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Jacob Montgomery@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social |
1003 followers 761 following 446 posts
Political (Data) Scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. Data science, social media, American politics, and grumpy Bayesian. If you're wondering if I'm joking, I am.
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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@brendannyhan.bsky.social Proposed like a whole market scheme for reviews that I would still love to see someone try.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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one of the most dishonest things people in my profession do is pretend as if “the story” and “the narrative” isn’t something they have direct control over
42 replies 431 reposts 2054 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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New York Times, July 5, 2025: “Biden’s Stumbles And Gaffes During His Criticism of President Trump’s Internment Camps Vindicate Age Concerns”
14 replies 180 reposts 861 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Soon to be followed by god knows what results in France and the US. 2024 is just a wild ride in democratic politics.
1 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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Yesterday, I shared this same Canada Day thread on Bluesky, Threads, and X. Here's what I found. 🧵
19 replies 407 reposts 986 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Both of these things can be true at the same time: 1) “It would be preferable to not have an octogenarian as our president.” 2) “Changing nominees 120 days before an election is a recipe for massive defeat and Trump victory.” Believing one does not imply you deny the other.
0 replies 2 reposts 9 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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john roberts currently neck and neck with roger taney for worst chief justice in american history
69 replies 303 reposts 2206 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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So have we officially entered into a constitutional crisis?
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Democracy is on the ballot.
0 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Neil Lewis, Jr.
@neillewisjr.bsky.social
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Working today.
4 replies 21 reposts 157 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Fair. It’s just one case people.
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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I would feel better if those who are supposed to be political experts didn't beclown themselves this way. The choice is: 1) Biden 2) Harris 3) Total chaos / royal rumble, serious risk of coalition crack up. Leading an anti-fascist coalition is very hard. There is no Aaron Sorkin solution here.
34 replies 93 reposts 532 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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127 days till Election Day, but I still we are all still engaged in Aaron Sorkin fanfic around here.
0 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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I do think that modern politics is missing a lot of the community-building that old school parties used to do. Like when do we do our torch-lit parades? When I worked for a year on campaigns in Appalachia there were a lot more picnics.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Yes! We could all join together to create a set of shared policy goals and then work together to advance candidates who will pursue those goals in office in opposition to elected officials who we all oppose. Maybe give ourselves a common nickname or something to help voters keep it straight.
2 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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There just seems to be a mental model out there that if you are just *angry* often enough on the Internets, then you can achieve real social change without all the difficult work of building and mobilizing a coalition of diverse interests to pursue common goals.
0 replies 2 reposts 15 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Seriously y'all calm down. A June debate? You think there are a bunch of undecided voters watching a June debate? Debates serve a purpose in democracy, and we should have more of them. But AFAIK there is zero convincing evidence that US presidential debates affect outcomes even in October.
2 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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Ali Messer
@freereed59.net
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0 replies 3 reposts 2 likes
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rahaeli
@rahaeli.bsky.social
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I keep seeing people today say "these labeler implosions just prove that Bluesky needs a T&S team". Folks: Bluesky has a T&S team. @aaron.bsky.team runs it. They've gotten incredibly fast at handling issues. I've seen sub-5-minute responses on some of my reports.
8 replies 112 reposts 548 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Amen
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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This dude is explaining the Haitian revolution while I’m doing dishes!
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Carl T. Bergstrom
@carlbergstrom.com
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With data, same. (That's kind of the whole point of my book with Jevin West)
3 replies 4 reposts 56 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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So far just revolutions. But I can feel that this is where I belong.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Have found my new home in history podcasts.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Full thread by Messi in the other place:
twitter.com/l33_messi/st...
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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New pre-print out with Messi Lee and Calvin Lai! In it, we find that Vision Language Models like GPT-4V, Large Language Models that can process images, show greater stereotyping in response to more prototypically Black and Feminine faces.
t.co/CJltmcWcr6
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Is there a 2024 PaCSS conference in Philly? Wasn't sure if we could still sign up for it.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Not my area, but this has to be at least in the top ten largest wastes of R&D money …. ever?
1 replies 0 reposts 31 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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This is five times the annual budget of the NSF. Its like funding the Manhattan project and ending up with …. nothing.
19 replies 158 reposts 593 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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I watched it with my brother the night before we went on a week long camping trip.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Ironically, having the courts engaging in sweeping policy making in the context of a mostly immobilized legislative branch is in every way against the original intent of the framers of the constitution.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Berna Devezer
@devezer.bsky.social
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Most hypotheses in social sciences do not qualify as scientific or statistical hypotheses of import. We pretend to do confirmatory research in early stages of scientific inquiry skipping exploration & theoretical and measurement refinement. NHST does not magically turn speculation into discovery.
1 replies 5 reposts 24 likes
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Casey Newton
@caseynewton.bsky.social
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NEWS: After sustained attacks from House Republicans, the Stanford Internet Observatory is being dismantled. A huge blow to academic freedom and our ability to understand platforms and influence operations www.platformer.news/stanford-int...
43 replies 569 reposts 987 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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I think posts can still receive likes that are visible, but you can't see who did the liking.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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lol no. Although in part because the med school (and other) faculty are on 12-month contracts and so many admins actually just think this entire concept of 9-month contracts is fictional.
2 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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X just made likes private apparently? So anyways ... hope no one had entire research protocols built around that or anything.
3 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Just saying … there seem to be a lot of boomers with a lot of time to watch cable news and yell at the TV.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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When you get emails about research projects you stopped thinking about 10 years ago ...
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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You might not know this, but we are actually a republic not a democracy.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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There is something deeply satisfying about hearing a crowd of people laugh at 300-year-old jokes.
Shakespeare in Forest Park is one of my most favorite Saint Louis traditions.
stlshakes.org/production/a...
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Achim Zeileis
@zeileis.org
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PSA: All #rstats package on #cran will get an official DOI!
This will facilitate bibliometrics and giving credit to R package authors.
Registering all 20,000+ packages will still take a few more days. But the first couple of thousand are already live. Example:
10 replies 115 reposts 224 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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"Historians widely agree that at this point, the collaboration got seriously sidetracked as his co-author made 458 edits to remove the passive voice."
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Slack workspaces? I really hope it isn’t Twitter exchanges.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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15,000! That’s just one month of emails for most of us. (It is fun to think about what future scholars will release as their “papers.” Like what are you going to do with the 20,000 emails we send a year explaining when the midterm is and apologizing for our late journal reviews.)
2 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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What’s going to happen on campuses if the war in Gaza is still rolling when the students return?
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Excited to see this new paper with Messi Lee and and Calvin Lai being presented at ACM FAccT.
"Large Language Models Portray Socially Subordinate Groups as More Homogeneous, Consistent with a Bias Observed in Humans"
dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/...
0 replies 1 reposts 0 likes
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Kevin M. Kruse
@kevinmkruse.bsky.social
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When we lived in Jersey City, there were dog owners who would say “oh but he’s a good dog!” Oh then the law doesn’t apply here! I’ll let my toddler know if she ever stops screaming.
19 replies 7 reposts 231 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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My immediate memory was sitting in my dorm room listening to tracks to pick out just the right lyrics to put up as my AIM status.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
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Good morning fellow xenials. Here’s a reminder that we are super duper old.
www.npr.org/2024/06/02/n...
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes