a useful exercise is to ask how the political press would be framing the election if the positions were reversed, meaning, if Trump were an incumbent presiding over a strong economy wielding a powerful campaign apparatus and Biden was the shambolic challenger on trial for multiple criminal offenses
It’s going to lead to increased cognitive dissonance for many Rs if Trump loses — even more than Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2020 — which means there’s a much higher chance for a backlash / different and more virulent election denialism.
it's a useful exercise for most media narratives. imagine if the Uyghurs revolted, up to and including terrorist acts. presumably the framing would be the mirror imagine of israel-palestine. hard to imagine pro-uyghur campus protests being steamrolled to the same extent.
The key thing to remember is that *most* people (press included) have no idea what a strong economy is or looks like / most don’t understand what the key measures are.
You can see a shadow of it in the 2012 election.
Romney was terrible candidate who made unbelievable gaffs (47%, dog torture) and the press was so in his corner everyone was shocked when he lost.
how would the press treat biden’s polling lead in that situation? how would it treat trump’s polling weakness? assume also in this scenario that republicans are the ones with the down ballot strength
So long as editorial guidance is driven in party by clicks, TFG would always get roped-in coverage.
That said, the 4th Estate loves themselves a horserace 🤔
There is a clear agenda. The lesson of 2016 and the narrowness of Biden's victory in 2020 would clearly show a neutral press Trump didn't need their thumbs on the scale
Trump's entire political career can be framed this way: what if Biden had to pay hundreds of millions to a woman he raped? What if Obama had said "Biden can win the election, if he has the courage" after HRC's loss? etc etc
Trump would be driving the coverage by making daily statements about his soon-to-be convicted-felon opponent and what a nasty human being he is. Massive banner headlines would announce Biden's guilt daily merely by quoting Trump.
The fact that Trump still gets more favorable polling on "the economy" than Biden just shows what a dismal failure our national media are.
Trump gave us the worst recession in 40 years. Biden got us out of it.
But because a quick recovery entails moderate inflation, they hammered away...
Let's go over how they've behaved in the past:
- Al Gore was destroyed for making phone calls on his cell phone from his office
- John Kerry had his actual service in Vietnam maligned while W's service in the National Guard was elevated
- Hillary was destroyed for using her own email server...
An even more useful exercise would be to ask Democrats to honestly confront the question of why Trump is contending at all considering how ridiculous he is. Yes, the political press sucks *very* much, but the more fundamental problem is Dems' denial re themselves - a better press won't solve that.
If (big "IF") trump gets convicted in NY, the press will be so amused by a felon being the candidate, they'll glorify it. They'll spin it so it's a good thing.
We've heard about him for every day of Biden's term. They can't let him go.
“Biden old AND on trial!!!!!!!1!!!”
I do wonder: how bad would polling have to get for Biden for the press to change course and treat Trump like a favorite (i.e. bring him down to help the horse race). Be funny if that was the trigger for fair-ish coverage.
I think part of this is the press is genuinely confused how a shambolic challenger on trial for multiple criminal offenses is effectively tied or leading, so they're grasping at explanations.
I believe that democratic voters wouldn't be voting for Biden if was on trial for multiple criminal offenses at the state and federal level.
Someone else would have won the primary.
Our political press would still be framing it as though Biden was in charge, and running it as a witch hunt.