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Silberdachs

@silberdachs.bsky.social

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Like, if you conducted a survey but only talked to homeowners, or only talked to people with graduate degrees, is that really a representative sample of the population? The arg that "People who answer unknown numbers" is no longer representative seems plausible to me. I just don't know.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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"Polls no longer capture a representative sample of the population" seems more likely to me than "People are lying to the pollsters." I have no idea whether it's TRUE that polls no longer capture a representative sample, but it seems plausible.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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My understanding is that polling averages tell you much more than any one poll - even if polling is good and reliable. And the polling averages do not show "Mondale level annihilation".

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I've been really taken aback by the amount of absolute certainty I've seen. "Joe Biden CANNOT win the election", brought to you by people who were certain he couldn't win the primary, or that Trump couldn't win in 2016, or that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, or that Ukraine wouldn't survive, or....

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I think about the science articles written every so often about how physicists made a particle travel faster than light. The physicist always says "Either we discovered something that totally overturns a century of physics knowledge, or our math was off." And it's almost always the latter.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I sincerely do not want to be a "Polls are fake" guy without some sort of evidence against their reliability: don't want to just go "Hm, that can't be true, no". So I'm wondering: what IS the evidence that polling is unreliable, besides it just not feeling right?

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Watching the Euros and pretending it's EU4 >>>>>

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Nothing but respect for MY MVP. Stop the count.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Can't understand LOTR without understanding that it is an exploration of how mortality is what makes us human, and yet celebrating humanity in spite of our limits and flaws! It's many other things, but that's the core of it, I think.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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They did carry out major deportations, and these deportations were hugely destructive, but the real thing these interests wanted was a way to a) get their seasonal workforce out of the country on demand, and b) make sure that everyone was too scared to complain, unionize, or leave for better pay.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Almost 100% sure it'd be the latter. In the 20s and 30s, ag interests agitating to create the Border Patrol (namely citrus and cotton planters) didn't want their workforce deported, they wanted their workforce to be THREATENED with deportation to keep them in line.

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Michael Tae Sweeney's avatar Michael Tae Sweeney @mtsw.bsky.social
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Communications tip: don't say "Project 2025" say "Trump's Project 2025." He's trying to run away from it, tie it to his neck like an anchor by making the words "Project 2025" naturally follow the word "Trump" in people's heads.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I get this gut feeling too but don’t trust it. I know response rates are in the toilet, but what really *is* the evidence that polling is badly broken?

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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To be clear, I myself am very much part of "a lot of us".

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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The older I get, the more I realize how important humility is as a virtue. A lot of us were wrong about 2016, the 2020 primary, the 2020 general, the 2022 midterms, and a great many other things. It's possible we do not know as much as we think!

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I'm one of them! Just.... think it possible you might be mistaken.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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A lot of absolute certainty going around from people who got the 2016 general, 2020 primary, 2020 general, and 2022 midterm all wrong.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Been beseeching a lot of people lately, in the bowels of Christ, to think it possible they might be mistaken.

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Emissary Of Night | ليلى's avatar Emissary Of Night | ليلى @diplomatofnight.com
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Bucking pressure from the Biden administration, the new Labour government of the United Kingdom is expected to drop its objections to ICC arrest warrants being issued against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant. The UK will also contemplate whether to restore funding to UNRWA in the near future.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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*Defector, not Deadspin. Old habits etc

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Deadspin’s sports articles are good but not really a replacement for the Athletic imo. The Athletic has reporters with beats and sources, and Deadspin publishes (mostly good) takes on sports. Janus is right that their non-sports takes tend towards the contrarian, though.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Immigration lawyer here. It is *really* hard to overstate it.

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Daniel Gilmore's avatar Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social
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Watch this thread of clips from Bidens WI rally (compiled by @atrupar.bsky.social) & note that Biden is not just cogent, but forceful, here. This is the sort of "evidence" that many ppl, mostly in news media, claim that they want for reassurance that they continue to ignore.

x.com/atrupar/stat...

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Amanda Smith's avatar Amanda Smith @amandasmith.bsky.social
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If you haven’t called your senators and congressperson, take five minutes to ask them to support Liz Warren & AOC’s calls for impeachment of justices and expansion of the court.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Lao Peng You in the Ukrainian Village. Bungalow at Middlebrow in Logan Square Or, a bit pricier, Daisies or Andros Taverna in Logan Square.

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Tikkun Olamunist - ירמל גרױס's avatar Tikkun Olamunist - ירמל גרױס @tikkunolamunist.bsky.social
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POST: To be a socialist in the 21st century is to reckon with the horrors of 20th century socialism and still feel that there's a path forward that allows the human race to outgrow capitalism. Or to give a pass to those horrors in a glib and meaningless way.

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Moira Donegan's avatar Moira Donegan @moiradonegan.bsky.social
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Not to be corny but I do think the ongoing aspiration to make America a pluralist democracy of equals is righteous, beautiful, and worth honoring, even if it has more often been the struggle of minorities & dissenters than the policy of the government. 🇺🇸

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Setting aside any issues with polling in the scam call era, 2020 was the highest-turnout election since 1960. 4 points higher turnout than 2008. 7 points higher than 2016! A theory of the election based on a surge among people who skipped the most popular election in 60 years, seems... speculative!

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I mean, it's a lot of if's and assumptions, and I'm just a guy online. My opinion and $2.50 will get you a bus ticket.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Even a return to 2008 turnout would mean a 4-point drop in turnout among the voting-eligible population. A return to 2016 would be a 7-point drop. If Trump's success is strongest among people who didn't vote in 2020, then "Trump's support drops more than Biden's" seems more likely than vice versa.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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For me, the question is, do we expect 2024 to be higher or lower turnout than 2020, the highest-turnout election in 60 years? It's possible we see similar turnout levels! But I am assuming that with low voter enthusiasm and less voting-by-mail that we will not.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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The people I know in Arizona are working like hell to get this on the ballot, and get women out to vote for it. And my experience of Arizona was that, while evangelicalism and conservatism are big out there, "You can't fucking tell me what to do with my life" is even bigger. This will matter.

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Alex Cruikshanks's avatar Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social
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Every day proves Thaddeus Stevens right: there should've been big Nuremberg-style public trials of leading Confederates, accompanied by seizures of the assets of all pro-Confederate large landowners and businessmen, which should then have been distributed to freed slaves as compensation.

31 replies 316 reposts 1388 likes

Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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“I’m at the Western stop on the L.” “Which one?” “The Blue Line.” “Which one?”

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Plus, we know Biden can win, because he won.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I get that argument, but that's speculative. I think it assumes there would not be a hurricane of negative media coverage that got in the way of any message Harris tried to convey, and I think that assumption is very wrong.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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This is the thing! Any other candidate would get skewered just as savagely by the press, without an incumbency advantage, and after a chaotic PR disaster basically all but admitting that the party is lost. Biden stepping down is a terrible idea that, fortunately, will not happen.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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You are correct that the president has enormous parole powers, but the gap between parole and citizenship is significant.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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The president cannot unilaterally grant citizenship to all immigrants unless Congress substantially re-writes the Immigration and Nationality Act. The whole reason DACA is at risk is because right-wing courts are saying that the authority to grant legal status lies with Congress.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I'm not quite this optimistic - I think there is still a lot of inertia from older heads and reluctance from center-right factions of the party (Gottheimer, etc) - but even if it's not now, I think it's soon, and it's inevitable.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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Smarter people than myself have said it, but a second Trump presidency would look less like Franco’s Spain or Hitler’s Germany and more like “nationwide Jim Crow”. Which is not a relief.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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“Despair is for those who see the end beyond all doubt. We do not.” remains an absolute banger

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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The fear I wrestle with: whether Biden wins (as I suspect he will) or whether we get some unholy Trump autocracy, politics from here on out looks very different. I know we would still have politics under a dictatorship, but I don't know what they look like or how to navigate them. And that's scary.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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I am begging people, just once, to talk to people who actually exist in real life, and not assembled caricatures based on half-remembered posts that annoyed us.

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Silberdachs's avatar Silberdachs @silberdachs.bsky.social
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The prospect of a second Trump administration is terrifying to me as an immigration lawyer. Mostly because of what it would mean for my clients. But also, in the back of my mind, because it would turn my only marketable job skill into wet toilet paper.

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