Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar

Obi-Wine Kenobi

@obiwinekenobi.bsky.social

740 followers 1039 following 146 posts

Cutting way back on social media. Wine, natsec, financial crimes, biglaw, crankiness. Princeton Law grad. Not born and raised in South Detroit bc THAT'S CANADA.

Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I wish he’d been pushed into stepping aside before the primaries, tbh. But it didn’t happen, and here we are. My focus is the best realistic path from here to Not Trump. My problem with “get rid of Biden, then it’s Harris” is less Harris than the fact there’s a whole messy fight in the middle.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Also pretty disappointed in Dreyer’s “I only want applause, not people who know the rules!”, but nothing requires him to care.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Sure, she might win! But it’s a process, and she might lose, and there’s no time to sort it out in any sensible way. I’m really not arguing for anyone, just against 1. blow it up 2. ???? 3. great new candidate & campaign by Aug. 7 4. Trump loses. This would have been a good discussion a year ago.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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tl;dr: If Biden withdraws Harris does not automatically become the nominee. It’s open season. She could win, or she could lose, but she starts with zero delegates.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Not for the ticket. The delegates would still vote, and the question is what your local drain commissioner (and about 5000 people around the country like her) think. By the way, it has to be final by August 7 or they start missing ballots. By the way, there’s no process for them to meet & decide.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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If there were Legos in dicks Pfizer’s stock price would be down.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I’m not trying to dunk on you, but that’s in fact not true. Biden picks his running mate, which doesn’t have to be her, if he’s nominated. Mike Pence will not be Trump’s running mate. Had Bernie beaten Biden, she wouldn’t take over. She hasn’t been elected to anything for 2024.

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Gerry Doyle's avatar Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social
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in all seriousness it is, uh, interesting how few (any?) columns we have seen demanding that trump step back from the nomination he was convicted of felonies just weeks ago

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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No, he’s not at all stupid. I went to law school with him. That’s worse.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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If you support someone else, totally fine. (I did not vote for Biden in the 2020 primary.) But the time for that was a year ago. The election happened, and you didn’t do anything. Now it’s your worst old crazy uncle v the kindly uncle who needs a couple prompts.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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“Sure, the bitter old KKK guy across the street has been batshit for years, but now Grandpa might be slipping too! Who do I love?!?” “The primary election came out wrong! Let’s have a coup!” What the fuck is wrong with you people?

2 replies 1 reposts 9 likes

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Kevin Collins's avatar Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social
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The media, and I guess political scientists now, need to avoid the impulse to give Trump’s indefensible behavior a pass because he has been behaving indefensibly for a long time now

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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It’s not dumb, but it’s also just not the case that the interplay of Art II, the 12th Amdt, & the 22d Amdt is clear, so it goes to the Supreme Court, and if they say no it goes back to the states to see whether “Biden/Obama” ballots are valid, then that goes back to the S Ct, & none of this works.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Wasn’t a criticism. I just don’t understand the people who get all worked up over it one way or the other.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I’ve met him. He’s smart as hell and very deep on policy. I have him as veep because I agree he needs more time in bigger jobs, but he’s able.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Two declining candidates. One is a literally stupid, immoral narcissist who will hand over the keys to utter nutjobs. The other is a fundamentally decent regular guy who will do regular things without a lot of imagination.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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LinkedIn is a phone directory where you can see who has changed jobs and maybe where people are speaking/writing. It ain’t deep.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I will only accept an Emperor. Perhaps Overlord.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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If I could just pick a ticket, I’d pick Whitmer/Buttigieg. I didn’t even vote for Biden in the last primary. But either Biden or Trump is going to be President in January, and that isn’t in the same time zone as a close call.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Fully half of them go to college and major in jobs (teacher, nurse, engineer, etc.). And now me, and college is clearly on the table; maybe if I work hard I can study more than 4 years. Point’s not “yay me.” Point’s “America is for ‘give me a shot, and more importantly give my kid a shot.’”

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I am a standard issue White Guy American Dream (tm) doll. My great-greats were uneducated peasants on a midnight boat to anywhere. My greats worked the farm. My grands moved for factory jobs. (Nobody has a high school diploma yet.) My parents’ generation finishes high school!

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Shout out for using “comprise” correctly, which an LLM very likely would not (GIGO).

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Wow that’s rough “Here’s a hypothetical of what AI can do!” [shits pants] “Are you too dumb to see that I only hypothetically shat my pants? The point was what I could REALLY do!”

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I got around to hanging the office art after an embarrassingly long time, and I have to say it makes a meaningful emotional difference (both having it on the walls and not having it on the floor).

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Joey Fishkin's avatar Joey Fishkin @fishkin.bsky.social
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Hi everyone, just joined here literally 30 seconds ago. Tried Threads, now I'm here. I'm a law prof at UCLA.

Here's a first post: Can you distinguish real Supreme Court justices doing “history-and-tradition” from parody?

It's time for a Rahimi pop quiz!

👀

balkin.blogspot.com/2024/06/its-...

10 replies 8 reposts 53 likes

Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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But that’s not the best part. Told one of the teams we had an unfair advantage in an old man sport. My guy snorted and said, “pretty sure I’m about as old as you are.” “Really?” “Oh yeah. I’m FORTY.”

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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We smoked the field. Honestly, not because we’re so good, but because we were in the zone.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Using the word praxis unironically praxisn’t.

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bobby (frociaggine) 's avatar bobby (frociaggine) @bobbylewis.bsky.social
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the wikipedia page for the drake-kendrick beef uses the same table that you find on articles about actual wars

53 replies 510 reposts 2140 likes

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I never underestimate the ability of a man to be confidently wrong.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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No, that’s Sox. You’re thinking of one of the Chicago baseball teams.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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I’m going to ask a stupid question because I’m genuinely curious. Weren’t there a lot of people who thought there was something attractive about him? Never really thought about it much and certainly not holding him up as a model, but I had an impression that was a thing. But maybe not!

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Talk to someone who got shingles. Nightmare fuel.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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That’s six. You’re thinking of a New York-based department store.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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It’s two district courts on PI, the opinions are weak, and the constitutional analysis was an alternative to stronger statutory grounds that are now gone. Not exactly a granite edifice of precedent. Not saying there’s no case, but it’s far from settled, especially if they bring CFIUS into it.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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2016 Ducru. TF was I thinking? That “red wine and coffee are good for you, actually” stuff had better check out.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Sorry, everybody. I’m a Wine Guy and I’m behind on unpacking boxes, so I really have to be underground in air conditioning right now.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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Morally much better, to be fair, but “we only made people THINK we’re irresponsible and unhinged” is still tactically stupid.

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Obi-Wine Kenobi's avatar Obi-Wine Kenobi @obiwinekenobi.bsky.social
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“All publicity is good publicity, even the kind that makes us look totally irrational and destructive, because everybody supports causes that have fanatics.”

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