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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Also the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty about something doesn’t imply that every decision is reasonable.
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Itai Sher@itaisher.bsky.social |
1336 followers 349 following 477 posts
Economics and Ethics, UMass Amherst
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Also the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty about something doesn’t imply that every decision is reasonable.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Informal reasoning is extremely important and underrated. Many crucial decisions are made on the basis of informal judgment where people could say, “no one can really know”.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Seems like there is beginning to be a shift back in the right direction. The stick with Biden equilibrium is inherently unstable because it is a “close your eyes and lose” equilibrium and Dems really don’t want to lose.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Democrats 2012: Look at those Republicans, grasping at straws to deny the polls showing their candidate losing. Democrats 2024: Unskew the polls!
9 replies 9 reposts 30 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Yesterday was a bad day
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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What would you say if you saw it in another country? apnews.com/article/kash...
2 replies 29 reposts 101 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Exactly
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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What elected Democrats don’t seem to realize is how much easier it would be to stand up to Biden now than it will be to stand up to Trump once he becomes President
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I think there is a good chance that Biden will go down in history as an infamous figure and his entire legacy will be defined by what he is doing now
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Dems essentially gave up on pressuring Biden to step down
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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It feels like people just folded … without even fighting
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Today is one of the most depressing days in politics I can remember
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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E.J. Fagan
@ejfagan.bsky.social
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I'd like to add some historical context to the discussions around Project 2025. The discourse misses why Project 2025 is so important. As I write about in my book, Heritage has built something like Project 2025 for every election since 1980, but this time it's different. Big 🧵
1 replies 24 reposts 37 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Depressing that Biden has such a strong preference for remaining the candidate in a race he will lose rather than bowing out and giving Democrats a chance to win and that other Dems are choosing the same Insuring Biden’s position in the coming weeks at the expense of the future
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I think this is right — Biden will cynically challenge others to step forward and challenge him at the convention. The more effective strategy is to ask him to step down in favor of his VP. Come on people, don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Biden is fighting harder to save his own skin than to defeat Trump. Holding on to the nomination now will be a hollow victory when he loses in November.
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Stephen Nuñez
@socio-steve.bsky.social
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I don't think this is going to stop. Right now we are in a slow bleed...2-3 Democrats say Biden should drop out continuing the bleed. The next day the existence of the bleed convinces 2-3 more democrats to say Biden should drop out.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/arti...
5 replies 4 reposts 14 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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The task for Democrats now is to ratchet up pressure on Biden. It involves overcoming a coordination problem because people don’t want to stick their necks out on their own. But Democrats really want to win and there is a lot of dissatisfaction with Biden, so I think they can do it.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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But the letter shows the weakness of his position: imagine being told months ago that Biden would write such a letter. It is very bad news for his candidacy that he has to write it.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Biden is going to say 100% “I am not going anywhere” until he decides go. Showing any doubt ends it for him. He is trying to stick it out and forestall further defections. But I don’t think the ironclad assurance means anything other than that he hasn’t decided to step down yet.
2 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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www.politico.com/news/2024/07...
2 replies 1 reposts 16 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I have often argued that one should not always provide subjective probabilities, but in this case I have some to offer. Chance that Harris wins if nominated: 45% Chance that Biden wins if nominated: 25% 20% is a big difference.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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“Pledge to run positive only campaigns” — I don’t think that’s going to work out
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Sen. Gogurt taking notes on a criminal conspiracy
@ugarles.bsky.social
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... so God says "I sent you a fireman, I sent you a boat, I sent you a helicopter..."
5 replies 17 reposts 122 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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At this moment the single most effective thing that Democrats can do to prevent a second Trump Presidency is to pressure Biden to exit the race.
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Hunter Walker
@hunterw.bsky.social
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Biden is denying his poll numbers, touting a "peace plan" as war rages in the Middle East, and arguing that he's not "frail." This is simply a brutal interview and a bad position to be running from.
