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Harry Stevens@harrystevens.bsky.social |
How accurate is the weather forecast in your city?
Niko Kommenda and I learned that NWS just began doing gridded assessments of forecast accuracy. We got the data and mapped of how many days into the future they get within 3°F of the observed high temp.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
29 replies 144 reposts 446 likes
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Erica "digifox" Kovac
@digifox.binaryden.net
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Kinda curious what this plot would look like for precipitation predictions, which is often more important
2 replies 0 reposts 15 likes
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B.P. Caeser
@caeser75.bsky.social
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Illinois, the Saint Louis area.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Transgender Ideologue 🏳️⚧️
@javis.bsky.social
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📌
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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@burstaholic.bsky.social
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Hurricane coast is highly motivated 😅
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dave Vanness
@djvanness.bsky.social
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One of those little yellow patches in central Pennsylvania happens to be Centre County - home of Accuweather. As a resident, I would say 48 hours is a big stretch.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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One Who Walks Among the Dead
@anubisthejackal.bsky.social
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Can anecdotally confirm this is 100% accurate. I live in the Midwest, and the forecasts have been shockingly all over the place in terms of veracity.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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@charliemic.bsky.social
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In the UK: it might be sunny in 5 minutes, quick, everyone buy a BBQ. 5 minutes later...
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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BlepBork
@blepbork.bsky.social
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I use the weather app on iPhone. It is usually not very accurate ahead of time.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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CK DexterHaven
@ckshowalter.bsky.social
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This is awesome and I’m loving the detail. Thank you!
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Bender Rodríguez
@plungerman.bsky.social
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milwaukee as "no more than two days out" is an accurate assumption.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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joqatana
@joqatana.bsky.social
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My weather app doesn’t understand microclimates so I have to look up a different town for any kind of accuracy.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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shayrul
@shayruldawn.bsky.social
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I don't know because for a whole week they were telling us it was finally going to rain. Friday Saturday Sunday rain all day! Woohoo! Nope. No rain. Not even a nice, respectable pattern of afternoon thundershowers.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Ferles
@ferles.bsky.social
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Very interesting. Tangentially related, I've lived in 6 different states spread out over 3 of those 4 broad regions. Everywhere I have lived someone said "You know what they say about the weather in [our state]. Wait a few minutes and it changes."
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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cidonnelly1
@cidonnelly.bsky.social
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In my area, it’s not temperature so much as the “sturm and drang” — precipitation, wind, humidity, air quality — that will kill you.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Jack of The Shadows
@porkrocket.bsky.social
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Ok this makes sense why the weekend weather is always vastly different then the Monday reports.
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@patriciashannon.bsky.social
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They are usually very close for my location.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Rosie
@rosiepone.bsky.social
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the weather forecast is absolute garbage here, but I live in the middle of nowhere, in a very geographically isolated area, so storms either pass around us or they get stuck here for days longer than predicted
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Harry Stevens
@harrystevens.bsky.social
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We made a tool that lets you look up the accuracy of the temperature forecast in your town.
Interestingly, forecast accuracy varies depending on whether it's hot or cold outside, so we included a comparison of warm vs. cool months.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
1 replies 3 reposts 19 likes
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Angela 🦭 ❄️
@gingela.bsky.social
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Everyone in Oklahoma is a weather expert, thanks to our crazy weather and our amazing, excellent meteorologists who keeps us in the loop.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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nrgpup7
@nrgpup7.bsky.social
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That's pretty neat! SE FL is very predictable, but storm cells like to be a little too playful sometimes. Frustrating for aviation folk.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Robert Szasz 𓅆
@rszasz.bsky.social
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Which models?
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patsy
@pattison.bsky.social
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how about rain? my forecast has trouble with current precipitation.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Tim Supinie
@plustssn.bsky.social
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Cool stuff! I wonder how it would change if you used median error instead of mean. I suspect that in the early part of the forecast, the mean might be skewed by a few really bad misses (particularly in the cool season).
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Kat Flint
@kflint.bsky.social
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has this changed with climate change at all? I could swear that the 5-day forecasts 10 years ago held up better than they do now, but I was in the same 3-4 day zone at both points in my life
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Van Weasel 🔥 Summer Hater Arc 🔥
@vanweezer.bsky.social
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Any way to do a map like this for participation instead of temps?
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Sydney Bloomington
@bloomington19.bsky.social
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It's not quite nice here in the US The weather is cool
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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e.e. yikes
@eeyikes.bsky.social
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I have Carrot weather and I keep changing what source it uses, trying to find something that can at least tell me (roughly, within reason) when it’s gonna rain. All of them are trash.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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OneDishwasher
@onedishwasher.bsky.social
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nice graphic! Did you play around and make one for other accuracies? (+/- 2 degrees or 4 degrees)
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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jay pico
@jpco.io
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Alaska excluded :(
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes