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Sam Ulmschneider@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social |
153 followers 427 following 999 posts
Teacher at Maggie L Walker, all views my own not the school's / Constitutional law, poli sci, political theory, US history / husband / cat person / strategy gamer / Madisonian / Lincolnite
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I really don't know, which is why my position on this is very undecided. Presidents are certainly usually surrounded by notes, advisors, and preparations, so it's possible that such situations are a fairer mode of evaluating a candidate for the Presidency.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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Sorry, I meant to say I don't have a strong position on intra-democratic party debates. I have a strong voting and advocacy position on the survival of a democratic republic and the need to prevent a second term for President Trump.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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the question - and it's a hard and complicated one - is whether political professionals and campaign managers are in agreement with the 'nation's columnists.' that's just really hard to know since they are (rightly) people whose job is partly to not mouth off in public or to the press.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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as for the VP, it's mostly about the fact that being VP means jetting all over the nation and sometimes the world to deliver messages, which no other statewide or Congressional office does to the same degree. None of this is an argument for Harris or against Biden per se, just an attempt to answer!
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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Winning in California requires winning a variety of parts of the Democratic coalition at the statewide level. For example, Cooley, her 2012 opponent, was a moderate Republican with a long record as an elected DA and base in many urban areas. He won as a Republican in Los Angeles in 2008 by 300k!
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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he does a very strong job of being specific to Wisconsin, and specific to the questions the host asks, though the questions are (as they should be on a friendly program!) generally aimed at already-prepared talking points. It's solid, the kind of work Presidential campaigns are supposed to be doing.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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yes, Bouie has (as usual) done a remarkable job of remaining thoughtfully analytic about this whole cycle of messages and debates.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I'm listening to it as we speak, and it's fairly solid performance! Although the link seems to be from a May 14 stream, it's a solid set of talking points, delivered well. I've rarely worried about Biden's capacity to deliver well-prepared talking points in a friendly environment.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I agree, which is why I don't have a strong position on anything. Biden's been a fabulous retail politician for thirty-five years or more. It will be valuable to see if a retail blitz, as it materializes, has tangible impacts in swing state polling.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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while I really don't have a strong position yet on any of this, it's worth considering that the vast majority of these have been places with prepared remarks, notes, teleprompters, and other aids. That's somewhat different from improvisational or off-the-cuff situations, like the debate itself.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I am still very conflicted on this whole debate, but statewide campaigning in enormous 'ol California plus a slog in the Vice Pres campaign slot is about the best practice one can get for a national electoral college campaign.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I'd note that it is Good, Actually for parties to have healthy internal debates and discussions. When those become unhealthy is a hard line to draw, but in preserving the health of big-tent parties (which our system can't do without) accusations of bad faith should really be a last resort.
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Jeff Lazarus
@jlazarus.bsky.social
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I am literally a professional politics-knower and I can confirm that our ability to predict what will happen next is literally never as good as pundits like to pretend it is. As I tell my grad students, social science doesn't do point predictions.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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sincere question: would the seal team 6 hypo be less worrisome because Congress has the explicit constitutional power to create rules and regulations for the military, so it's a shared area of power, not merely a sole and exclusive Presidential power like the pardon is?
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Seth Masket
@smotus.bsky.social
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SCOTUS: Chevron schmevron. We’re the regulators now.
Political science: Okay fine, here’s some data on redistricting for you to consider.
SCOTUS: Fuck off, nerd www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-...
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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Congress has war powers too, so there's a deep bog with regards to what this all means when it comes to immunity for Presidential acts under Commander in Chief, since CinC is subject to Congress' power to define military rules of action and law of war stuff.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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it's easy to over-catastrophize the Trump v US ruling - notably, the lower court can and will create a definition of which are core and official acts that is likely to sweep a majority of the charged behavior into the unofficial category, and some of it into presumptive-but-not-actual immunity cat.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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thinking more about things in American history, I wonder how the Reagan admin's arming the contras stacks up under the new Trump v US standard. It violated the Boland Amendment, but because it was a core official act, Reagan couldn't be prosecuted for violating the Amendment?
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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the founders of our democracy were bold, persistent experimenters who wrote two national constitutions and almost two dozen state constitutions in twenty years. they proclaimed they were learning the lessons of history up to that point. Why can't our admiration of them lead us to innovate, too?
