Dave Weigel

Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 23:18 UTC

this is a brilliant point that I was struggling to articulate.

20 replies 64 reposts 502 likes

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:54 UTC

I honest-to-god think Biden is a better abortion messenger than liberals admit. The Groups abandoning "safe, legal, and rare" messaging in 2016 was a mistake.

2 replies 0 reposts 14 likes

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:51 UTC

One factoid about the LBJ precedent - his approval rating surged after he bailed out of the 1968 race. Dipped again over the chaotic summer but we'll never know what the dynamic would have been if Biden was going out as a one-term elder statesman.

www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/d...

2 replies 0 reposts 30 likes

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:46 UTC

In the world where Biden bowed out in June 2023, and VP Harris won a contested primary, how's the party doing rn? Better? Worse? I tend to think better. Rs still running against the admin but the principal is able to do lots of public events/interviews and defend the record/attack Trump.

24 replies 5 reposts 102 likes

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:36 UTC

idk - fun hypothetical. Had Trump lost, Rs would have dropped three in a row, and the money in the party would have blamed Trump's crazy nativism and isolationism.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:35 UTC

I think this was the Ramesh Ponnuru position. Cede 2016, lose the Scalia seat, but come back with an R supermajority in 2020.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:25 UTC

I haven't watched all the coverage there but I think Keir Starmer has had to answer two questions - would you have served in a Corbyn cabinet, and can women have a penis - at least 1000 times.

4 replies 3 reposts 46 likes

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:24 UTC

Rs were convinced that Ron Johnson would lose, too. They were bracing for a Hillary win and 50-50 Senate, in which obviously Clinton would have filled the seat. I'm just imagining a world where Rs overperform but Hillary wins MI/WI/PA anyway.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:19 UTC

I don't dispute the overall "Dems are wimps" critique, just being pedantic when people suggest that there was no way Clinton could have confirmed Garland to the Scalia seat.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:16 UTC

That was Ted Cruz, and I'm the guy he said it to.

I noted in that piece that Grassley, the committee chair, had promised to hold a vote if Clinton won.
www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-po...

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:14 UTC

Had Trump lost, McConnell's big bet wouldn't have paid off. He got the conference to commit to "let the voters decide," and Flake/Alexander/Corker/Graham/Collins/Murkowski weren't ready for four years of "actually uhhh best two out of three?"

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:12 UTC

I'm not naive, and Rs are more committed now to blocking every Dem judge than they used to be - the days of an R senate waving in Stephen Breyer are over. But Rs kicking and screaming and refusing to confirm any justice for four years wouldn't have been feasible.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:10 UTC

No offense, but the McConnell mythmaking has convinced a lot of people that a 52-48 R majority would have refused to seat a Dem justice for four years. I am very skeptical of this and did reporting around the time on it - there were enough Rs who were willing to confirm Garland if HRC won.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:05 UTC

I was doing reporting on this at the time. Had the election gone the same way but Clinton won, Rs would have had 52-48 majority. Some Rs (led by Cruz) wanted that majority to block a judicial vote for four years. But several were on record for a vote if Clinton won, enough to do it.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:02 UTC

No, open Scalia seat. Hillary wins, appoints her judge, 5-4 liberal court.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:02 UTC

If you want to turn SCOTUS into a weak House of Lords, that's its own thing. If you want a liberal SCOTUS you elect Dem presidents until Thomas and Alito die.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:01 UTC

Dems were one Comey letter away from a 5-4 liberal court!

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 18:32 UTC

The Gabbard paradox is that she's "telegenic" in the euphemistic meaning of the word - but is absolute death on the mic. Monotone, moralizing, repetitive. I remember watching the energy evaporate when she'd give speeches introducing Bernie in 2020.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 18:28 UTC

The iron law of anonymity - words said in public are less newsy than words said behind the veil!

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 18:19 UTC

Link to article here. I think a big tell was the Heritage call with reporters (my colleague was on it, I was in transit) where they hurriedly sketched out legal challenges in case the Dems switched out Biden.

www.vox.com/politics/358...

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:04 UTC

You're misremembering. Cite a source.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 15:44 UTC

I'm not bashing him! The opposite - I anticipated some eye-rolling at the platform he was getting, but he is very influential, people can't just ignore him.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 15:34 UTC

For example, they locked media out of most stuff at a key 2022 meeting, but the big headline that came out of it was a resolution saying Jan 6 was "legitimate political discourse." Media never saw the debate over it but had the story

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 15:31 UTC

One of those days where I'm getting a text every time I try to write a sentence. Not complaining! There are much harder jobs than reporting, I like doing it. But I never participate in those inbox/text shame games... you are simply dive-bombed all day by stuff you have to triage bc there's no story.

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 15:24 UTC

For the first time in decades, the RNC won't allow cameras/media into its platform meeting. Further evolution of the Trump-era RNC's aversion to the press - they see only downsides for transparency, though this hasn't prevented damaging stories when reporters dig in

www.semafor.com/article/07/0...

18 replies 69 reposts 212 likes

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 14:45 UTC

The robust conservative media infrastructure has retconned 2016: The scandal accusations against Trump were, in retrospect, attempts to steal the election of the legitimate president. The candidate who kept getting whacked by the FBI and hackers? Yeah she tried to rig it

2 replies 15 reposts 152 likes

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 14:43 UTC

He wasn't a median voter but I remember Doug Schoen, a Clinton hanger-on who hasn't done anything real in decades, going on Fox to say that the Comey letter clinched it: He could not possibly vote for Clinton. If she won nobody would remember the Comey letter! It didn't lead to shit!

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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 14:41 UTC

I keep thinking of the medium-info swing voter in 2016 who, at the last minute, decided not to go for Hillary bc she'd be consumed by scandals and investigations. The "actually it's defying the constitution and will of the voter to investigate the president" CW came too late!

4 replies 22 reposts 185 likes