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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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yup
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Dan Davies@dsquareddigest.bsky.social |
2180 followers 264 following 2331 posts
Malcolm Sparrow in the streets, Stafford Beer in the sheets. Once I wrote about fraud and its detection; currently writing about the industrialisation of decision making in general
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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yup
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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I came up with "contango is when the futures price is on the ceiling and backwardation is when the futures price is in the basement" as a joke for Joe Wiesenthal but it is now 💯 how I remember it
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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it is wireless and it is fireless
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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it's difficult because they don't want to input their personal details
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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... despite the fact that the actual view of pro-ceasefire, anti-arms sales, pro-ICC seems to be mainstream or even majority
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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there were bad actors around, but it looks like most of the Gaza Independents who actually got elected were fairly normie Labour types who had left the party? tbh the real scandal is the way this bloc has been completely abandoned by most "good" actors...
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Pavel
@spavel.bsky.social
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Remember how the "retail theft crime wave" disappeared as soon as companies had to do their annual reports? That's because it's illegal to lie to shareholders.
AI is booming (if you're a pleb) but if you have money - Goldman Sachs will be honest with you instead web.archive.org/web/20240629...
20 replies 732 reposts 1659 likes
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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also the locations. we have the terrible lesson of Ireland showing it's possible to have a construction bubble that nearly bankrupts the economy and still come out of it with housing shortage.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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the Conservative Party would be unbelievably stronger if the lobbying industry had been harshly regulated for the last two decades - rather than hanging round knifing each other, the cream of Tory youth would have gone into banking and coming back as experienced and rich fortysomethings.
1 replies 2 reposts 22 likes
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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the only people left in the conservative party are either very old or very odd, and there weren't many old people on the campaign
2 replies 5 reposts 33 likes
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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it was the first thing that came into his mind which didn't sound "too Indian" is quite likely the sad truth
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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this is now literally looking like the political equivalence of suicide by cop
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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I didn't have "AC Grayling caught in FBI sting" on my 2025 bingo card but maybe I should
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Tim Onion
@bencollins.bsky.social
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"The Bernie Bros and K-Hive appear to be forming an alliance," I say at the 4th of July cookout. An anvil falls out of the sky directly onto my person, killing me instantly. God appears through the clouds. "I did that," he says. Family and friends applaud politely.
38 replies 272 reposts 2172 likes
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Henry Farrell
@himself.bsky.social
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"these successful people almost all shared the same pathology. Except for one or two psychopaths, they all had imposter syndrome ... most of [Meehl's] recent patients had been academics, and he saw precisely what Sanford had seen." Recht on anxiety & overpublication www.argmin.net/p/youre-gonn...
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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"any time your vol position is costing you money, there's almost certainly something much more serious going on"
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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another in the series "songs my portfolio manager taught me"
open.substack.com/pub/backofmi...
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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you don't eat goat in places where you can raise sheep for the same reason you don't eat sheep in places where you can raise cows.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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a large part of it was despite Andrew Neil, more like. The specialist commentary was interesting, the gurning "oh god what nerds" asides and awful comedy segments unbearable.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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it must be kind of difficult to tick the boxes as the parole officer of a guy in the gangster rap game
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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not now they have ebikes surely?