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I really like Feldman's The Broken Constitution on this conundrum
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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one of the most amazing implications is when you combine the decisions of this term, Biden could issue a ton of pardons to people who then pay him cash after leaving office and couldn't be prosecuted because the pardon power is untouchable and post-action gratuities aren't corruptions.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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not just official actions, but what the Court here singles out as "core constitutional" areas of specifically exclusive granted power, it seems, referring only to Youngstown, as though that clarifies the extent of the CinC power and its interaction with Congress' war powers.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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It's really remarkable the degree to which this opinion rests on cases which are themselves fonts of ambiguity and controversy, from the removal/appointment cases to Youngstown itself while saying that somehow those cases define effective the core areas of absolute immunity.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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Corner Post is one I hadn't kept my eye on nearly so much, but that's just a staggering implication. We're gonna have people challenging agency rules dating back decades and decades with this door opened.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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and a good one! the weird instant dismissals of her by people panicking post-debate is so weird to me. She's clearly a fairly potent political force - one with limits, like any politician, but we have only a moderate sense of what those limits are right now from one short national run.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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she sewed up both her statewide AG runs and her Senate run with fairly remarkable acuity - that's mostly what I was referring to. It takes pretty good political instincts to really navigate the complicated statewide politics of the Democratic party of California.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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in fact, her electoral career up to that point has shown a fairly remarkable string of wins and capacity to manage the complex democratic coalition politics of a state like California as well as challenging policymaking dilemmas in law enforcement. not much underperforming, per se.
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Nicholas Grossman
@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
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The Constitution doesn’t say whether or not Congress can pass laws granting discretion in regulatory standards to an executive agency staffed by experts. *Both* the Chevron ruling saying Congress can and the recent Loper Bright ruling saying Congress can’t were judges winging it.
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David Schraub
@schraubd.bsky.social
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Con Law profs welcome Admin Law profs to the “burn all your lecture notes and start anew next semester” club.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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yeah, there's a lot of room for weirdness in between "that was not great optics" and "immediate full blown panic measures"
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Micah
@rincewind.run
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the thing with this decision is that if we had a functional legislature it wouldn’t do as much damage, because it could just clarify an ambiguous regulation if a judge interpreted it incorrectly but we don’t, and roberts knows we don’t, and we won’t anytime soon (or ever)
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Gautham FC
@gauthamrao.bsky.social
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Chevron famously said, "Judges are not experts in the field, and are not part of either political branch of the Government." Today, Roberts and the other chaos agents on the court say: "Judges are the only experts in any field, and can dictate policy to either political branch of the Gov't"
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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and the thing is, we know a LOT about the 1787 Convention! A bunch of people wrote about it at various degrees of remove and revisions after the fact who were there, or talked about it and their recollections were recorded. If anyone had cited biblical text directly, we'd know it, probably!
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I spend a lot of time reading people from the 19th century and it's always remarkable to hear people in the 21st talking about the tariff as a major issue or revenue input
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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genuinely amazing that there was a whole question on childcare costs, something that genuinely beads sweat on the brows of millions of people across income, ethnic, and regional lines and basically nothing of use has been said on the issue by anyone on stage.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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yeah, there's basically no way to unpack "so how come communities of color have systematically worse economic outcomes" in two or three one minute sound bite answers.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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...to elaborate: Trump has 3-4 sound bites on any given set of vaguely related topics he can deploy together in a near-replica, down to intonation and timing. That's part of the rally persona, the interview persona. He's much better at it than Biden and it really shows in these one minute answers.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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Trump has the serial TV talent set of rapid acquisition of mad lib memorization. About 80% of what we've heard tonight is almost exactly from the rally scripts, more or less detached from the content of the debate or questions. That's a really valuable skill for this sort of format.
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Jonathan Bernstein
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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(This stuff about NATO nations "paying" is not only incoherent, but exactly the opposite of what's happened; NATO defense spending has actually gone way up with Biden as president)
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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there are lots of weird things going on here but one that keeps me in awe is the relative inability of President Trump to even remotely understand how NATO and the EU actually work as like, geopolitical and military entities.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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this is the most disorienting, disorganized, unhelpful thing any voter could possibly imagine. televised debates might in some small, limited circumstances be a useful or valuable addition to our democratic system, but it seems like that's rarer rather than more common.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I, sadly, need to watch to talk about impacts and analysis and theatrics, not just to decide my own personal vote
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Seth Cotlar
@sethcotlar.bsky.social
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For some reason I find myself thinking about Gretchen Whitmer tonight.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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both of these candidates are giving kinda odd, rambling answers, as far as I can tell only one of them is often giving out actual lies (illegal immigrants on social security?), but only Trump can make it all sound vaguely coherent because of his practice in the TV medium.
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Comics in the Golden Age
@comicsinthega.bsky.social
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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as a government and civics teacher, I feel some kind of obligation to watch this thing, but god is it more painful every year
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Micah
@rincewind.run
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constitutional law professors (foolish): you can predict what the supreme court will do if you look at historical case law us (smart, wise): you can predict what the supreme court will do if you look at them as partisan republicans trying to achieve specific policies and electoral outcomes
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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I think they fear DE a little too much, unfortunately. Too many universities have a strong incentive to limit DE credit received same as they have a strong incentive to limit AP credit received. every DE or AP credit is less tuition paid to that university, and that's can be a huge problem for them.
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Sam Ulmschneider
@sam-ulmschneider.bsky.social
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oh yes I suspect they feel a market threat.
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