1 replies 1 reposts 10 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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The argument for dropping Biden shouldn’t be based on polls. Really the argument is you don’t take a plane with a faulty engine on a dangerous trip; it seems faith in Biden is already badly shaken & he could easily have a relapse after the convention. We need a capable candidate to take on Trump.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I really don’t see how Biden regains people’s confidence: a good performance or even a string of good performances doesn’t do much to allay fears of a relapse. A good performance is really bad news: it increases the chances that he might try to hang on.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Markets now see Harris as more likely than Biden
3 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I think she’s underrated. Also, a generic Democrat is poised to do pretty well against Trump, who is also unpopular, and Harris is closer to being a generic Democrat than Biden.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I don’t think it is necessary for Biden to resign the Presidency to drop out of the race; I think it is sufficient that he endorses Harris.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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Biden at less than 50% for the nomination
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I did. The fact that the President of the United States appears not to be competent (also as a candidate against Trump) is a big story.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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The Supreme Court decision also got top billing. Biden’s performance was the biggest story of the debate.
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I think the editorial that Biden drop out was constructive
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Official act. Immune.
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Omar Wasow
@owasow.bsky.social
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Would be curious to see occurrence of "dam breaks Biden" by hour on Twitter.
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Omar Wasow
@owasow.bsky.social
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My guess is if you could run a secret poll of all Dem members of Congress, governors, and other influential actors, a majority would now opt to have Harris 2024 over Biden 2024. But private coordination isn’t same as public call, so Biden folks are fighting any perception that “dam breaks,” until…
1 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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There seems to be some movement
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Jacob T. Levy
@jacobtlevy.bsky.social
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The Constitution says that in cases of impeachment, "the party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to indictment, trial, judgment and punishment, according to law." It does not except the president. But what impeachable offenses aren't covered by the new doctrine of immunity?
21 replies 72 reposts 350 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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🚨New expert survey data from Bright Line Watch🚨 93% of experts surveyed before the ruling (starting June 20) say that SCOTUS upholding Trump’s immunity claim threatens democracy 60% say it represents an extraordinary threat 27% say it represents a serious threat (Full report coming next week.)
1 replies 49 reposts 85 likes
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OmegaMom
@omegamom.bsky.social
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What gets me is that the “extreme hypothetical” is WHAT BROUGHT THIS CASE TO THEM IN THE FIRST PLACE!!! I mean, a President ginning up a mob to threaten Congress to *not* certify an election…is a REAL THING THAT HAPPENED!!! All those other “hypotheticals” Sotomayer discussed? Trump is SAYING THEM!
1 replies 8 reposts 37 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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/8 At any rate, congratulations to the Federalist Society for an achievement beyond the reach of the British, outside the grasp of bloody civil war, impossible to Nazis and Soviets and terrorists: defeating the American idea.
40 replies 894 reposts 2791 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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There are two elements to the immunity decision that are particularly extreme in a way that many will miss: (1) motive is irrelevant and (2) immune acts are not just excluded from prosecution, they’re excluded from evidence. /1
50 replies 906 reposts 2442 likes
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Itai Sher
@itaisher.bsky.social
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I think that stepping down for re-election without resigning and endorsing Harris is also viable.
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Nicholas Grossman
@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
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The institutions of US democracy are hanging by a thread, and the Supreme Court just frayed it. I cannot emphasize this enough: the 2024 election is effectively an up-or-down vote on Constitutional democracy. All else is secondary, because democracy and rule of law are how we address other issues.
5 replies 46 reposts 106 likes
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Julia Azari
@juliaazari.bsky.social
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i keep re-reading this to make sure i didn't hallucinate
22 replies 137 reposts 514 likes
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Nicholas Grossman
@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
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Yes, the Supreme Court not only effectively declared that Donald Trump has legal permission to try overthrowing the Constitution without consequence, they've also put all future presidents above the law to some extent, thereby removing a powerful incentive for presidents to follow it. Insane.
0 replies 6 reposts 35 likes