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Andrew Heiss
@andrew.heiss.phd
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Now that I'm fully aware of the ironies behind (1) rating this book at a website like Goodreads, (2) maintaining an annual reading goal, and (3) posting about it to produce content on a social media network, I can give 5 of 5 stars to The Ordinal Society by Marion Fourcade and @kjhealy.bsky.social
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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The chairman of reinsurer Swiss Re said insurance premiums still aren't high enough to force a reckoning with #climaterisk
US home insurance premiums increased 33% over 2020-23
yet "homes are still being built in places they shouldn’t be"...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
0 replies 16 reposts 16 likes
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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or in the language of today's Twitter, MFers will do "oh, you favour restrictions on immigration and leaving the EU? that pales by comparison with my policy, investing in GP surgeries" and then not invest in GP surgeries.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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but this was all supply-push, not demand-pull. It was a substitute for listening to the working class, not the result of doing so. It's really childish the way people want to take Farage's self-publicity at face value.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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except that it's always going to go right, because there is a lot of truth to the jibe that parties of the sensible centre regard the far right as a passing irritation but the left as a potentially existential threat, and persist in this notion in the face of all evidence.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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and in many cases (particularly in the aftermath of 9/11) that rhetoric was put in place by parties of the sensible centre who didn't want anyone to understand the true cost of their wars.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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ok goodbye, there's just no excuse for that
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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during this period, Labour lost one-third of its vote (about 5 million voters), in absolute numbers, with that vote loss very much skewed to Northern, regional and poor constituencies. Whoever they thought they were listening to, it wasn't the voters who Farage later picked up.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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then, for the first time since the 1990s, a movement came along which spoke to them, told them that they could "take back control" of a system that had been ignoring them, and here we are now. Labour, PS, CDS and PSI all abandoned them; UKIP, FN, AfD and Lega picked up what was lying in the street
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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this is kind of my point though - I don't accept that the content of centre-right manifestoes and advertisments are evidence of what a previously centre-left electorate wanted. For all the period up to Brexit, these constituencies didn't vote for these policies; they just dropped out entirely
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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in 2010
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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hang on, are you talking about what populist and right-wing journalists wrote in their newspapers, or whether the government of the UK cared about regional policy?
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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2008? I'd put the start date in 2001, when the parties of the sensible centre began to build a consensus that a major world religion was a fifth column in society and that the human cost of their wars was an illegitimate economic migration.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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Np, that's not true. It took decades to build that consensus, while the centre left were all looking the other way
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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the established parties of the centre - and even the centre left - thought they saw a chance to make a cheap grab for votes while distancing from their real enemies on the left.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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if they had actually listened, they would not have concluded that this was what the people were asking for
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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the Tories are gone anyway. tactical voting in this election is likely to make the FPTP distortions worse rather than better, while increasing the likelihood that Reform becomes the biggest party on the right. this is an election in which tactical voting is a bad idea
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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I hope a protracted period of negotiations, I guess some idiot could start a civil war if they wanted one.
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Diane Coyle
@dianecoyle1859.bsky.social
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New (open access) article by me and a great crew of co-authors on the dismal productivity record of UK firms in manufacturing and ICT onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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the decline in competence and common sense isn't unrelated!
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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the big electoral movement has been losing about 15pp of turnout so I think it's not as unrelated as you might think from looking at party swings
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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I think there is a very definite relationship between that, and many of the other areas they lost.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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it's currently represented by George Galloway, so I think the flaw is in the detail rather than the structure
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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Labour put lots of money into places like Rochdale, but did it through a channel (the PFI) which was pretty explicitly meant to carry the message "you can have this but you don't own it because we don't trust you to manage it properly". how inexplicable that people weren't grateful.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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as the saying goes, you can't fatten a pig on market day. if you've spent the previous decade centralising power in SW1 and ignoring post-industrial regions, you can't act surprised that people's information comes only from repeating talking points of the media that they consume
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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although realistically, the Unionist community is still going to be there and will still be capable of making the territory basically ungovernable if they don't consent, so 50%+1 is more of a formal than practical criterion.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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the "basket of deplorables" speech and "they get bitter and cling to their guns and religion" - these are both seen as too charitable today, the mainstream progressive position seemingly being "why don't these people get on with dying of despair"
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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it is strange that lots of people who presumably voted for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would now, seemingly, repudiate their utterly mainstream analysis of the basis of right-wing populism in America as idiotic and probably racist.
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Dan Davies
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social
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it reflects the fact that you can't have normal politics in an abnormal society. even today, changing the electoral system doesn't seem to do much in Northern Ireland.
2 replies 1 reposts 1 likes