACE season, but only a ~55% chance of top tercile season from a U.S. landfall perspective.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 22, 2024 at 16:45 UTC

Thanks for reading! There's lots more discussion in the full outlook linked below, but the upshot is that the pieces are there for an extremely busy hurricane season. Enjoy and don't forget to sign up for WeatherTiger's free hurricane newsletters.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 22, 2024 at 16:44 UTC

WeatherTiger’s March forecast for the 2024 season has a most likely outcome around 195 ACE, or ~190% of 1950-2023 mean. Below or near normal (<130 ACE): 10% Above normal (130-160 ACE): 15% Hyperactive (>160 ACE): 75%. 50% chances of 160-225 ACE, 20-24 TS, 9-12 H, & 4-7 MH.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 22, 2024 at 16:43 UTC

Putting those together, that means 2024 is going to be in rare company, amongst just 8 other years since 1950 to have a cool Pacific and very warm Atlantic. Six of these eight years were "hyperactive" Atlantic hurricane seasons, with 60-150% more activity than normal.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 22, 2024 at 16:43 UTC

In the Pacific, an El Nino lingers, but it's about to fall apart like a paper straw. Cooler waters at depth will surface in the next few months, and at least a weak La Nina is likely by August. That means less wind shear to keep storms in check in the Caribbean and W. Atlantic.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 22, 2024 at 16:42 UTC

Right off the bat, we can see that the Tropical Atlantic is absurdly warm in spring 2024. That might change somewhat between now and August, but the Atlantic is so warm that it's highly probable it will remain at least above normal. That's favorable for hurricane activity.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 22, 2024 at 16:42 UTC

Let's look at what influences hurricane seasons. This boils down to whether:1) The Tropical Atlantic is warmer (favorable) or cooler (unfavorable) than normal; 2) The Pacific is in an El Nino (unfavorable) or La Nina (favorable) state during the peak of the season (Aug-Oct).

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 22, 2024 at 16:41 UTC

Lead, follow, or get out of the way. The wisdom of Big Dog summarizes our predicament as hurricane season approaches. With Atlantic warmth leading & La Nina soon to follow, WeatherTiger is predicting a very active 2024. 👇Highlights below, full outlook linked at end of thread:

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Mar 21, 2024 at 15:20 UTC

ALERT: WeatherTiger's initial outlook for the 2024 Hurricane Season will be released tomorrow, March 22, at 11 a.m. EDT.

Look for a thread here or sign up at weathertiger.substack.com to get the full report via email.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social [ View ] Dec 15, 2023 at 20:50 UTC

Heads up, Florida: a non-tropical low will bring 2-4" of rain and gusts of 30-40 mph inland and 40-50 mph on the coast this weekend. Worst conditions late Saturday into early Sunday. Deflate those 20’ yard-Rudolphs if you don’t want to see if reindeer really know how to fly.

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