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Geoffrey Williams@geoffreyfw.bsky.social |
14 followers 98 following 78 posts
Associate professor of economics at Transylvania University in Lexington, Kentucky. NB: Not actually a crested macaque.
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Cheryl Rofer
@cherylrofer.bsky.social
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Pardon, y'all, but I have some data. From Josh Marshall - "[W]e now have seven polls in which we have before and after data from individual pollsters, before the debate and after... Putting all those together you have Biden going down one point and Trump remaining unchanged."
0 replies 13 reposts 48 likes
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Bethany Albertson
@albertsonb2.bsky.social
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Either the Democrats will run Biden, or he'll say he can't continue the campaign and Democrats will run Harris. Either is newsworthy, but neither is nearly as radical as running a pro-insurrection convicted felon with legal immunity he's eager to use.
11 replies 206 reposts 772 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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So what are concrete actions we can take to protest the immunity decision?
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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It’s interesting to see how some of the predictive systems we (I) were all excited about 10 years ago are being manipulated. The 538 tracker, which is a great idea, is showing a Biden drop at least in small part because of at a few polls based on pre debate interviews dropped by groups with agendas.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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And at the same time Biden’s slightly up in the latest Ipsos…
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Quinta Jurecic
@qjurecic.bsky.social
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www.lawfaremedia.org/article/a-de...
1 replies 10 reposts 26 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Somehow this week I can’t stop thinking about New Coke.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Speaking of surveys - I have one with n=1. There is a house about 2 miles from me, on a few of my regular errand routes, that has a lot of wood carvings in the yard. About 6 months ago, they put up a big hand-carved Trump 2024 sign. The week of the convictions it came down, haven’t seen it since.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Pwnallthethings
@pwnallthethings.bsky.social
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Supreme Court rules 6-3 American Revolutionary War was incorrectly decided
31 replies 209 reposts 1052 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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/8 At any rate, congratulations to the Federalist Society for an achievement beyond the reach of the British, outside the grasp of bloody civil war, impossible to Nazis and Soviets and terrorists: defeating the American idea.
40 replies 888 reposts 2772 likes
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Taniel
@taniel.bsky.social
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THE sentence of the day: A Macronist incumbent in the Marseille region came in 3rd in her seat. She just dropped out to support the left. She said, about why she's maneuvering to block the far-right: "Defeats happen, but you can never recover from dishonor."
18 replies 477 reposts 1602 likes
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Jacob T. Levy
@jacobtlevy.bsky.social
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Not one more minute of defensiveness from the Biden campaign, please. Not one more question answered about age or debates. All day, every day, a referendum on Trump's criminality and assault on the constitutional order, on what he would be like with blank check for his lawlessness.
7 replies 116 reposts 437 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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The only pollster that was regularly publishing and has post 6/27 data is Morning Consult which shows a 1+ move for Biden. Obviously its still early but right now no particular sign of any impact from debate, despite the move of 538’s headline numbers. 2/2
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Trying to keep an eye on what’s going on in polls and checking the 538 tracker (caveat, caveat) So, their running avg shifted against Biden by 1.5 points since the debate BUT that seems to be due to polls taken BEFORE the debate OR a few pollsters who haven’t published any data for months. 1/2
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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That “Black jobs” seems to be the main thing from the debate to go actually viral on social media should give certain columnists some pause about their pulse on the campaign.
20 replies 289 reposts 1109 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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tired: the coverup is worse than the crime wired: the freakout is worse than the fuckup
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Benjamin Dreyer
@bcdreyer.bsky.social
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I was perhaps lukewarm about Pres. Humphrey's second term, but the first was absolutely solid.
4 replies 22 reposts 132 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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One thing I’ve learned from Dobbs and the end of Roe is to be very suspicious when people complain, at length, about how inelegantly the cat is belled.
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Sounds good. Get the signatures, in advance, in blood, of all the relevant parties and I’m sold.
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Cheryl Rofer
@cherylrofer.bsky.social
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Here's my contribution to The Discourse.
0 replies 7 reposts 17 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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It’s hard for me to come up with a more obviously self-refuting statement than “The reason Biden is struggling to beat Trump is candidate quality.”
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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The instapolls definitely support that Biden had a bad night (we need no ghost, come from the grave, etc etc…). But I don’t see a justification in these polls for the unhinged panic online and in the media.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Cheryl Rofer
@cherylrofer.bsky.social
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Third - and maybe it should be first - is just shut up for a while and let the adrenaline wear off.
0 replies 3 reposts 22 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Sadly, it’s been 20 years since I was there but one thing I know - you definitely have to be careful! If you just randomly walk into a place in the main areas you are likely to get charged $200 for Chef Boyardee!
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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I think the Parable of the Desk from Wire Season 1 is helpful- detectives struggling to move a desk through a door, but failing miserably. The punchline is one group was trying to move it in to a room, the other out. I am not sure where some of the folks you mention wanted to move the desk. 2/2
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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On the one hand, I find the idea of diverse views very appealing- it can help to come up with new and innovative ideas, certainly! But for that to work, it is important that everyone has similar preferences about the outcome - otherwise, people may be defining the problem in incompatible ways. 1/2
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Alec Stapp
@alecstapp.bsky.social
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Contender for favorite chart of all time: Predictions vs. Reality for solar energy.
59 replies 755 reposts 2300 likes
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Howard French
@hofrench.bsky.social
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www.nytimes.com/2024/06/19/a...
0 replies 6 reposts 11 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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The second was a man out at night when he encountered a group of threatening young men - luckily he was able to protect himself by yelling and showing his gun! I bet you can’t possibly guess the ethnicities of the participants…. 2/2
0 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Mark Bryant of GVA has a great DGU story - two reports came in, same day, same town. One was from a group of medical students headed to a pizzeria for a late night study break when a guy started yelling at them and waving a gun. 1/2
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Chris Miller
@iamcurious.bsky.social
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OMG
0 replies 14 reposts 66 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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even the thought is painful
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Apparently he revised his vision of Smiley at least a bit after working with Guinness in the 1979 Tinker Tailor
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Gave me a lasting reverence for Richard Burton’s acting.
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Make a movie milder: Semi-desert Scrub
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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embarrassed that it took me a second 😂
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jacob T. Levy
@jacobtlevy.bsky.social
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Campaign ad that includes the correct precise numbers. Scrolling text: 60 courts rejected Donald Trump's claims that the 2020 election was stolen. 900 people convicted or pled guilty to January 6 crimes. 10 Trump lawyers disbarred or facing disciplinary or criminal charges. 1/
4 replies 128 reposts 339 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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paging @drfarls.bsky.social
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Joe Katz
@joekatz45.bsky.social
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Investigate. Impeach. Expand.
10 replies 68 reposts 241 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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I don’t know. French is, to be kind, a very special case. For the last decade or so he has alternated between mea culpa pieces like this and fairly haughty nasty lectures to liberals. I think 80-90% of this story he had already told in 2017 when he wrote this:
www.nationalreview.com/corner/charl...
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan Froomkin (Presswatchers.org)
@froomkin.bsky.social
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The Post, although it forbids reporters from accepting even small gifts from sources, has no official policy on the much larger conflicts of interest that involve its owner – or, now, its publisher. presswatchers.org/2024/06/will...
1 replies 17 reposts 36 likes
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Dan Froomkin (Presswatchers.org)
@froomkin.bsky.social
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Will Lewis must go. The Washington Post publisher’s actions cast doubt on his newsroom’s credibility. presswatchers.org/2024/06/will...
14 replies 139 reposts 441 likes
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emptywheel
@emptywheel.bsky.social
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David Weiss immunized the gun shop owner who altered the Hunter Biden gun purchase document so he could charge Joe Biden's son for owning a gun for 11 days in 2018. And of the 50 or so journos covering the case, I've seen only CNN even report that the form did get altered.
8 replies 71 reposts 210 likes
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Michael Hiltzik
@hiltzikm.bsky.social
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My latest column: The GOP shows how to smear a devoted public servant
www.latimes.com/business/sto...
0 replies 5 reposts 13 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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Also (natch!) FT and I assume other Brit/Euro news sources (link paywalled, apologies)
Five challenges facing Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum on.ft.com/45bYgKs
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Radley Balko
@radleybalko.bsky.social
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Here's some feedback on one the last pieces I wrote for the WaPo, in 2022, from the editor who later fired me: "this is not ready for prime time" "familiar and therefore boring and unnecessary" "bottom is hard to follow for any reader who managed to make her way all the way there"
21 replies 116 reposts 554 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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NY Books has had some articles, not super detailed, for example:
www.nybooks.com/online/2024/...
1 replies 2 reposts 3 likes
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Rachel Cole
@rmartincole.bsky.social
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1 replies 10 reposts 38 likes
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southpaw
@nycsouthpaw.bsky.social
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moon needs clocks www.cnn.com/2024/05/30/s...
23 replies 40 reposts 269 likes
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Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
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I think it may make at least some hard core “old school” GOP types stay home. They won’t vote for Biden but a felon for GOP candidate? Do a write in or don’t vote.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes