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b-boy bouiebaisse@jbouie.bsky.social |
these numbers are basically vindication of one of my points in the NYT conversation, which is that whoever is the nominee inherits Biden’s position for the simple reason that they will be standard-bearers for the Biden administration.
25 replies 113 reposts 754 likes
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marcosantana
@marcosantana.bsky.social
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Republicans want to kill democrats. Any of them. lol It’s Sectarianism. That’s what this data shows. It’s a war without guns. At the moment. @chrislhayes.bsky.social @gtconway.bsky.social
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Huss Banai
@hbanai.bsky.social
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These numbers don’t and can’t factor in voter flight due to Biden’s inevitable precipitous decline between now and November.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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@chuck-hansen.bsky.social
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Matt Yglesias has done some good writing on the Biden numbers vs. all other incumbents in the world (they are much better but still bad).
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Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
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The argument would have to be that 1) the 1-3% of T respondents who shift to undecided would majority break for the new D candidate, but would never break for Biden and 2) the ones who break from the D line would not wind up switching to T.
0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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tonx
@tonx.coffee
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strange not to include Bernie in this polling -- the guy that has enough of a grassroots machine to deal himself in as a contender in a contested convention scenario.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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amdiamanti
@amdiamanti.bsky.social
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That plus those numbers only tell us how well those alternates fare without having experienced being the actual candidate. There’s a big variable that’s unaccounted for:
bsky.app/profile/amdi...
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Jack Pondit VSP
@jackpondit.bsky.social
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Sure, but Biden is incapable of changing those polls. Anyone else has a much better chance because they can articulate Democratic positions and forcefully attack Trump.
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jarsilver
@jarsilver.bsky.social
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Doesn’t this imply that more people are curious about other candidates? Trump’s numbers go down when someone else is the opponent.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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and like Osita suggests, the evidence that Harris would be a sure loser as standard-bearer just isn’t there bsky.app/profile/osit...
16 replies 25 reposts 475 likes
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Fuzzy Mike
@fuzzymike.bsky.social
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that’s actually interesting because it probably means I’m wrong about my expectation that Harris wouldn’t be associated with Biden’s missteps as strongly as Biden is
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Roxanne Darling 🌿
@roxannedarling.bsky.social
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Is there any polling evidence about how attached Black voters are to Kamala? Mr. Bouie asked repeatedly in the NyT convo, 'What about them?' with an implication they would bail in some fashion. It's too important of a question to be left unanswered.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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🦀 Shawn Morris 🦀
@theshawnmorris.bsky.social
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What's a little weird to me is that the progressive left as far as I can tell doesn't have like a consensus pick for who should replace Biden. There's no Bernie this time
2 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Dr. Fröhlich
@edgarallandoh.bsky.social
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Voter racism and sexism aside, Harris got sidelined and ignored for long periods of time. So if she is a weaker candidate, party and administration are at least partially to blame, IMHO
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Carpinche
@claiborne.bsky.social
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This is the first poll I've seen where Harris and Biden are running equally, which is interesting.
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Ash
@ashkendo.bsky.social
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I think people underestimate how much of this election is just motivated by “not Trump” for everyone not voting for Trump.
1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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Josh Manning
@joshmanning23.bsky.social
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He’d just dump his money into other account too.
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Ni en pedo
@300ps.bsky.social
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Might as well be Bart Simpson versus the Tasmanian Devil, those polls would look the same.
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@cmerlin.bsky.social
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Get Harris out more, hype her appearances to the media, and make people get comfortable with her. And start playing up the odds of the first black woman president happening in our lifetime! Even if it takes electing an old white guy.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Ron Cox
@monkyhead.bsky.social
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Cash on hand usable for presidential campaign in 2024*: Biden - $84,485,429 Harris - $84,485,429 Buttigieg - $0 Booker - $0 Newsom - $0 Whitmer - $0 Klobuchar - $0 Shapiro - $0 Pritzker - $0 *As of May 31
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Major Danger ⚠️
@majordanger.bsky.social
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We don’t need an instant bump by switching to Harris, either. We do need a candidate who can campaign and debate vigorously. Give me Harris’ numbers and her energy, prosecuting Trump on his criminality and abortion.
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Caroline (Carrie) T. Schroeder
@ctschroeder.bsky.social
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I’m also not sure these numbers tell us anything new. We’ve always known the dem floor is in the low to forties and the battle is for the last few points in battleground states. This chart reflects national party polarization as much as anything else
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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kth
@ktheintz.bsky.social
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Whatever one thinks of Kamala, the only way Biden drops out is if the drop-out chorus coalesces around her, and pretty quick.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Buttadeus
@thewanderingjew.bsky.social
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They’d also inherit the Biden campaign, which Harris has been a part of and the rest have not.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Steve Zorowitz
@stevezorowitz.bsky.social
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The only question is has Biden's ceiling been lowered and can another (meaning Harris, let's be real) have more upside. And..beats me.
2 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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A Sentient Pile of Spaghetti
@spagritty.bsky.social
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The Dems might be screwed by that stuff that always matters: how people feel about the economy. Letting the Fed raise interest rates to counter what was really monopoly pricing and supply chain issues hurt people in the pocket book. That's likely to stick to any candidate.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes