Robert McLachlan's avatar

Robert McLachlan

@robertmclachlan.bsky.social

70 followers 82 following 159 posts

New Zealand mathematician, writing on climate & the environment at planetaryecology.org

Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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On weakening fuel efficiency standards:

www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

Looking forward to reading the review, but if NZ does adopt Australia's standards (they chose the weakest of three options they were considering), here is what that would look like:

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Meanwhile, 360,000 households face energy poverty, 40,000 disconnected & face disconnection + reconnection fees.

www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...

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Willem Huiskamp's avatar Willem Huiskamp @willemh.bsky.social
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Carbon footprints among different income deciles in Germany are pretty similar.... until you look at transport. Once again, a very strong argument for a frequent fliers tax.
www.diw.de/documents/pu...

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Nick Young's avatar Nick Young @nickofnz.bsky.social
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5 reasons the government should slow down on raising speed limits

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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For road deaths, New Zealand has fallen from 18th place out of 36 OECD countries in 2000, to 28th place in 2010, to 34th place in 2022, having recently fallen behind Turkey, Latvia, and Poland.

Food for thought with govt about to increase speed limits.

Source: data.oecd.org/transport/ro...

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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June 2024 was another slow month for EVs with just 939 sales. H1 2024 sales 4709, market share 4.2%. It will be hard to reach the Ministry of Transport's forecast of 24k, even half that may be a stretch. At least the UK is bringing back the 2030 end date for ICE cars – more used imports for us?

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Domestic aviation emissions in the year to March 2024 are 25% higher than pre-Covid. It's in the ETS, although that by itself does not reduce emissions. International aviation emissions are returning to those of the boom years, 2014-2019. Three times larger than domestic, but no carbon charge.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Transport emissions are challenging to deal with, but at least some countries are having a go. Expect to see some changes once 2023 data is in.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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In which I reckon New Zealand's CO2 emissions could have gone down 25% since 1990, instead of up 25%, just by doing things that other countries were already doing, by not inexplicably stopping things we'd started.
blog.planetaryecology.org/2024/06/30/w...

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Two countries in the world have introduced Road User Charges for EVs, Iceland and New Zealand. In Iceland, EV sales are down 70%; in NZ, down 76%. Iceland EV market share 15% vs 61% for 2023; NZ, 3.5% vs 15% for 2023.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Ministry of Transport: "We may use an artificial intelligence tool to help us analyse submissions."

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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The NZ EV market is not so much in stagnation as collapse... but if we stick to the current fuel efficiency targets we can return to growth. Learn from the EU.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Let me guess, was it the nuclear physics conference or the Soviet tiltrotor aircraft?

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Transport & Environment UK (T&E UK)'s avatar Transport & Environment UK (T&E UK) @transenvuk.bsky.social
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"It is really really odd, it is down-right bizarre actually that airlines don't pay fuel duty [...] the aviation sector are very happy with no one knowing it because as soon as people hear it, they're like 'that just doesn't add up at all'- @mattfinch00.bsky.social.

www.mirror.co.uk/travel/news/...

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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I had a FB post on climate change rejected – for posting, not promotion. 'Fixed' by removing some of the links.

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Mark Chadbourn's avatar Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social
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Labour confirms it will reinstate the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars that Rishi Sunak last year pushed back to 2035.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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New Zealand N2o emissions up 32%, now 1.4 tCO2e/person (EU: 0.5, world 0.37)

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Yesterday Shane Jones said, "We [the Government] may have bought into the global warming narrative, but..." and last week Simeon Brown called the NDC "a bumper sticker and an announcement in Paris".

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Shane Jones addressing the Environmental Defence Society's annual conference: "We may have bought into the global warming narrative, but..."

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Shouldn't users of grid electricity be compensated in some way? They've gone from >90% renewable to 60-70% fossil electricity through no action of their own.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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NZ electric vehicle market still in the doldrums post-feebate/RUC. 793 sales in May, 3771 YTD, making the Ministry's forecast of 24000 for the year hard to reach. Overall market down 11% on 2023, EVs down 76%. The longer this goes on, the more emissions savings have to be found elsewhere.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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New IATA report:
– jet fuel to exceed 2019 levels in 2024
– CORSIA baseline to be exceeded by 125MtCO2, "offset" at $4/tonne
– Alternative Fuels could supply 0.5% of demand in 2024
– 65% traffic growth forecast by 2035
– weak political leaders blamed for climate change
www.iata.org/en/iata-repo...

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Reposted by Robert McLachlan

Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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So proud that this essay on the French intellectual "collapsologues" (forecasters of imminent social and environmental collapse) is illustrated with a picture of the detonation of the Christchurch Police Station.
www.nybooks.com/online/2020/...

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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I wonder if this will re-start the renewable energy industry. I can't think of any new final investment decisions since the election. But perhaps not, Tiwai Point staying open was looking more and more likely & may have been priced in.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/busines...

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Zeke Hausfather's avatar Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social
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There is a new estimate of the impacts of the IMO low-sulfur marine fuel regulations by Tianle Yuan and colleagues.

Unfortunately, the paper's problematic assessment of global temperature response substantially overstates near-term warming impacts: theclimatebrink.com/p/a-problema...

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Interesting reflection on climate leadership in Ardern's first term by David Hall, including further criticisms of the ETS: undermines multilevel governance; vulnerable to political whim; so confusing it undermines support.
www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-edi...

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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An actual (non-CGI) photo of the surface of Venus taken in 1982 (source: apod, NASA)

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Reposted by Robert McLachlan

Reposted by Robert McLachlan

Veronika Meduna's avatar Veronika Meduna @veronikameduna.bsky.social
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In a win for island nations, an ocean tribunal found greenhouse gases constitute marine pollution - it means states are required to prevent, reduce and control emissions not just under int climate agreements but also the law of the sea theconversation.com/a-new-ruling...

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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At last, the Filipino-New Zealand Green MP with a background in student politics we've been waiting for.

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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"Isn't this the purpose of education, to learn the nature of your own gifts and how to use them for good in the world?" – Robin Wall Kimmerer, Braiding Sweetgrass

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Robert McLachlan's avatar Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan.bsky.social
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Have the supporters of the Bill made any attempt to engage with these arguments? Or do they think they don't need to bother, since they have the power to push it through? All I've seen from supporters amounts to "consenting is too slow."

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