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Jon Green

@jongreen.bsky.social

1020 followers 396 following 920 posts

Assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University
jgreen4919.github.io

Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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OP might not be the best example of this since the arguments for/against voting are pretty old. Just something I’ve been thinking about lately.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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Basically, contrarian take-mongers specialize in Having Ideas. Some of those ideas might be good, most will be bad, but the point is mostly just to produce them and see how they fare.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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A thing about The Discourse is that it incentivizes and may even benefit in the long run from counterintuitive/contrarian arguments — if ideas are evolutionary, you want some diversity in how they interact — but this also means that in the short run most of these individual arguments will be bad.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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Top-issue questions are useful, but they don't always capture the full range of how voters draw distinctions between candidates -- which may not be about policy at all.

Here, we asked about the most important difference between Biden and Trump:
www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/p...

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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need someone to write a short/medium-form take on the “market for zaggers” that folks like noah smith occupy

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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raises lots of questions already answered by the chyron

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Reposted by Jon Green

Stan Oklobdzija's avatar Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social
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Putting this here because it's like tweeting to the VIP section, but I'm gonna be on a search committee in the fall for a TT job in political science with a "data analytics" specialization. I'm especially keen to hear from PhDs who left for policy/industry that might want another go in academia.

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Reposted by Jon Green

Sen. Gogurt taking notes on a criminal conspiracy's avatar Sen. Gogurt taking notes on a criminal conspiracy @ugarles.bsky.social
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the conservative theory of law in one headline

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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eh without some good economic news he might lose fair and square

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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It’s weird because on the one hand we might not make it out of the group but on the other hand if the goal of this tournament was “show we can compete with top South American competition” this game might check that box?

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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Every sport except soccer has figured out “stop the clock when the play stops, start it when the play starts” and I don’t see why it feels the need to stand on tradition.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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I flipped it on just after seeing this and just in time to see Ronaldo miss the PK. I have never gone from 0 to 60 on a game in any sport more quickly.

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Reposted by Jon Green

Pwnallthethings's avatar Pwnallthethings @pwnallthethings.bsky.social
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a good way to alleviate concerns about Bidens debate performance / age *and* concerns about court overreach would be for Team Biden to schedule a short TV speech on it and give a firebrand performance about what he intends to do about it just sayin

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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“Mbappe iso” is, technically, a play

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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today would be a good day to hear a vigorous rejection of the idea that the president is above the law from the current president of the United States

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Reposted by Jon Green

Max Kennerly's avatar Max Kennerly @maxkennerly.bsky.social
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The GOP SCOTUS ruling on Presidential immunity, summed up.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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hate to be that guy but yeah try imagining how ~The Founders~ would feel about “the president can’t be charged for crimes committed as president”

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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Your explanation for how your preferred replacement candidate gets from your imagination to the White House needs to be better than “everyone will read my column and be persuaded”

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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It’s been really remarkable how incurious a lot of the Whitmer/Newsom/[someone other than Harris] takes have been regarding things like “what are the mechanics of nominating X?” or “does Y inherit Biden’s war chest?” from people ostensibly paid to be savvy enough to know the answers

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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“but the right wing will develop a conspiracy theory about it” can be said of literally any scenario here, including ones where nothing changes. really shouldn’t weigh into the decision either way

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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It’s like introducing a four point shot in basketball but saying that only teams that are trailing by less than ten points in the last three minutes of a half are allowed to shoot them bsky.app/profile/jong...

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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I think the DRS rules are silly. The goal is to go around the track as fast as possible. The car has a feature that makes it go faster. But you’re only allowed to use the feature in specific places on the track under specific circumstances.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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“Maximize your reading potential by putting a hard ceiling on it.”

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Reposted by Jon Green

Cooper Lund's avatar Cooper Lund @cooperlund.bsky.social
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All of the Times coverage for the last decade seems to rest on the assumption that there is a reasonable half of the country that must be talked down to from on high and an unreasonable half that must be studied intensely because they won’t let the Times talk down to them

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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oh god I had those separated in my mind for some reason

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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the Cain ad that ended with this campaign manager taking a huge drag of a cigarette

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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11 dimensional chess: perform so badly at the debate you get some undecided voters to for the first time seriously consider the possibility that Trump could win

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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also reasonable to believe that running the country and beating Trump require different skill sets

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Dan Nexon's avatar Dan Nexon @dhnexon.bsky.social
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Israel under Netanyahu.

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Reposted by Jon Green

Ian Boudreau's avatar Ian Boudreau @iboudreau.bsky.social
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Just a really strange way to win something that is called a debate

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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saw one saying "LETS GET READY TO MUMBLE" which, lol

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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Debates usually don't matter because it's the media coverage that matters and the media coverage usually features both sides declaring victory. This time there's a clear consensus -- including among elite Democrats -- that Biden lost in ways that confirm Republicans' prevailing narrative about him.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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It's true that the standard poli sci take is that debates don't move votes, but I'm not sure the reasons why debates usually don't matter apply here. Either way, it's an empirical question and we'll know in a few days.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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I’ve got intro *and* campaigns and elections lol

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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this was the moment I turned it off, fwiw

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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Especially if they coalesce in a way that supports an existing narrative that one campaign is pushing and the other is hoping to rebut!

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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That and a solid vindication of parliamentary systems with strong parties

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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There might be more conversation about Biden dropping out tomorrow than there was yesterday, but the politics of it don’t change. There is no timeline where everyone in the Democratic Party wakes up one morning and agrees to the same alternative candidate who isn’t Kamala Harris.

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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Like I think if you pulled Dana Bash aside and said “hey by the way Trump was literally impeached for trying to do a quid pro quo with Ukraine” she’d go “oh wow that DID happen didn’t it?”

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Jon Green's avatar Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social
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I think it is legitimately difficult for a human being — even a professional news anchor or political opponent — to keep all of the individually disqualifying things Trump did during his first term straight

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