Meanwhile in France, polling models that take account of the dropouts post-first round suggest a completely different result than the as many as 300 RN seats that were predicted after the first round. Huge.
*FRANCE'S LE PEN GROUP WOULD GET 190-220 SEATS: BFM CITES HARRIS
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he asked people around joe to make sure joe didn’t “embarrass himself” in the 2020 primaries, and then joe won the white house. like my man your brain isn’t good electorally when you ain’t on the ballot
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i’m generally more sympathetic to obama than most lefties but i honestly don’t care what he thinks. there’s nothing insightful to it. if he’d told joe to run in 16 and told hillary to fuck off, trump would be pitching Season Whatever of “the apprentice”
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you joke but the literal minute my hire was announced there were people at other publications screaming on the internet that i was an unqualified diversity hire
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i would’ve legitimately paid money to have seen andrew sullivan’s face
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amazing
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fucking idiot
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“how does this relate to an average person?” being a question that makes neera have to double back is extremely funny ngl
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yeah i didn’t watch live but went back and watched, and my reaction was “substantively he was overall better but on the optics this was a train wreck”
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is it just a senate confirmation? (honestly don’t know)
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yup! multiple of those. a few hung around and said essentially that he got better but that it was still extremely bad
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and that was in real time, not under the influence of the press
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not one of them changed their vote though to be clear. but more than one did say “he needs to step aside, he can’t do it”
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pretty much all of mine who watched were freaked out
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the dc dem meltdown has obviously made it worse but i don’t think it’s unreasonable that there are lots of folks here, who aren’t bret stephens, who watched that debate and are freaked out
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i think the freakout from regular people - not the punditocracy largely, which was clearly read to pounce - is about how the voters who’ll decide the election perceive him, not about how *we* do
it’s essentially a keynesian beauty pageant from hell
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many, so many bleak jokes about the judiciary here
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unless and until a replacement is named to vp although tiebreaks aren’t going to be significant 4 months from an election imo
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i would guess the latter but it’s an easy sell on the former i suspect
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i think it probably has too but i think the debate may have changed the race by hardening opinions some as well
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kind of side note to this. supposing for the sake of argument that the best bet is harris. an obvious question that will be raised: if joe can’t finish the campaign then why is he still president?
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The opinion has this snide tone that’s basically like “calm down shitheads, this is the minimum possible intervention on our part to protect the poor widdle pwesident from being prosecuted when he leaves office” and it’s really, really fucking not.
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bird they make bad sandwiches though. bacon is a topping, not a main!
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finally rishi gets on message
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You can have concerns about Biden's age, but still be absolutely appalled about editorial choices that convey the issue as more important than the Supreme Court offering a pre-emptive thumbs up to a criminal presidency
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Reform.
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i was just going to make a post about this. if trump decides you are an enemy of the state or a “threat to national security” and has you deported, citizenship or not, there’s nothing you can do to get home. he has full legal power to render you stateless.
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constitutional law is just an endless stream of guys going “dogs can’t play basketball”
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constitutional lawyers use your fucking brain challenge www.politico.com/news/2024/07...
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A short guide to what to wait up for, or when to go to bed and wake up, on election night:
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their estimate of the labour share nationally looks a few points higher than the average, and the trendlines seem to suggest the race is closing a bit in the last week
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ah okay, one of those mrp models they’re always talking about
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no, last i looked they had labour up 20 but dont recall a seat count?
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like double digit win but not the 20-point wipeout people are expecting
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guessing labour wins a majority but tories probably overperform. not sure how it shakes out with fptp and reform polling so high though
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He's right. They're stealing the country from us and ending democracy. "Bloodless if the left allows it to be" is a threat to kill anyone who fights back
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a lot of people seem to think my annoyance here is with jokes about political violence, which i’m on record saying are fine and cathartic. my annoyance is with people who disengage with effective forms of politics and replace them with fantasies
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So much stuff on this zone that I couldn't fit in my column this week, which I imagine I will do over the summer lull when I look back on Rishi Sunak and race.
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herbie did not sacrifice himself to win the el dorado for this
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finally a real poll
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