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Sam G. Howard@samghoward.bsky.social |
156 followers 257 following 1272 posts
Flag guy, Rhode Islander, and union data geek. Occasionally blogs at riliberator.com
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Tom Scocca
@tomscocca.bsky.social
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Just like none of the bold investigators backfilling Joe Biden's feeble debate performance with punchy anonymous quotes have ever figured out why Trump was rushed to Walter Reed, claimed he wanted a spur-of-the-moment weekend checkup, and a year later declared that he had NOT had a series of strokes
20 replies 330 reposts 1086 likes
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Taniel
@taniel.bsky.social
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Explosive reporting in Le Monde confirms what was apparent all week: Macron resisted the emergence of anti-far-right front after round 1. His PM, Attal, forced it as a fait accompli, & pressured for drop outs to block RN. Even then, Macron made some phone calls to undercut it.
15 replies 104 reposts 265 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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Barmy Brunch (Monster Raving Loony Party)
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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ryan cooper
@ryanlcooper.com
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good heavens www.ft.com/content/7410...
9 replies 24 reposts 106 likes
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Taniel
@taniel.bsky.social
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3 French polls out today…: Seat projections have: —Far-right (RN) 170 to 230 —Left 145 to 185 —Macronists 118 to 150 So: —Anti-RN front working better than expected, lowering RN. —Especially among left voters, which is saving Macronists. —New chance RN isn’t biggest group?
4 replies 15 reposts 64 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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One thing notable when looking at the data: the efforts in 2010 were much better at recruiting House candidates while the effort in 2022 was a lot better at getting Senate candidates. I didn’t mention this in the piece, but I think that speaks to the differences between the orgs doing recruitment.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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It’s hard to determine whether the record low Democratic primaries for RI General Assembly is because of cyclical reasons or because the organization mostly responsible for recruiting primary candidates in the last two election cycles is gone.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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“Godalming and Ash” sounds like a paranormal investigative team, but is in fact a UK constituency.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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ryan cooper
@ryanlcooper.com
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all these guys drive themselves and assume that's what everyone does, even though you can look out the window and see 1000 people walking and 10 cars
9 replies 16 reposts 120 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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Like, the worst turnout since 1918; the highest share of the vote to minor parties since Labour became a major party, a swing of just 1.6% for Labour over 2019… but their most important opponents (the Tories and the SNP) collapsed, so… first-part-the-post landslide!
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour's seat landslide is the headline bc of how it will affect government in the UK. But in terms of voter sentiment, most voters disaffected with Conservatives went to the right-wing Reform Party, not Labour. A warning for the future.
3 replies 22 reposts 64 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour is going to wind up with 63% of the seats in the House of Commons despite winning only 34% of the popular vote.
4 replies 6 reposts 33 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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Something that fascinates me about British politics is the way seat numbers obscures vote shares, so the narratives they tell about elections tend to be driven by the former instead of the latter.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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ryan cooper
@ryanlcooper.com
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fascinating. the Labour vote both as a percentage and in numerical terms is *much lower* than it was in 2017
10 replies 9 reposts 41 likes
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Sarah Posner
@sarahposner.bsky.social
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Washington Post has more on the story first in Politico the other day about the clashes between the Christian right and the Trump campaign/RNC on platform drafting.
It's getting heated, but what will it amount to? 🧵1/x
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
5 replies 24 reposts 52 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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42% of UK voters voted for a party other than Labour or Conservative. That's the most since they became the two major parties.
0 replies 4 reposts 12 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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Happy Fourth. I spent the day looking through old Countbooks to figure out how many Democratic primaries happened over the last two decades+.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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The award for innovation in nuisance hobbyist firework sounds goes to… those whistle-y ones.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Pavel
@spavel.bsky.social
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Remember how the "retail theft crime wave" disappeared as soon as companies had to do their annual reports? That's because it's illegal to lie to shareholders.
AI is booming (if you're a pleb) but if you have money - Goldman Sachs will be honest with you instead web.archive.org/web/20240629...
20 replies 732 reposts 1661 likes
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK, national parliament election: the Ipsos exit poll projects the governing Conservatives (CON~ECR) will fall to 131/650 seats. This would be the party’s worst result since 1906.
Special results page: europeelects.eu/uk2024/
#GE2024
0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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Jeebus, a 8-way General Assembly primary with frankly incredible turnout.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Moira Donegan
@moiradonegan.bsky.social
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Not to be corny but I do think the ongoing aspiration to make America a pluralist democracy of equals is righteous, beautiful, and worth honoring, even if it has more often been the struggle of minorities & dissenters than the policy of the government. 🇺🇸
22 replies 357 reposts 1646 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Article 1, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution.
constitution.congress.gov/browse/artic...
0 replies 4 reposts 19 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Alexander Hamilton, Federalist 69
avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century...
7 replies 41 reposts 91 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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I think it's less imaginable with Starmer aiming towards the center; the likely defectors would be people like the Change UK group who defected from Labour (and the Tories) at the end of Corbyn's leadership. It's hard to imagine that repeating under Starmer unless he badly mishandles government.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Aaron Huertas
@aaronhuertas.bsky.social
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Yascha Mounk joins the ranks of political pundits who are making it clear they have no idea how elections actually work. Anyone who can come up with a way for a party to self-organize a democratically legitimate primary in a month should just go ahead and lay it out!
4 replies 11 reposts 131 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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How would the Democrats even convince Republican-controlled state governments/election officials to run a re-do primary they haven’t budgeted for?
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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ryan cooper
@ryanlcooper.com
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"I spent a lot of money in that CVS, often multiple times a week, week after week, for years. If I wasn’t their very best customer on the consumer good side, I would like to meet my competition. And they drove me away, while providing me no mechanism to tell them why." itself.blog/2024/06/15/w...
5 replies 28 reposts 90 likes
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Taniel
@taniel.bsky.social
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Someone asked us... how does the malapportionment of districts in France and the UK compares to that in the US?
The answer in both countries is quite breathtaking. boltsmag.org/how-voting-w...
4 replies 13 reposts 59 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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Coming soon: in a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court has ruled states can’t amend their constitutions…
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis
@kendrawrites.bsky.social
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oh. another story that journalism actually does make enough money but not in the right way so it looks like its losing money. WaPo edition.
6 replies 63 reposts 204 likes
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ryan cooper
@ryanlcooper.com
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"viewing Trump as something like a fascist leader foresaw the violence of January 6th as a live possibility, while its critics mocked the notion as mere hysteria. Whatever its shortcomings, “Trump as fascist” remains the best guide to what Trump will try to do next"
5 replies 43 reposts 231 likes
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Adam Bonin
@adambonin.bsky.social
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There's no longer any ceiling to how wackadoodle Republican lawsuits can go. As @elliemargolis.bsky.social has flagged, the sovereign state of Missouri, being unable to invade or embargo New York, has instead sued it before SCOTUS to try to aid Trump, because ... reasons.
ago.mo.gov/wp-content/u...
19 replies 54 reposts 169 likes
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Timothy Ryan
@tjryan02.bsky.social
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I've seen surprisingly little coverage on the fact that, if I understand right, all jousting over an open nomination needs to be done two weeks *before* the convention starts. That, or Dems give up on Ohio (and throw Sen Brown under bus). Am I missing something?
www.nytimes.com/2024/05/28/u...
4 replies 2 reposts 10 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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Man about to get primaried.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan Murphy
@bungdan.bsky.social
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Presidential candidate who the far-right members of the Supreme Court just placed above the law tells voters how he will exercise his new powers.
29 replies 230 reposts 572 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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I think Harris is the ideal compromise position, because it means Biden supporters/replacement skeptics are annoyed, but the punditocracy also have to live with the choice they keep explicitly ruling out. (Also, just mechanically easier to do.)
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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@russms.bsky.social
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Six people did the thing that is supposed to require 2/3 of both chambers of Congress and 3/4 of the states to do
9 replies 138 reposts 677 likes
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Micah
@rincewind.run
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“democrats have to win every election forever” is not a sustainable solution and it is quite literally the one we are facing unless we break the power of this court
24 replies 272 reposts 1035 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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I know! It’s no Oneida, but the fun fact that sticks out to me is Guiteau had a carriage waiting to take him to jail after the assassination (and still tried to run). Also, imagine being the 2nd president to be assassinated, for basically nothing, and your assassin winds up more famous than you.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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“Charles Gitout”
1 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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I think, in primaries, those voters who do participate believe themselves to be Democrats, however they define that for themselves, and thus it’s bad politics to be like “this Democratic Party really blows, I hate ‘em; anyway, elect me as the Democratic candidate.”
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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I’m loathe to say that Matt Brown was progressive or left, but using him as the insurgent example, his opening argument for 2022 was “RI Democrats are the most corrupt party in America (and I should lead them).” Not hard to understand why most Democrats reacted to that by voting for someone else.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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I think this is a massively underrated reason we see progressive/lefty challengers fail in primaries in RI.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Larry Glickman
@larryglickman.bsky.social
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Durbin pulling his punches so as not to “ruffle the feathers” of Republicans is yet another example of preemptively attempting to prevent an expected backlash. Trying to placate the right in this way has failed over and over again, and it is important to note that the GOP rarely if ever does this.
10 replies 70 reposts 263 likes
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United Farm Workers
@ufw.bsky.social
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Today, the federal government put itself on the right side of history by seeking, for the 1st time, to establish the precedent that every worker in America has the right to shade, water & rest while working in temps that could kill them. -UFW President Teresa Romero
www.politico.com/news/2024/07...
12 replies 350 reposts 912 likes
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Sam G. Howard
@samghoward.bsky.social
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The people writing this kind of thing are acting like they can perfectly predict the odds of how the election will play out without considering any of the real downsides of what they’re wishcasting.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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The 14th Amendment says if you were involved in an insurrection you can't be president. SCOTUS said they won't allow anyone to enforce that because of reasons they made up. The Constitution doesn't say the president is immune from criminal law. SCOTUS decided he is because of reasons they made up.
72 replies 1116 reposts 3719 likes
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amdiamanti
@amdiamanti.bsky.social
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I would joke that they've declared the Declaration of Independence unconstitutional, but it doesn't feel like a joke. These were all "official acts" as well.
4 replies 24 reposts 72 likes
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☀️ Jon Schwarz ☀️
@schwarz.bsky.social
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1. Biden deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks says he's "scared as shit" by the Supreme Court's ruling giving Trump immunity
2. Biden deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks says Biden deeply respects the Supreme Court and refuses to use any power he has to challenge it pic.twitter.com/9ukHEV8EZA
33 replies 56 reposts 161 likes