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eric gonzalez juenke@egojunk.bsky.social |
199 followers 320 following 376 posts
Personal account. I study racial and ethnic politics here: polisci.msu.edu/people/directory/juenke-eric.html
The Presidency and Immigration Policy: Rhetoric and Reality bit.ly/4cZUG9A
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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They will get there eventually but not sure they are there yet. This next week should resolve things one way or the other. House Dems meet tomorrow. Senate Dems ongoing meetings.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Dannagal G. Young
@dannagal.bsky.social
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Thoughts on why Dems can't see straight: In "Wrong," I explain how we humans don't really want to see the world as it really is. Instead, we're motivated by the 3 Cs: we want to feel like we Comprehend the world, like we have some Control over it, and like we are part of a Community. 🧵
1 replies 5 reposts 14 likes
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Omar Wasow
@owasow.bsky.social
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There’s also the Training Day problem: President can commit crimes, involve others and then gain leverage by threatening to withhold a pardon.
Keith Darden showed how selective enforcement against corruption was a way to wield power in Ukraine: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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The New York Times
@nytimes.com
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Breaking News: President Biden insisted he was staying in the race in a forceful speech at a campaign event in Wisconsin, calling Donald Trump a liar and a threat to democracy. “I’m not letting one 90-minute debate wipe out three-and-a-half years of work.”
24 replies 27 reposts 105 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Democrats: The way Republicans blame uncomfortable realities on media bias is pathological and undermines their ability to grapple with hard truths. Also (many) Democrats: The Joe Biden stories are the media's fault! The NYT is biased against him! etc etc etc
12 replies 6 reposts 46 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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I don’t know what’s gonna happen and I am personally agnostic about it (and I’ll stop after this) but this is not a media creation. People in the Democratic Party are doing this. Successful or not, Democratic insiders are pursuing this.
1 replies 3 reposts 0 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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I mean… bsky.app/profile/maxb...
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Jacob T. Levy
@jacobtlevy.bsky.social
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This chart communicates pretty effectively why it's taking a while for the last 18 months of good solid economic conditions to fully take hold in people's minds— because look at the three years of chaos before that.
www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07...
2 replies 14 reposts 34 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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We don’t. But “if the reporting is accurate” it’s multiple outlets reporting from multiple people around the president. This is his family saying (via WaPo) it depends on polls and donors. I guess this could all be made up, but there is a lot of smoke.
3 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Seems more than this. These quotes are coming from people in the WH, in the campaign, in the party, and in the family. Someone released the internal polling. Lots of people very close to him are talking. This seems more like an intra-party intervention through the media, not the other way around.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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I’ve been thinking a lot about “the party decides” theory in this scenario, and was hoping some smart folks would help out.
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Canada even has better rainbows.
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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At a speech in a church.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Amazing teaching resource!
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Ben Casselman
@bencasselman.bsky.social
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U.S. employers added 206,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, the first time it has been over 4% since November 2021. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07...
1 replies 2 reposts 4 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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What a creative research design x.com/JohnHolbein1...
Paper: t.co/KfeT7yV54c
2 replies 4 reposts 23 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Party insiders appear to be coordinating to try to replace Biden. I mean people who love him and are insiders on his team. People very close to him. Next week will be crucial /wild and I’m happily headed to the Candian woods. www.cnbc.com/2024/07/04/d...
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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There is clearly a coordinated campaign by *some* in the Democratic Party to make this an issue. The calls are coming from inside the house.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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As someone keeps asking, “Who is leaking this stuff?”
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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I've updated my advanced stats for the Congressional Women's Softball Game! Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leads the league with 0.5 WAR since 2022. #CWSG tinyurl.com/cwsgstats
0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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The possibility of a major party switching candidates 4 months before Election Day is the biggest story of this or any election (until it’s resolved). It’s odd to get mad at the press for reporting on it.
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Thanks for doing this! Great thread.
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Anna O Law
@unlawfulentries.bsky.social
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The Declaration of Independence was a series of grievances the colonists enumerated against King George III. The colonists wrote the document explaining why they were breaking away. There are a few line items having to do with colonial dissatisfaction with migration policies. (1/12)
2 replies 14 reposts 34 likes
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post malone ergo propter malone
@proptermalone.bsky.social
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1) I’d rather be up in the polls than down, all things equal. 2) I’m not sure I’d rather be Trump than Biden in the polls we actually have right now.
8 replies 15 reposts 171 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Another banger to blast today from your favorite band. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfQD...
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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I... I let them know my feelings in my comments to the editor (that they may not read if my numbers aren't high enough!). What a big middle finger to reviewers. We already have an ordinal scale of reject, accept, and R&R, now I feel like I have to game the system just to get them to read my review.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Every time I see stuff like this imagine it was designed by someone who would rather count than read. I cannot express how much I hate this for me as a reviewer/author and for our discipline as a whole.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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They do not paint a pretty picture for sure.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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The Chuck Knoll quote may apply here, “If you are thinking about retiring, you’ve already retired.” www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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This is the dopamine hit of social media. Interesting historical trivia.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Emily Farris
@emayfarris.bsky.social
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If you don’t know this important (to all Caesar salad and French fry folks) and truly American story of an Italian immigrant living in California with a restaurant in Tijuana serving American customers avoiding Prohibition bans on 4th of July - here you go: www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/d...
1 replies 3 reposts 2 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Is there a polisci version of Dr. Idz? Someone who debunks nonsense on social media using research? If not, why not?
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Danielle Pullan
@dmpullan.bsky.social
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It's officially conference season! Excited to meet lots of interesting people while also sleeping in my own bed this week at EPSA! I'm presenting a new paper with @bcastanho.bsky.social and @jwaeckerle.bsky.social investigating gender + power in parliaments. Come by Saturday morning 10am in MP7-314!
0 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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I don't have a dog in this fight. I am not sure it matters if it's Harris or Biden at the top of the ticket if Trump is on the ballot (+ the economy), but these are just interesting to me.
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Profs just hoping Dems figure this out before the semester begins in August.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Hans Noel
@profhansnoel.bsky.social
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Seems timely to re-post this about a convention choosing a replacement for its presidential nominee:
www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/o...
0 replies 1 reposts 0 likes
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Ingo Rohlfing
@ingorohlfing.bsky.social
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I’ve Stopped Using Box Plots. Should You? | Nightingale
nightingaledvs.com/ive-stopped-... #dataviz #StatSky I agree with much of what is written in the post. The box of the boxplot is intuitive, the whiskers not so much. 1/
1 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
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Mirya Holman
@mirya.bsky.social
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A new #MHAWS is out this morning about some concrete steps you can take when you JUST DON'T WANNA do any work. Big takeaways:
Eat dessert first
Start small
Go touch grass
miryaholman.substack.com/p/small-stuff
2 replies 3 reposts 9 likes
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Omar Wasow
@owasow.bsky.social
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My guess is if you could run a secret poll of all Dem members of Congress, governors, and other influential actors, a majority would now opt to have Harris 2024 over Biden 2024. But private coordination isn’t same as public call, so Biden folks are fighting any perception that “dam breaks,” until…
1 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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Polisci also tells us that the polls after media coverage of a bad debate will move. Obama lost an avg. 5-6 points against Romney after his bad first debate. Systematic stuff happening.
0 replies 3 reposts 3 likes
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Seth Masket
@smotus.bsky.social
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Biden is unpopular because Americans are unhappy with economic/political conditions and they blame the sitting president for it, not because he's old, and any other Democrat would be saddled with the same issues
14 replies 22 reposts 100 likes
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mark brandt
@mjbsp.bsky.social
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I made a Bluesky "starter pack" for political psychology. Suggests 50 people to follow and 3 feeds
go.bsky.app/T2Uc2Bx
5 replies 31 reposts 42 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Survey friends: If you might be interested or know someone, Verasight is offering discounted survey time ($1.50/respondent for up to 15 questions) for as many as 30k respondents in a potentially massive sample as part of the intake survey for a large study we're conducting. Contact me for details!
4 replies 12 reposts 19 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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This makes a bit more sense if you reverse it. Donald Trump for “all of this” is the deal that many political elites and voters have taken.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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The coverage is awful.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Tom Pepinsky
@tompepinsky.bsky.social
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Americanists and lawyers ask, what does the Constitution say? Comparativists ask, who controls the High Court, the militia, and the clerics?
7 replies 117 reposts 475 likes
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Julia Azari
@juliaazari.bsky.social
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on the one hand, i feel slightly ridiculous even discussing this. on the other, it's not nearly as ridiculous as much of the discourse, so here we go open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
1 replies 9 reposts 19 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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A reason a handoff to Harris makes more sense than an open convention is the delegates were not selected with any intention of ensuring they represent party groups and interests. Maybe in a future cycle but not now. Do people calling for an open convention even know anything about the delegates?
17 replies 3 reposts 126 likes
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eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
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This is one of the best soups you will ever eat and it's super easy and cheap. www.budgetbytes.com/african-pean...
3 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Saucy Rick Havoc
@rickhavoc.bsky.social
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See me for more people skills.
2 replies 4 reposts 28 likes