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Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social |
What I’ll be looking for from the Conservatives tonight: 160-200 seats: a good night for the Tories; could be back after one term if things go badly for Labour 100-160: a bad night; three terms to rebuild Under 100: out for a very long time indeed Third party: gone for good
18 replies 19 reposts 118 likes
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Hughster
@hughster.bsky.social
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My cautious guess is that second bracket. I'd also be factoring in the possibility of a Hard/Far Right takeover of the party in that state such that it might not even be recognisable as the Tory Party by next election.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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déjà vu
@ka7ma.bsky.social
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old school think, people want results like yesterday these days
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Chris Weston
@chrisweston.bsky.social
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I think this was sound logic up until 2010. Using this logic there was no way Starmer was getting a majority this time. Lead a coalition, sure. But voters are more fickle than they were. Even at 140 seats the tories could bounce back.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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LaurenceM
@biglarry2k23.bsky.social
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The great unknown in any of this, is what will happen in the conflagration that will erupt next week. Sunak will resign for sure. Then the battles will begin. If the rump of the party heads extremist right - Braverman ? How can they rebuild on a base built from hate and conflict ?
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Mark Chadbourn
@chadbourn.bsky.social
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But it’s entirely possible with the voting demographic moving to the elderly that they may have already passed the point of being competitive, regardless of how much money and effort they throw at it. #UKGE2024
3 replies 0 reposts 43 likes
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Ann G
@anniemg.bsky.social
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Under 100 🤞😁🤞
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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KA SEMENOVA
@kasemenova.bsky.social
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When are the numbers going to start being reported? I’m in US, btw. I know there’s a media embargo but not details.
2 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Francis Gasparini
@francisgasparini.bsky.social
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I’m sure you’ve posted this before, but if you don’t mind sharing again-what’s a good place to follow results, especially for people in the U.S.?
3 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
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Sandra Pascoal-Lima
@sandrapl.bsky.social
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Here's hoping for the "third party" result.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Paul N
@paulnuk.bsky.social
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A friend said she's staying in to watch the season finale of The Tories, and I replied that I hope there isn't another season.
3 replies 2 reposts 17 likes
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Doc Sarah Lonsdale
@sarahjlonsdale.bsky.social
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Of these 3 scenarios do you have a hunch which is most likely? I can't believe it will be scenario 1, surely?
2 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Sequin World
@sequinworld.bsky.social
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3rd party please 👍 hopefully there's so few of them left the next Conservative Party Conference could be held in a phone box
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Ern400
@ern400.bsky.social
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Braverman is already encouraging the Party to move ever-more to the right, which may not be the winner she thinks it is. How does she account for the opinion polls and the connection with Starmer’s move towards the centre? With what she offers, I’m hoping for a wipeout.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Ludlow Mortimer
@ludlowmortimer.bsky.social
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It was said by many a commentator that Labour couldn't recover in one term from the 2019 debacle, but here we are ... Third party status means Farage (assuming Clacton) will get his wish. BTW, I saw first hand what happened in Canada in 1993.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Whispers
@daseinohnebier.bsky.social
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Not the Torygeddon I had hoped for. I wanted them bouncing high 90s and crushed
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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kenny brown
@kennybrown131.bsky.social
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Slightly disagree. 160+ is good. 2nd place gives them some hope for a quick return, they have the press on their side after all. 3rd place is a long way back, not fatal. Accepting Farage into the tent breaks the UK. All speculation. 8 more hours to wait!
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Russ Holmes
@rholmes.bsky.social
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Current betting odds are shortest (and shortening) for Libdems getting over 61 seats. Reminds me of 66 million years ago at the Yucatán Peninsula.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Keith Wilson 💭
@keithwilson.eu
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I don’t think the Tories will be gone for good if they win fewer than 100 seats. This is a reverse-UKIP effect. Provided the Tory+RefUK vote is comparable to Labour, which looks to be the case, there is always the chance that they’ll stage a comeback—or a merger.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes