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b-boy bouiebaisse@jbouie.bsky.social |
as this write-up notes, no republican has won young voters since 1988, so i might be a little skeptical that we’re on the verge of a generational realignment among the youth www.axios.com/2024/06/13/t...
42 replies 70 reposts 512 likes
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@LuLuRoche
@luluroche.bsky.social
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I don’t believe it.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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UnKaren
@unkaren.bsky.social
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Youth can sniff out phonies. But the Turning Point kids are toxic MAGA.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Trey Lawson
@tlawson.bsky.social
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Also the alleged policy proposals they attribute to Trump as appealing to the youth vote are mostly BS
0 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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@julianes.bsky.social
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The yoots I know find Trump a creepy clown and that includes some from Cesspool Cincinnati.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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@alexandergruchala.bsky.social
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To those replying about European young people drifting to the far right, I wonder how much the American far right has a distinct church-y feel to it factors into Gen Z attitudes.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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🍉 I Love Pets Four Hundred Twenty
@ilovepets420.bsky.social
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That article is basically just a reprint of:
1 replies 4 reposts 90 likes
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SpagDretti
@spagdretti.bsky.social
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I mean any young voters that truly believe he is worth voting for are setting themselves up. Not to mention the bigger issue literally all Americans face is basic capitalism
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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@thekacer.bsky.social
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I'm dubious about polling showing Gen Z making a HARD right, but im very curious if they show up further right just because their liberal and left leaning voters are way less enthusiastic than the more conservative ones.
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That’s Too Much, Colby
@thatstoomuchcolby.bsky.social
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This couldn’t possibly have anything to do with plummeting poll response rates especially among the youth, could it? COULD IT?
1 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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here is the thing about this election. national polling suggests near realignments among key groups but then state-level polling, especially down ballot, suggests something much tighter and competitive www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/06/12/c...
9 replies 21 reposts 210 likes
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Jamin
@mackray.bsky.social
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In a marginal race, a marginal shift is nerve racking af
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Neil Stenhouse
@nstenhouse.bsky.social
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@brendannyhan.bsky.social who was posting recently about youth polls not being representative now? Thought it was you but maybe not
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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LP Superstar (derogatory)
@mraristocrates.bsky.social
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People who think that young people will vote Republican are hilariously out-of-touch with young people. And I don't even just mean that in the sense that they don't understand the youth's politics, but also in the sense that they don't understand how incredibly offputting Young Republicans are
0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Dungeon Messi
@tyschalter.bsky.social
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The other thing here is that 18-to-29 is a baloney demographic that doesn’t exist. 18-year-olds are like, “Lol, maybe Trump again? I was in middle school when he left” and 29-year-olds are grownups scrolling Zillow and crying
0 replies 3 reposts 38 likes
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Cosimo Kramedici
@slurmslurper.bsky.social
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I would absolutely believe that young Zoomers are more conservative than their older siblings and millennials. From what I’ve seen it’s a huge topic of discussion among teachers that teenage boy culture is now a toxic stew of right wing influencers
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John Carpenter
@jcinhct.bsky.social
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Shockingly, this in- depth analysis of the youth vote going towards Trump doesn’t say word one about abortion, birth control, LGBTQ rights or any of the actual topics that they care about. The election hinges on TikTok? What a lazy “analysis”
1 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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Steve Anichini
@solidangle.bsky.social
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I'm 48 and never pick up my phone for numbers I don't recognize, I genuinely wonder how they are polling people half my age. At some point low response rates have to affect the sample one way or the other, no?
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Moldy Warp
@moldywarp.bsky.social
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Tell that to the kids in the hipster coffee joint
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Ersatz Haderach
@striderhlc.bsky.social
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Trump isn’t even the hip meme candidate anymore.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Mark Shatraw
@markshatraw.bsky.social
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Can't believe the last of the Yalie spooks was so popular with the kids lol
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Michael
@fleerultra.bsky.social
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especially on the heels of years of studies showing that generation to be meaningfully to the left of older generations in a way that was a historical outlier and appeared durable
1 replies 1 reposts 20 likes
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Immaculate Fridge
@willb3.bsky.social
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They'll get it back when they promote another candidate who speaks to America's youth as adroitly as...hmm...George H.W. Bush?
3 replies 0 reposts 15 likes
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Aaron Huertas
@aaronhuertas.bsky.social
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Not quite about realignment, IMO, but how each cohort of youth voters politicizes in the first 1 -2 presidential elections as they age. The current alignment with a heavy tilt toward Democrats is novel and a huge reason Democrats have overperformed past few cycles.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
1 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Daniel Brody
@danielwbrody.bsky.social
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I am struggling with any realignment that somehow results in the same razor thin topline result. If the youth went to the GOP, shouldn’t they be pulling away with the election? Where are Dems making up those votes?
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Paulie in the act of existing
@yopauliefl.bsky.social
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Sample size of 1, my kid CANNOT WAIT TO VOTE non-republican, as can nearly all of her classmates.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Robert Cruickshank
@robertcruickshank.bsky.social
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Trump won’t win them outright but he is definitely making significant inroads that could be enough to swing him the election. He also doesn’t have to win them outright. A young voter who stays home is effectively a vote for Trump.
4 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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The Almighty Tallest
@spooknine.bsky.social
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Kinda fascinated by how GHWB could possibly have captured the youth vote tho
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zoobadger
@zoobadger.bsky.social
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Young people don't respond to pollsters.
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Aileen
@acorrn.bsky.social
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I’d be so curious to see what % of eligible voters in that demo participated over the same period
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Joan
@joanem.bsky.social
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Tik Tok influencers made inroads in Germany in getting youth to vote for far right AfG candidates
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Nails Nathan
@chadstanton.bsky.social
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Disengagement is the danger but that’s not sexy, same dynamic with stories on Black male voters imo
0 replies 0 reposts 22 likes
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TomNookYankees
@tomnookyankees.bsky.social
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You are probably right but it should be noted that in a lot of other nations, the rise of the far right has also had this exact kind of realignment so it is very possible it is now happening in the US too.
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A.
@buttmatt.bsky.social
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My concern isn’t so much that the youth will switch to Trump, my concern is they won’t turn out at all
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Steve Watts
@sporkyreeve.bsky.social
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I feel like we saw the exact same “he’s the disruption candidate and that could move youth voters” takes in 2016 and then it didn’t happen and he spent the next four years governing like he got printed out from the Federalist-Heritage Factory, what do they think has changed?
1 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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@greenknight909.bsky.social
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We might be about to get polling miss…
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Pete Fraser
@petefrasermusic.bsky.social
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I’d have thought the same if I hadn’t just seen the actually ballot box trends here in Sweden - it wasn’t explosive, but 18-30 are now significantly more likely to vote far right than 30-40.
3 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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eichjae
@plasticastro.bsky.social
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I don’t think there’s a realignment, I think Biden is just uniquely unpopular with young people. Generic democrats are polling well ahead of Biden.
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EAll
@ealluia.bsky.social
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I would bet any money on it, but I think a realignment along age is possible due to rapid shifts in media diet that occurred between 2020 and now. Further, what appears to be a mature fascist movement picking up steam among young males would be entirely in keeping with what we know about fascism.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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SJHnSTL
@sjhnstl.bsky.social
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Maybe only youth with landlines are included in the polling.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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John Weeks
@johnweeks.bsky.social
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Trump will do horribly But like the USA's pols mainly being in the tank for Israel (no matter what), lots of institutions and most of the right are in the tank for Trump. It will be fun to watch them flail, but they'll hurt innocents in various ways as they do it
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Erik
@erik45824291.bsky.social
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The NYT sienna polls have consistently shown Biden leading among 2020 voters, and trump leading among people who didn’t vote in 2020. How much of this youth polling is driven by non voting youth? Even if the polling is accurate, will they actually show up to vote?
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes