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Nick Weininger@nweininger.bsky.social |
3 followers 5 following 63 posts
Composer, singer, software engineer, manager, coach, etc
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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To be fair, it's already an improvement on starting the previous excuse with "I wasn't very smart." On this trajectory maybe he'll get to a decent message in another 4-5 iterations!
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Having a reform agenda is good but far from sufficient. What I have not seen anywhere yet is a serious plan for getting to where you have the votes to pass the reform agenda, especially in an environment where the fed. gov. is controlled by people actively trying to stack the deck against you.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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What evidence do we have that that actually changed actual people's votes in sufficient numbers, as opposed to the hypothetical votes of people in the imagination of pundits?
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Reminder that POTUS can direct the DOJ not to prosecute the trigger puller and, failing that, pardon anyone who carries out his order and still faces federal charges. Utterly lawless.
12 replies 33 reposts 127 likes
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Or at least optional year round childcare! I have a Substack post in draft now about how walkable PreK-8 neighborhood primary schools that offered year round working-day onsite childcare and adjacent retail would be the Best Thing Ever for parents and both pronatal and pro-strong-community
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Even if that's true, there's no good reason to believe that that's *why* they win.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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If that's your model of their reasoning, do you think that belief (that the med. voter opposes reform) is mistaken? If so, why would pols be more systematically mistaken about that than about other questions of what is popular/unpopular?
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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But if we're dreaming, here's one for the if-we-ever-get-a-next-time wishlist: a statutory rule that judges must, without exception, recuse themselves in cases where the defendant appointed them.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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None of that stuff would have had the votes to pass, because the median voter simply does not care about it, and yelling at them about how they are betraying their responsibility to liberal democracy will not make them care.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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I don't think Trump is a good communicator. I also don't think it's fair that he's held to a lower standard than Biden. But you cannot win by working the refs.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Yup, those are all real risks (which should make us angrier at Biden and his advisers for making the awful decision to run again). Now we have to weigh whether they are smaller than the risks of sticking with a visibly declining candidate, which also undermines turnout and splinters consensus.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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You needn't be a dementia alarmist to think that: (a) comms and sales are legit parts of the job so getting worse at those matters, and (b) the actuarial tables say gambling on competence at age 86 is foolish, and the 25th Amendment is almost as dead a letter as the impeachment provision.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Do you though? What statute stops the Senate from just confirming new justices?
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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AFAICT he does not need the House to appoint new justices? He might not have 51 in the Senate due to Manchinema-- but it'd still be worth putting them on record. But AIUI you do not need a new statute to expand the Court.
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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There are two elements to the immunity decision that are particularly extreme in a way that many will miss: (1) motive is irrelevant and (2) immune acts are not just excluded from prosecution, they’re excluded from evidence. /1
50 replies 905 reposts 2436 likes
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Vince Mpls
@vincempls.bsky.social
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March 23 1933, the Enabling Act becomes law in Germany, giving the chief executive power enforce his own laws without checks and balances. The passing of the Act marked the formal transition from democratic republic to totalitarian dictatorship. 6 months later, it was a 1 party state.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Narrator: He's probably going to screw it up.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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If you're going that far, why not just expand the Court now as an emergency measure to immediately overturn this inexcusable decision?
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Carlos Noreña
@carlosfnorena.bsky.social
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"Whatever he considers to be beneficial to the commonwealth and the dignity of divine, human, public, and private affairs, he shall have the right and the power to do and to execute." From the statute that conferred absolute power on the Roman emperor (*Lex de imperio Vespasiani*, section 6). 😬
0 replies 29 reposts 49 likes
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Time to brush up our German vocabulary, folks. The word of the day is Ermachtigungsgesetz.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Put another way: isn't this like saying to people calling for an Israeli ceasefire, "why didn't you call on Hamas to lay down their arms and release the hostages?" I mean, yes, obviously Hamas are morally obliged to do that, and equally obviously they are unpersuadable to do that.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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What do you think the NY Times could say that would convince any significant number of Republicans to behave better?
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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How much weaker does he have to be to make "no such metric has even been meaningfully taken" a +EV gamble? If the Polymarket odds go down to 20%, say, does that do it? 10%?
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Jacob T. Levy
@jacobtlevy.bsky.social
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Yes. Both can be true; indeed, both are true, and not only at Harvard. www.nytimes.com/2024/06/26/u...
2 replies 17 reposts 82 likes
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Ed
@notdred.bsky.social
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I guess I’ve become sort of a science-hype debunker so as far as this goes, let me just say: it’s real. Really really real. You could soon get a shot every six months that would basically eliminate your chance of getting HIV. Taken a step further: we have the tools to eliminate HIV in our lifetime.
46 replies 659 reposts 2134 likes
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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FWIW dunno if they have one in your desired style, but I usually buy bags of that nature from Waterfield, sfbags.com. I have been super happy with the quality and usability (and I swear they did not pay for this plug :))
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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<unsong>Somebody must have boiled a goat in its mother's milk. </unsong>
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Jacob T. Levy
@jacobtlevy.bsky.social
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www.nytimes.com/2024/06/19/o...
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CJ Ciaramella
@cjciaramella.bsky.social
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My latest on the House voting to make enrollment in the Selective Service automatic:
"Equality in the service of a broader deprivation of rights is no virtue, and conscription remains an immoral institution at its core." reason.com/2024/06/15/h...
2 replies 7 reposts 16 likes
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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On that score nondeference seems like a poor substitute for nondelegation, which is frequently conflated with nondeference but AIUI really quite different and more radical, and is the logical endpoint of the anti-executive-discretion argument.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Maybe someday we'll find a way to persuade the median voter to treat "foreigners" as full and equal humans. But that is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes, and until it does the realistic options are heavily comprimising incrementalism and non-democratic methods like court advocacy.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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I mean, I agree with you on the principle of the thing, but politically this is a hopeless loser and advocating it through party political mechanisms in this generation is guaranteed to make things worse by driving normies into the arms of Trumpism.
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AkivaMCohen
@akivamcohen.bsky.social
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Wait, WHAT? This is a thing they could do? Fucking do it
25 replies 232 reposts 845 likes
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Have you read Harsh Times? Some interesting connections to FotG, maybe a notch less moving but still very engaging.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Agree w/the premise. Depressing to think how far away real hope of peace is given that premise. One thing you might have played up more is the moral responsibility of existing liberal democracies to take in refugees from such conflicts, esp. given e.g. US refusal to take in German Jews in the 30s.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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So in all seriousness then, how do you explain why other rich countries which also suffered a lot from COVID didn't see similar crime spikes? Or did they?
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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The flagship of which would, FWIW, have been a total disaster except that a bunch of the world's best website maintainers (several friends of mine among them!) are passionate Democrats and took an extended leave from their cushy private sector jobs to bail the feds out of their usual incompetence.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Under what theory of change does shaming or humiliating Trump's supporters keep him out of office? Isn't this in a sense one of the tradeoffs of the secret ballot, that you can't effectively disincentivize people from voting for evil candidates that way?
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Stacey Burns
@wentrogue.bsky.social
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The immediate flood in the wake of the Dobbs decision has slowed to a trickle as people lose focus. It doesn’t have to be this way. We need sustained pressure and abortion funds of all sizes and forms need reliable funding.
3 replies 213 reposts 272 likes
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David Kaye
@davidkaye.bsky.social
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not some fringe lefty. a former likud prime minister of israel says this www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...
12 replies 437 reposts 1043 likes
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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The white supremacy frame has a hard time explaining how Trump's support among *nonwhite* voters increases steadily as he gets more extreme. A general cross-racial susceptibility to the authoritarian temptation at least accounts for that more parsimoniously.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Closest way I can think to advance something like that is to give to the Progress Action Fund.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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In fact the funniest Onion headline ever, back in the day, was just a pic of Jim McGreevey with the caption "Homosexual Tearfully Admits to Being Governor of New Jersey"
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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Whatever else you may say about Jason Brennan or Garrett Jones, their worldviews jibe pretty well with stuff like this.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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... get motivated to make more-liberal governance happen by hoisting the banner of "self-determination", it's hard to stomach denying them that just because we recognize that their national "self" conception, like all such conceptions, is arbitrary and dumb.
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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This is right in principle, but also AIUI seems in tension with what @jacobtlevy.bsky.social is getting at with "the defense of liberty can't do without identity politics." Like, if Kurds or Ukrainians or whoever are only going to get motivated to make more-liberal governance happen...
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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(I am being charitable with this comparison, insofar as I think the trajectory of public opinion re: open borders in the next 30 years is sadly very unlikely to follow that of gay marriage from 1988-2018).
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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For historical perspective: would it have been a good idea to have a pro gay marriage movement within the Democratic party in, say, 1988? And what could that movement have realistically accomplished then?
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Nick Weininger
@nweininger.bsky.social
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So how do you suggest that movement should thread the needle of being advocates for a position that is very unpopular and widely demonized even within the party itself? Is the place for that advocacy even within the party structure at all?
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Lord Businessman II
@lordbusinessman.bsky.social
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One recurring theme in studying the history of the French Revolution is that everyone's brains were completely cooked on pamphlet conspiracism from the highest to lowest levels of French political life
18 replies 126 reposts 659 likes