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Dan Nexon@dhnexon.bsky.social |
2110 followers 1144 following 1316 posts
"'A man without a plan is not a man.' Nietzsche."
Professor in the Department of Government and SFS @ Georgetown.
I study international order, power politics, & empires.
dhnexon.net | www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com | duckofminerva.com |
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Well the good news is that even if it’s true they’re the least likely to turn out. It’s weird getting used to a world where 1) education sorting & 2) mobilization among black voters has flipped old understandings of voting propensity.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Jeff Lazarus
@jlazarus.bsky.social
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I am literally a professional politics-knower and I can confirm that our ability to predict what will happen next is literally never as good as pundits like to pretend it is. As I tell my grad students, social science doesn't do point predictions.
2 replies 12 reposts 51 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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In many cases they don’t even *know* what Trump did during his presidency or what he plans to do. The Ds need to educate voters in a way that they’re just not used to, and may need to use messaging techniques that differ from didactic ads. 3/3
2 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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They’re nostalgic for life pre-COVID, and think Trump will bring it back. They also tend to have simplistic views of what POTUS does, the importance of “strength” as they understand it, etc. 2/3
2 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Yes. If gels with raft of evidence that Trump is very strong with low-propensity voters who barely follow politics, and stronger among young voters who weren’t adults during his presidency. 1/3
2 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Luke’s American Revolution
@lfschleusener.bsky.social
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Never forget
2 replies 6 reposts 21 likes
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Parker Molloy
@parkermolloy.com
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I want a Battle Royale where the horserace journalists all have to fight each other, tbh
8 replies 14 reposts 121 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Meanwhile… www.theguardian.com/us-news/arti...
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis
@kendrawrites.bsky.social
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oh. another story that journalism actually does make enough money but not in the right way so it looks like its losing money. WaPo edition.
6 replies 56 reposts 160 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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50% OF DEI IS DIVERSION FOR COMPLAINTS AWAY FROM LITIGATION AND INTO NON-ADVERSARIAL DISPUTE RESOLUTION. But a lot of DEI offices seem to be broken in ways designed to feed the far-right assault.
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Seriously?
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Obligatory comment about how he was hoodwinked by pseudo-historical work “showing” that the 2nd Amendment protected an individual right to bear arms.
1 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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i think akhil amar reed captures something very important, which is that the roberts court rewrote article ii, which explicitly states that a president can be held criminally liable after impeachment (and which has long been understood to mean that he can be held liable after leaving office)
13 replies 230 reposts 732 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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I think this is satire gone horribly wrong?
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Correct. It may or may not be wise for Biden to withdraw. But for the record, hypothetical match-ups are not good evidence of how well different candidates will actually perform. Popularity can change a lot in either direction when someone becomes a candidate for president.
3 replies 6 reposts 51 likes
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Brooke Binkowski
@brooklynmarie.bsky.social
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As in Mellon-Scaife, major founders of the Tanton-Heritage networks
5 replies 9 reposts 38 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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I want to just say we’re going to expand the Court because these people are an existential threat to the rule of law.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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When you read Barrett’s concurrence you get the sense that she didn’t get the memo: she thinks the Court is actually trying to lay out durable “principles” (however twisted) rather than just help the GOP.
1 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Subaru Baja blast: the falafel lobbyist
@coolranch4lyfe.bsky.social
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The extremist duality of man
1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Reminder that even if Democrats drag Biden or someone else over the finish line, the threats to democracy will still remain. One party winning every time is not a plan (nor a democracy). And the president will still have the power to commit crimes with impunity even if the next one doesn't use it.
6 replies 23 reposts 80 likes
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Jennifer Sessions
@laprofmme.bsky.social
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NYT Spelling Bee once again showing its ignorance/disdain of the domestic arts and crafts. COLORWORK is absolutely a word, Sam, as any knitter will tell you
0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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One thing you can't say about the 6 justice majority is that they can't imagine or think a hypothetical parade of horribles won't happen. That's not this case. The wolf is at the door. The litigant in this case is the person who already was president, attempted a coup and is a career criminal.
4 replies 11 reposts 48 likes
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Bennett Gilbert
@bennettgilbert.bsky.social
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SCOTUS has put the entire government into an impossible position.
1 replies 4 reposts 14 likes
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Alex Cruikshanks
@alexsaysstuff.bsky.social
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Every day proves Thaddeus Stevens right: there should've been big Nuremberg-style public trials of leading Confederates, accompanied by seizures of the assets of all pro-Confederate large landowners and businessmen, which should then have been distributed to freed slaves as compensation.
23 replies 177 reposts 763 likes
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More Microplastic Than Man
@monsterisland.bsky.social
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2 replies 93 reposts 440 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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This means it’s on us. But electing Ds buys us more time, and it puts in place politicians who we can pressure.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Had this convo on Bluesky yesterday. The claim that the US isn’t a true democracy isn’t wrong, and it’s appropriate in a lot of policy fights. But it slides into smug, ignorant privilege all too easily.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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The Democrats failed across the board when it came to protecting democracy in 2021-2022. Even if they’d had another two seats, and Sinema and Manchin had not been veto points, it would’ve been tough. Biden himself was lukewarm, at best, on SCOTUS reform and limiting the filibuster.
2 replies 2 reposts 9 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Years ago, someone on Twitter wrote that ‘your democracy is over already; you just don’t know it yet.’ Liberal democracy cannot survive in a two-party system where only one side is committed to it.
3 replies 6 reposts 20 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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i was just going to make a post about this. if trump decides you are an enemy of the state or a “threat to national security” and has you deported, citizenship or not, there’s nothing you can do to get home. he has full legal power to render you stateless.
25 replies 341 reposts 1037 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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I dunno.
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David Noll
@david.noll.org
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[stares]
5 replies 6 reposts 28 likes
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Aaron Rupar
@atrupar.bsky.social
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"Amidst all the tearing of garments and vultures circling, the fact is that we’re still pretty much where we were pre-debate. There are two questions: Is Biden fit to serve? And, would Democrats benefit by forcing him off the ticket? The answers remain 'he is' and 'probably not.'"
16 replies 54 reposts 190 likes
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C. Robert Cargill
@crobertcargill.bsky.social
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Got a lot of Brit friends over here on Bluesky, so to all of you, I wish you an awesome and patriotic 4th of July! Send those Tories packing tomorrow and take your country back. Looking forward to returning to a kingdom that has returned to sanity.
10 replies 19 reposts 276 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Gawd, this could put him over the top in the Maryland Senate race. Which would not be good.
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Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis
@kendrawrites.bsky.social
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IDK kind of feels like we should be paying more attention to a prominent conservative think tank saying we're in the midst of a second american revolution that will remain bloodless as long as long as the left lets it be, then whether or not Biden should step down.
11 replies 150 reposts 474 likes
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Josh Chafetz
@joshchafetz.bsky.social
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1/ I'm agnostic as to whether Biden should withdraw from the race. It's a genuinely tough question IMO. But I have clarity on one thing: He should absolutely not step down as president. If Harris becomes President, the Vice Presidency is empty. Under the 25th Amendment ...
14 replies 92 reposts 379 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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😔
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Chuck Tryon
@chutry.bsky.social
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I did this in 2017. It comes in super handy.
0 replies 5 reposts 15 likes
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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What Paul said. I’d crawl over molten lava to vote for Biden against Trump, and we’ll do the standard GOTV stuff we do every cycle. I’ve also donated to the campaign, including a tranche after the debate.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Has Charlie Baker said strong anti-Trump stuff? I think mostly want someone who is pro-democracy and doesn’t have any political ambitions. So someone who has retired, but quietly.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Of course I’m sure what he “really means” is as long as leftists don’t use violence. Which is also the justification they’ve been using to talk themselves into preemptive use of force.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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“Unfolding”? It was a joke. But I mean what I said, that’s probably the single best argument against having this discussion.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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What’s the evidence that this kind of discussion “demoralizes” people?
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Hell, if a national unity *ticket* helps keep Trump out of office, it’s worth considering. (Kerry supposedly asked McCain to be his VP, but McCain wanted to be POTUS and knew it’d kill his chances.)
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Now *that’s* a rock solid argument against it. It’s also a rock solid argument against 99.99999% of posting here 😃
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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The Dems are in disarray and whether or not we talk about options on Bluesky has zero effect on that.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Something like that, yeah.
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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Forget Romney. Find someone who hasn’t taken a public position on Trump and isn’t currently in office.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes