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Alexander Clarkson@aphclarkson.bsky.social |
3655 followers 576 following 875 posts
Lecturer for German and European Studies at King's College London. Opinions my own. RT not always endorsement.
Also to be found at @APHClarkson@mastodon.social as well as @APHClarkson
www.ullstein.de/werke/die-macht-der-diaspora/hardcover/978354910
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Difference is the French political system has enough other options on the Left and Centrists with their own powerbases to balance top level blundering
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CJ Lemire
@cjlemire.bsky.social
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"Here's the parlour game I just made up in my head. No I haven't thought through the implications, nor have I checked how it aligns with Democratic Party rules."
1 replies 6 reposts 19 likes
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World Politics Review
@wpr.bsky.social
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The UK’s new PM Keir Starmer will need to balance public impatience for quick results with effective policies that lead to long-term success, Alexander Clarkson (@aphclarkson.bsky.social) writes.
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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It's a pattern with people who take TBI seriously. Blair's circle has always been easily suckered by the latest fashionable tech hucksterism, and I suspect Stewart gets drawn into that too. It's a way of sounding knowledgeable without having to think too much about systems or structures
4 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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The classical analogy came to mind after reading this rather different and earlier classical analogy in a John Ganz blog on "Blue Maga"
www.unpopularfront.news/p/rule-and-r...
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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The EU's Brussels bubble discourse towards events in Washington exudes a bit of an early 5th century vibe of imperial officials in Constantinople shrugging their shoulders and going "crazy how much those jokers in Rome have screwed up, eh?"
2 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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This week for World Politics Review, I look at how handling the tension between policy processes that take years to get results and the politics of an impatient public that wants results now will be the biggest challenge for the UK's new Labour government
www.worldpoliticsreview.com/uk-election-...
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Yair Wallach
@yairwallach.bsky.social
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This is from today. IDF expels the entire population of Gaza city - orders them to go to Dir al-Balah. That's the tens/hundreds of thousands who stayed behind in previous "ordered evacuations".
2 replies 57 reposts 86 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Suella Braverman's comments are beginning to make more sense as the basis of leading defecting MPs with far right sympathies out of the Conservative Party than a bid to lead it
4 replies 6 reposts 30 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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One of the biggest advantages of European strategic autonomy would be not having to care about what voters in Wisconsin think
1 replies 4 reposts 25 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Take a careful look at over 40 years of output from the New York Times and Wall Street Journal for a start
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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After a certain point the claims of the supposed superiority of the US system over the EU and UK start to sound absurd in the face of a dysfunctional US constitutional order and the hollowing out of key manufacturing pillars of the US economy
1 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Tbh it is still gobsmacking how terrible the post-2019 Conservative leadership has been at politics
1 replies 0 reposts 12 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Though RN in the South has much more of a coherent and savvy political machine than anything Reform in the UK or AfD in Germany have managed to put together
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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I think there is a decent outside bet to be had on the Tories splitting so badly that Ed Davey becomes LOTO
3 replies 1 reposts 23 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Swinford's summary on the other place of Badenoch's statements to the shadow cabinet. Analysts close to the Tories who recommended a long period of reflection before choosing a leader have given the dumbest strategic advice since Romans thought hiring a guy called Alaric would solve their problems
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J.M. Berger
@intelwire.bsky.social
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The absolute worst outcome here is Calvinball. If it's not Biden, it's Harris. Anything else is chaos, and you know who loves chaos?
3 replies 6 reposts 25 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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I've long been convinced that RN can only win the presidency with a candidate not called Le Pen
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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That in turn will lead to some bitter infighting, particularly if (as I'm convinced) it means sidelining Marine Le Pen. The party already went through a similar process after 2017. But that was several losing electoral cycles ago, under MLP. 11/
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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Those who want to govern have been in the ascendant in recent years, boosted by the RN's rise and expansion. But it means moving past being the Le Pen family racket and truly building out and professionalizing the party infrastructure. 10/
1 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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Exacerbating the problem for the RN is that you also need a lot more candidates to contest a French legislative election nation-wide than you do for a European Parliament electoral list. Clearly, the RN's infrastructure is still not up to the task, especially on such short notice. 8/
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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So while Bardella could still be the face of the RN for national campaigning in the media, the party actually had to field candidates in every district, and these candidates had to campaign for themselves, all on very short notice. The result was the many cases of amateurish RN candidates. 6/
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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But the proportional representation model also plays to the RN's strengths because it is a party list system, in which the candidate chosen to head the list does the campaigning. In the European elections, that was Bardella, who is clearly a skilled communicator and a perfect fit for that role. 4/
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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I've already pointed to the significance of the second-round runoff in French legislative elections vs the one-round proportional representation system used for the European elections. The RN does well in the latter because it is now France's biggest single party, but only by a ~35% plurality. 3/
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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I was a bit rash with this one, and those who said the RN is too much of a family business for MLP to be forced out are probably right. What I should have said is that MLP will retire to the back offices if the party wants to win, and that their will be blood in the weeks/months to come.
1 replies 6 reposts 20 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Fallout is basically a ripoff of Amtrak wars after all
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Still surprised no one has done a Shadowrun movie or tv series. Better IP by far than Fallout
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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So much of what is mainstream now goes back to Henry Rollins
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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1986 to be exact
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Mr. Am I Being Detained
@gonebabygone.bsky.social
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What on earth does “a Reservoir Dogs style show of force” even mean, this is beyond “you missed the point of the movie,” it’s “have you literally not seen the movie”
23 replies 31 reposts 249 likes
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Alan Beattie
@alanbeattie.bsky.social
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Addendum: those who enjoyed the contributions to this thread from the cheerfully bonkers official account @conservatives should know that, sadly, it's been deleted. Long-time scourges of cancel culture, the Conservatives have now cancelled themselves.
2 replies 5 reposts 19 likes
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Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
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Another very interesting expert appointment via the Lords (this time someone already in there): Peter Hendy, former head of TFL, to the Department of Transport. Makes sense as TFL an excellent model for how to run a nationalised* railway. *Let's not open the 'is TFL nationalised or not?' debate.
11 replies 18 reposts 94 likes
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ryan cooper
@ryanlcooper.com
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Economist estimates that "between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by mid-June—more than Russia’s estimated invading force in February 2022." www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
4 replies 68 reposts 243 likes
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Will Stancil
@whstancil.bsky.social
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tbh I feel like this whole thing is kinda my final victory on the media narratives debate even though it heralds the destruction of everyone smart enough to actually participate in the debate
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B. A. Friedman
@bafriedman.bsky.social
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It’s almost like the media created an issue just for clicks and content.
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Katie Martin
@katie0martin.bsky.social
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hmmm
17 replies 30 reposts 94 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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The median ex-Tory Green voter
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Thomas Cheney
@thomascheney.bsky.social
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something to consider with all the inevitable discussion of Reform's success is that their vote share is not that much of an improvement on UKIP's 2015 result - they've gotten better at winning seats but number of votes and % of votes are not that much improved
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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The risks of a botched leadership election and a split between politically homeless One Nation Tories and larger post-Tory Far Right factions are a bit underpriced at the moment
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Guys, it's not 2005 anymore
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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It's an unpopular opinion right now, but I suspect giving the Tory Right too much time to think and plot is deeply unwise. A Tory time of reflection that drags out too long can escalate into a post-Tory civil war.
1 replies 4 reposts 14 likes
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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The trajectory of the far right is not linear. When themes and social conditions converge with the far right's strengths such movements benefit electorally. When other themes or crises dominate that don't match far right agendas other kinds of parties do well instead. Analysis needs to balance both
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Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social
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With elections across Europe there has been a recent tendency of overcorrecting from past mistakes to focus entirely on far right dynamics that were once scoffed at It means dynamics that are just as important such as factional positioning in France's Left or the rise of England's Greens get missed
2 replies 12 reposts 26 likes
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Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
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Very good thread this. In many ways this was a typical 2020s European election. When you consider how so many of those are ending, that's a bit worrying.
6 replies 22 reposts 89 likes
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David Higham
@oldtrotter.bsky.social
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Kwarteng demonstrating the same knowledge of ancient mythology as he did of economics. If I’d ****** things up as badly as he did, I’d keep my opinions to myself.
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Jonathan Hibberd
@jonnyhibberd.bsky.social
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The thing no one's talking about this morning is, whether they're aware of it or not, this has happened whilst the first effects of hard Brexit on our cost of living are being felt. If Labour insist on taking up this baton in full they're going to feel the effects of it next time
1 replies 10 reposts 8 likes
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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Some initial thoughts on the UK elections. 1. It confirms once again that when a center-right party veers to the hard right to weaken the far right, it ends up doing the opposite. After purging moderates and going full-on wingnuts and fever swamp, the Tories got decimated by Reform, not Labour. 🧵
9 replies 77 reposts 263 likes
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Costa Samaras
@costasamaras.bsky.social
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COUNTERPOINT: Voting is Good, actually
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World Politics Review
@wpr.bsky.social
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Amid their fixation on the rivalry between Le Pen and Macron, commentators outside France are paying far less attention to the country’s alliance of left-wing parties, whose fortunes are improving rapidly, Alexander Clarkson writes.
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Staffan Dahl
@staffand.bsky.social
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Good piece on how the new formation of the French Left has dispelled the idea that Macron's centrists are the only credible force to oppose the extreme right.
0 replies 2 reposts 3 likes