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Bill Haneberg@haneberg.bsky.social |
114 followers 149 following 264 posts
Geologist at the geohazard•climate•policy nexus. Terrain modeling, probabilistic tools, geomechanics, GIS, scicomm. Lots to do with landslides. Runner, cyclist, hiker, cook. Albuquerque, New Mexico. He/him. More at www.linkedin.com/in/billhaneberg
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Robert Mahon
@bedform.bsky.social
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Apropos of a conversation I had today with a non-scientist: Climate risks are not going to be isolated to the "usual" vulnerable places. Remember Hurricane Ida (which was my first hurricane evacuation from NOLA)? It hit Louisiana as a cat 4, but caused more $ damage and deaths in NJ+NY+PA than LA
1 replies 12 reposts 36 likes
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Susan Crawford
@scrawford.bsky.social
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Honky tonk and concentrated physical risk - today's post about the Florida Keys, where the maps are almost 20 years out of date susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/escalation...
0 replies 4 reposts 7 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Interesting. Variability often scales with the mean—the coefficient of variation idea—but maybe not in this case. It's important for landslides because you can say that the mean precip controls antecedent soil moisture and extreme events are the specific triggers. Wetter soils => smaller triggers.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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To a degree. If you're near the ocean, then yes. We have saline groundwater resources here in New Mexico, but there are complications. If you pump it from unlithified strata, you stress a compressible system and can cause land subsidence. Deeper strata are less compressible but yield far less water.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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A fascinating take on the Great Unconformity as a metaphor for the erasure of human history. @sarahkendzior.bsky.social picks up on the fact that the unconformity per se is nothing—an imaginary surface separating rocks of different ages—but that it represents the immensity of geologic time.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Since I can’t edit the post after the fact, I’ll point out that water is stored behind—not in—the dam. And that I meant drought-proof, not drought/proof.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Albuquerque’s made a lot of progress over the past few decades, especially switching to groundwater as a reserve rather than primary supply, but I wouldn’t say that switching to Colorado River water stored in a 100-year-old dam as climate changes ever constituted “drought/proof”.
2 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Justin Mikulka
@justinmikulka.bsky.social
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"Already, the benefits are clear. In Texas, batteries helped stave off blackouts last summer. In Utah, they’re helping a utility deal with a sudden surge in electricity demand. In California, storage is displacing fossil gas"
1 replies 4 reposts 12 likes
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Andrew Dessler
@andrewdessler.bsky.social
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Anyone who thinks that temperatures in the 1930s were as high as today's is confusing global temperatures with temperatures in the U.S., which makes up 2% of the surface area of the globe. Globally, the 1930s were much much cooler than today.
1 replies 19 reposts 58 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Something I have never understood is the claim by climate change dismissives and deniers is that “the models are wrong”. Time after time we see that the models are remarkably—and depressingly—accurate.
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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Studies have shown that it is ideology & tribalism that drives climate denial; and in turn, much of today’s ideology + polarization is driven by fear of loss of privilege. Those in the demographic that have been at the top of the pyramid for so long are threatened by anything that challenges that.
0 replies 11 reposts 21 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Not only do we not have the landscape for climate change, climate change has the potential to change the landscape. It'll be a moving target.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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The big question is, why? I don’t want to get ahead of myself by speculating about causes or triggers, but it would be irresponsible not to consider climate change as a factor. You can say it’s just more people living in hazardous areas, but also need to consider that the hazards are changing.
2 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Laura Fry 🇨🇦
@weaverlaura.bsky.social
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Well will pay for climate change one way or another. Be nice if my money was spent on PREVENTING disasters instead of cleaning up afterwards.
0 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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Le Cagle
@lecagle.bsky.social
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If anyone happens to run across a job like this but for climate and environment stuff, I will will knit you anything in gratitude for sending it to me
2 replies 5 reposts 8 likes
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Nails Nathan
@chadstanton.bsky.social
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“California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey have the most critical infrastructure that needs to be made more flood resilient – or be relocated to safer ground.”
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
4 replies 31 reposts 76 likes
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Madison Condon
@madisoncondon.bsky.social
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hear me out: expected individual responses to annual price spikes isn't an adaptation plan
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
0 replies 3 reposts 8 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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More extreme fire + more extreme rainfall = more extreme post-fire landslide, debris flow, and flood events. The hazard persists for years. Parts of northern New Mexico affected by the awful 2022 Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak fires also suffered major flooding during the same round of storms last week.
0 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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I’ve spoken with dozens of journalists about geohazards over the years. Most are genuinely interested, inquisitive, smart people but 1) don’t know the technical details of our work and 2) are working under deadlines and with length limitations. It’s our job to facilitate understanding and insight.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Sadly, I know of one case in which a state university research center pulled back in anticipation of what they thought the legislature might do even before a law was passed (and hasn’t yet been in that state).
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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True, the cancer cells don’t care, but I don’t think it’s the carrots in carrot cake that’ll get you!
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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That's a great quote and I've long respected Richard Alley's insight. I can see how it could help kick off discussions among open-minded people of good will; however, I also think that at this point anyone who is a climate change denier or dismissive will not be swayed no matter how logical it is.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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They always seem to skip over the weird shit happens part, mass extinctions and the like.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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True! Their argument seems to be that we can throw caution to the wind because nothing we do will make a difference compared to nature (except for the CO2 is plant food crowd that thinks we should be pumping out all we can).
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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If the judiciary wants to judge, let’s let them do their newly appropriated jobs without interference from trained and experienced agency scientific experts.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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It’s tedious. In my circles—which include lots of old white man geologists who’re sure they have a uniquely informed perspective—you still hear the hotter in the past, natural variability, heat island, only 0.04%, cold kills more people, and deaths have decreased arguments. None merit debate.
1 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Michael E. Mann
@michaelemann.bsky.social
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"Heatwaves Behind the Scenes: Drivers, Mechanisms, Changes, and Impacts" | Consider submitting an abstract to our session (A091) at AGU 2024 Fall Meeting in DC (co-conveners Xueke Li, Michael Wehner & yours truly): agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/pr...
#AGU24 #ClimateChange #heatwaves
0 replies 4 reposts 10 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows, too. Those same river and shoreline routes are in many cases along the toes of slopes that can be destabilized by extreme rainfall and floods.
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Laura Helmuth
@laurahelmuth.bsky.social
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We're going to be hearing a lot about the SCOTUS case on the Chevron defense soon. This is important. And it's one more reason the Supreme Court theocrats are dangerous. www.scientificamerican.com/article/supr...
2 replies 77 reposts 176 likes
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Sean Casten
@seancasten.bsky.social
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Interesting data from NERC. The forced outage rate (e.g. the inverse of reliability) for coal power is rising in the US as plants reach end of life and don't get maintained as well anymore. Stick a fork in coal power... it's done.
1 replies 6 reposts 15 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Pumping—mining, really—groundwater on an industrial agricultural scale in the American West has been unsustainable from day one. There is no such thing as safe yield in an arid land; recharge is near zero. Climate change, tragically for the people involved, accelerates the inevitable.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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I’ll file this under “Why I’m glad I resigned as a well-paid (gotta give them that) research center director at an R1 university and moved to New Mexico to work on interesting consulting projects as they arise.”
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Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
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Shot: Nearly 140K properties moved into high risk flood category in new FEMA flood map update across Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach counties in FL. Chaser: To access Citizens, the FL state insurer of last resort (when you can't get hurricane coverage), you now have to also buy a FEMA flood policy.
4 replies 33 reposts 38 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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It feels odd to "like" this but studies like these are important because there is so much misinformation circulating, including claims that wildfires are actually decreasing (no, I won't link to those). Too bad there isn't an "important" or "significant" icon to click.
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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At the cutting edge of climate research, individual extreme event attribution now takes only days to quantify the human fingerprint. The latest analysis shows that the crippling early season heatwave enveloping the lower US and Mexico is 35 times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
5 replies 93 reposts 203 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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I gave up on Elsevier several years ago when a manuscript I submitted was bounced back without review as being inappropriate for the journal. The reason? I had not cited enough papers previously published in that journal. The journal's editors-in-chief did not think that was a problem.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Agreed, the influence in general is a good thing. Water resources in the desert in a changing climate are nightmarishly complicated. Water availability in New Mexico—regardless is who gets it—is forecast to decrease by 25% over the next 50 years, so we’ll need new and courageous solutions.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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As someone who’s pretty progressive and worked on NM and transboundary water resource issues, I’m shaking my head in disbelief about that decision because it essentially sets the Rio Grande water compact clock back to 1938. It’s a complicated situation that’s now going to get worse.
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Indian (despite two memorably miserable episodes of food poisoning there, I still love the aromas and flavors) or New Mexican (mostly red > green, especially carne adovada with fresh homemade tortillas).
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Being a scientist, I thought it would be interesting to compare my current home of Albuquerque with Houston and Seattle—places I've also lived during the past 25 years—and the global trend. I also like the bar charts better than stripes. The global trend shows how local anomalies offset each other.
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Leah Stokes
@leahstokes.bsky.social
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Lately, journalists have asked if scientists didn't warn us enough, or didn't know how bad climate change would be.
Scientists did their jobs. It's fossil fuel companies who lied about climate impacts FOR DECADES. They're to blame for these heat waves.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...
26 replies 305 reposts 681 likes
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Dr Melanie Zeppel
@drmelz.bsky.social
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Every scientist I know working in climate has done days & days of outreach… it’s not the lack of Sci Comms that’s the issue 🧪
1 replies 23 reposts 54 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Yesterday's dust storm (aka haboob) moving from Texas into New Mexico was amazing. Here in Albuquerque, north of the images, the 10,000+ foot Sandia and Manzano Mountains spared us the dust but it was still unusually windy. The eastern skyline was surreal.
satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event/stunni...
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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Precisely my point. It’s interesting (as well as ironic and discouraging) how some who follow the science on climate—and are infuriated by others who don’t—are not always interested in following the science on public opinion, effective messaging & framing, and how to catalyze change.
1 replies 6 reposts 32 likes
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Patrick Canning
@patrickcanning.bsky.social
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This is the climate change impact that matters: no food. I've been begging people for years to stop going on about sea level rise and focus on this.
2 replies 28 reposts 71 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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This will no doubt be invaluable for those of us interested in landslide and debris flow triggering precipitation events in a changing climate, including post-wildfire slides and flows.
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Dave Petley
@davepetley.bsky.social
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At Longiarù in the Dolomite region of northern Italy, a slow moving mudflow is threatening a village. Over 50 houses have been evacuated:- eos.org/thelandslide...
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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As I explain here, climate change is not only loading the weather dice against us, it's also replacing some of the numbers with extra 6's and even some 7s and an 8 -- making heatwaves more dangerous, heavy downpours more frequent, droughts longer and stronger, hurricanes intensify faster, and more.
4 replies 73 reposts 193 likes
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Bill Haneberg
@haneberg.bsky.social
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Yes, tornado frequency is changing. Yes, population patterns are changing. Yes, property values are changing. It's a complex problem. That means, even more, that we can't simplistically dismiss climate and claim it's a result of too many people building too many expensive houses.
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Susan Crawford
@scrawford.bsky.social
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For the first time, a new paper allows Americans to see how sharply insurance costs are rising in risky areas - and imagine the consequences for the country as a whole susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/making-tox...
2 replies 16 reposts 30 likes